Used prices dropping

[BeeBee]

Given our vehicles could never, whether old or new, be classified as anything other than expensive, it seems to me it’s always a matter of ‘how much do I want this’ and ‘how much use will I make of it’ and ‘how much joy does it give me’ those answers are why we buy, hold on to or sell. I honestly can’t see anyone buying as an investment, mind you I never could understand anyone who bought something and kept it ‘in the box’.

 

[WelshGas]

It isn't over but it's turned into something we just have to live with, as we do with many other viruses, and people are now getting back to 'normal life', however changed it may be.

We'll see. The 1st winter is the test.

 

[BugglePopples]

We'll see. The 1st winter is the test.

What restrictions were in place last winter?

 

[Ch1pbutty]

What restrictions were in place last winter?

Not many new vans were being delivered due to supply issues, so 2nd hand market saw a big boost as many would happily pay a premium for immediate delivery, rather than wait up to 12 months. Combined with e fact that VW announced price increase for 2022.

 

[WelshGas]

What restrictions were in place last winter?

I doubt if we will see any legal, imposed restrictions. Just larger ambulance queues, self imposed restrictions, increased influenza and covid cases and temporary morgues being set up.
Summer is the best time to drop restrictions, but winter will be the test of the Publics resolve in relation to what they are prepared to accept with regards to incidence of illness, hospital admissions and mortality.
Lockdowns and restrictions must be resisted, but if cases rise significantly I can see Scotland, Wales and Labour introducing and clamoring for restrictions. We shall see. But NHS colleagues are dreading this winter more so than last.

 

[AndyGreybeard]

I doubt if we will see any legal, imposed restrictions. Just larger ambulance queues, self imposed restrictions, increased influenza and covid cases and temporary morgues being set up.
Summer is the best time to drop restrictions, but winter will be the test of the Publics resolve in relation to what they are prepared to accept with regards to incidence of illness, hospital admissions and mortality.
Lockdowns and restrictions must be resisted, but if cases rise significantly I can see Scotland, Wales and Labour introducing and clamoring for restrictions. We shall see. But NHS colleagues are dreading this winter more so than last.

Time to enjoy camping, far from the madd(en)ing crowds, at quiet, trusted sites.
Here’s to good health and safely enjoying life whilst we can.
Andy

 

[Snowball1935]

It isn't over but it's turned into something we just have to live with, as we do with many other viruses, and people are now getting back to 'normal life', however changed it may be.

I bought our 2017 Caravelle in 2018, after keeping my Touran for over 9 years whilst waiting to afford the change (I tow a caravan). Then with one holiday in France and another in Cornwall, COVID struck and the caravan has stood in storage for nearly 3 years, and we have not been on holiday since.
Yes, COVID has turned into something else, but I arm now nearly 87 and recently needed to have vascular surgery. This, plus the long delay, has left us with difficulty in getting back the “spark”, and the caravan will need a full service before being put back into use.
My wife thinks we should sell the Caravelle AND the caravan and opt for a small motorhome (we have previously had motorcaravans), but I have tried to explain to her that I would not consider a vehicle with less than a Euro6 engine, which puts us way outside affording the motor homes she has been perusing, plus we would also need to have a small car for daily use.
My view is that we have two choices - either get the Caravelle-caravan outfit back on the road, or go for hiring holiday chalets and keep the Caravelle.
For me, the Caravelle has a very comfortable driving position and I could not contemplate going back to the cramped style of a conventional car - any replacement would have to be something like a BMW X3 or similar, so why change the Caravelle?
EV’s? - well, apart from various down sides that frequently arise, now Toyota are recalling theirs due to risks or the wheels falling off! Why? - I would have thought that the wheel-to-hub assembly detail would be no different to that for ICE cars.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

I bought our 2017 Caravelle in 2018, after keeping my Touran for over 9 years whilst waiting to afford the change (I tow a caravan). Then with one holiday in France and another in Cornwall, COVID struck and the caravan has stood in storage for nearly 3 years, and we have not been on holiday since.
Yes, COVID has turned into something else, but I arm now nearly 87 and recently needed to have vascular surgery. This, plus the long delay, has left us with difficulty in getting back the “spark”, and the caravan will need a full service before being put back into use.
My wife thinks we should sell the Caravelle AND the caravan and opt for a small motorhome (we have previously had motorcaravans), but I have tried to explain to her that I would not consider a vehicle with less than a Euro6 engine, which puts us way outside affording the motor homes she has been perusing, plus we would also need to have a small car for daily use.
My view is that we have two choices - either get the Caravelle-caravan outfit back on the road, or go for hiring holiday chalets and keep the Caravelle.
For me, the Caravelle has a very comfortable driving position and I could not contemplate going back to the cramped style of a conventional car - any replacement would have to be something like a BMW X3 or similar, so why change the Caravelle?
EV’s? - well, apart from various down sides that frequently arise, now Toyota are recalling theirs due to risks or the wheels falling off! Why? - I would have thought that the wheel-to-hub assembly detail would be no different to that for ICE cars.

I am mightily impressed with you planning camping holidays at 86. I hope I do the same.
Your problems seem complex and I am sure you know what you want best, but surely keeping the Caravelle and renting accomodation is the most economical and easy. I dont know, perhaps you want to camp with grandkids? If so, some campsites now rent caravans on site.
I hope you get away somewhere.

 

[Snowball1935]

I am mightily impressed with you planning camping holidays at 86. I hope I do the same.
Your problems seem complex and I am sure you know what you want best, but surely keeping the Caravelle and renting accomodation is the most economical and easy. I dont know, perhaps you want to camp with grandkids? If so, some campsites now rent caravans on site.
I hope you get away somewhere.

It’s just the two of us who go caravanning - grandkids all grown up and do their own thing. We have travelled all over France when we had a motorcaravan, but in recent years we have set up our caravan at one particular site and stayed for 6-7weeks.
I find it relaxing when driving in France - we never use the toll motorways, and enjoy the rural routes for their scenic beauty. Will we venture to France again? - I really hope so, but wife has serious doubts.

 

[Snowball1935]

We already know exactly the type of small motorhome we would like, as we came across one traded in at our local VW dealer in 2012. I would have bought it, had we not just bought a new caravan. It was a year old with 3,000 miles on the clock. We happened to be collecting my Touran from servicing when we spotted it. The salesman said he was not familiar with coachbuilt motor homes and said it would probably be sold for about £27,000 - actually a real steal. It had all the usual features including (essential for us) two settees which became full-sized single beds. A similar model now, with Euro6 engine, would be well out of our maximum budget.
The main reason for getting rid of our previous motorcaravan was because the seating was articulated to make beds - each bed in 3 sections and not really comfortable for a good night’s sleep, and any tendency to back problems become an immediate source of trouble. The California, or similar vehicles, do not meet our requirements when it comes to domestic accommodation.

 

[reserves]

I’d say asking prices have remained firm, however some used Cali's have been listed for months now and as summer holidays end may have to reduce to sell or hold onto next spring.

There’s some ‘interesting’ listings price wise in the classifieds at the moment that’s for sure!

 

[Ozzy Pete]

If inflation as suggested today rises to 18% I wouldn’t expect prices to drop. But then again if interest rates rise as suggested to 6 or 7% then who the hell knows what’s going to happen.

 

[SusiBus]

I think you need a very good quality crystal ball to have any idea in predicting what path the used prices of Californias will follow.
With inflation/interest rates/seasonal demand changes/supply problems/government policy changes/a war/and a little bit of climate change thrown into the mix, it's impossible to know. One thing I think is sure, it will be better than that of a V8 Range Rover.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

All the indicators suggest a worldwide recession is looming. In which case prices likely to drop as there will be more 2nd hand vehicles coming onto the market as people tighten the purse strings, try to release cash or forfeit on finance deals.

 

[Elmo3]

If inflation as suggested today rises to 18% I wouldn’t expect prices to drop. But then again if interest rates rise as suggested to 6 or 7% then who the hell knows what’s going to happen.

If IR’s reach 7%, it will be carnage. Businesses and jobs will be gone all over the place. As it is, 70% of pubs don’t think they’ll make it through the winter for example. We’d see forced property sales on a large scale and prices would tumble. To think the value of a van wouldn’t be impacted is optimistic at best! Remember, prices are set on the margin. Some will be liquidating whatever assets they have. Look at Rolex watches for example, they’re falling hard and people said they’d only ever increase in value. The wider car market is on the precipice IMHO. Dealers are stuffed full of overpriced stock they paid too much for and struggling to shift. There is only one way for prices against this backdrop.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

If IR’s reach 7%, it will be carnage. Businesses and jobs will be gone all over the place. As it is, 70% of pubs don’t think they’ll make it through the winter for example. We’d see forced property sales on a large scale and prices would tumble. To think the value of a van wouldn’t be impacted is optimistic at best! Remember, prices are set on the margin. Some will be liquidating whatever assets they have. Look at Rolex watches for example, they’re falling hard and people said they’d only ever increase in value. The wider car market is on the precipice IMHO. Dealers are stuffed full of overpriced stock they paid too much for and struggling to shift. There is only one way for prices against this backdrop.

If you are old enough to have had a mortgage in the 1970s then you will know this is all entirely possible. inflation at 23% and interest rates at 15%. I really don’t think younger people know how bad this is likely to get. I have lived through it once and really don’t relish the idea of going through it again. I’m not worried for myself or my wife but for my children and grandchildren.

 

[Hawthorn37]

If you are old enough to have had a mortgage in the 1970s then you will know this is all entirely possible. inflation at 23% and interest rates at 15%. I really don’t think younger people know how bad this is likely to get. I have lived through it once and really don’t relish the idea of going through it again. I’m not worried for myself or my wife but for my children and grandchildren.

No matter how good Cali’s are, to think that such a massive shock to the economy and peoples finances would not hit the value of used vehicles is probably off beam. If you’re planning is more like a 10 years horizon, then you shouldn’t worry too much, use your van well as long as you’re able.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

If you look at this in an entirely selfish way then 7% interest rates for those lucky enough to have savings would be a breath of fresh air after over 10 years of zero interest. BUT for anyone with a mortgage that’s not locked into a fix then it’s a total disaster and a good chance they just won’t be able to pay and lose their home. The thing is we just don’t learn from our previous mistakes, this has all happened before.

 

[Elmo3]

If you are old enough to have had a mortgage in the 1970s then you will know this is all entirely possible. inflation at 23% and interest rates at 15%. I really don’t think younger people know how bad this is likely to get. I have lived through it once and really don’t relish the idea of going through it again. I’m not worried for myself or my wife but for my children and grandchildren.

Don’t have to go back that far. 15% IR’s in the early 90’s. We have a whole generation who have only known zero interest rate policy, benign economic conditions and bail outs. The response to debt problems has been more debt. Think about covid, a global pandemic which brings the world to its knees with many businesses unable to even trade, and asset prices go up. That’s simply down to flooding everywhere with cash we haven’t got and now we’re paying the price. Add in Putin’s cleverly timed move and here we are. Whenever we’ve had periods of high inflation, interest rates have always risen to at least the inflation rate. Some say it’s different this time, we’ll see but we never learn from history.

 

[Stu@rt]

BoE only have 2 methods of attempting to control inflation. Interest rates or amend the amount of currency in circulation. Both of these fairly blunt instruments might work if the issue was a domestic one, but trying to use either to control international issues is futile and will not have the desired outcome in my humble opinion.

Out of pure curiosity, I just got a WBAC valuation on our year old Cali (Don't tell the wife!) And they are still offering more than I paid.

 

[andyinluton]

BUT for anyone with a mortgage that’s not locked into a fix then it’s a total disaster and a good chance they just won’t be able to pay and lose their home.

Inflation even with high interest rates is actually good news for most mortgage holders.

Inflation means your debt is decreasing in real terms - anyone that took out what was a fairly hefty interest only mortgage of £20k in the 70s probably stretched themselves in year one, had a 15% pay rise the next year & the next so the mortgage as a percentage of household outgoing was always dropping. By the 90s that £20k borrowed 25 years earlier is not quite a bit of loose change but not far off.

Getting back to Californias, high inflation means new ones are only going to get more & more expensive which should prop up 2nd hand values to a certain extent. Given a household squeeze many would loose a car & keep the Cali.

 

[soulstyledevon]

My wife works in the City and the latest reports are, spending is still happening, lots of high and middle earners have plenty of cash left over from Covid. Companies are still making huge profits at present and demand for premium and most products remain high.

This isn’t the 1970s…!!!

We have wage stagnation and excess profits caused by greed. No wonder every Tom Dick & Harry are calling for strike action.
It’s time for companies and shareholders to start looking at the bigger picture and sharing out wealth and profits fairly with all workers/staff to help balance out this cost of living crisis…

 

[JimP1992]

Why do people obsess over residuals with a Cali. Surely this is a dream vehicle for most who have bought one, and the intention is to keep it until they either outgrow it or wish to upgrade. Prices will likely stagnate or dip, but who really cares other than those looking to acquire one. Life’s too short to worry about fluctuations in prices, just enjoy your Cali.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

There will always be those that have and those that haven’t. Just like always. Dont we think it’s right to protect those that haven’t. You can’t spend more than you have that just leads to disaster.
At the moment NOBODY is running the country. We are just heading for the Iceburg.

 

[sidepod]

It’s time for companies and shareholders to start looking at the bigger picture and sharing out wealth and profits fairly with all workers/staff to help balance out this cost of living crisis…

Hands up all of those energy company shareholders who've sent back their dividends with the message "share this out".