Coronavirus Impact

[Amarillo]

Will I be able to keep a vet appointment?

 

[Seamelody]

If it’s not a routine issue, as I understand yes you can


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Joker 1299]

The times, they are a changing.

 

[T6 CFO]

Mike

 

[Joker 1299]

The times, they are a changing.

Let’s not turn this into a song line contest. Or, maybe we should?

 

[GrannyJen]

Let’s not turn this into a song line contest. Or, maybe we should?

 

[Joker 1299]

Don’t stand, don’t stand so, don’t stand so close to me.

 

[WelshGas]

Today’s funny video.

 

[pjm-84]

 

[Amarillo]

A more serious mathematical explanation of how we got here, and how we escape.

 

[pjm-84]

Very interesting. Thanks.

 

[T6 CFO]

Not something I thought I’d be watching with my bedtime cocoa.

Very good.


Mike

 

[SailSki]

Thanks for posting Tom - it is exactly the realization of the magnitude of this point that had me rethink some of what I am doing in Geneva, where the authorities narrowly decided not to go into full lockdown last Friday, but there is still more each person can do to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem.

 

[DrJuanKerr]

Noooo….. you mean like a lighter shade of green. I hope the Swimmer Canoeists haven't gone that way

.... almost mint lol. To be honest, I've not been there for almost 18 years but the shiny ones give accounts of what its like nowadays. When were you there? Being a rubber what's you involvement with the place? Just do your basic and that's it?

 

[ArunAlec]

WTF .....Then I spotted it!

 

[T6 CFO]

A more serious mathematical explanation of how we got here, and how we escape.

This observation I would hasten to add is not from me, so no questions please. I’m good at sums not maths


A few things things be aware of.....

1) like they say, you cannot extralopolate out in a straight line
2) the r2 number is based in 10 darapoints so not to be trusted. It wont be statistically significant - the f-test is one of the main checks for this, but they don't mention or talk about central limit theroum which is key
3) the r2 number assumes normal distribution
4) real world actions change the equation - I.e., Borris announcement yesterday or a vaccination.

I'd need to relook at the matchs for historic diseases to check but I would say a poisson distribution is more likely than a normal distribution with a steep incline early then a long tail negating a lot of the maths in the video.

Basically, by assuming normal distribution the maths assumes we will take as long to reach the peak from day 0 as we will to get back to 0 from the peak. I would say its far more likely is we reach the peak very quickly then takes a long time to go away with a long tail (as characterised by poisson) up to the point of vaccination where we will see a big drop off.



Mike

 

[NC19]

We were due to be going to Skye on Thursday (in the diary for the last 6 months, not an opportunistic trip as reported recently on the news), and the next big trip was to be in June/ July built around some friends’ wedding in SW France near the Pyrenees. Skye obviously definitely off, and our poor friends’ wedding plans now hanging by a thread....

 

[pjm-84]

.... almost mint lol. To be honest, I've not been there for almost 18 years but the shiny ones give accounts of what its like nowadays. When were you there? Being a rubber what's you involvement with the place? Just do your basic and that's it?

1991 to 98 when I was young and fitter. Lid in 1992. Training (PH1 & CC) and a blunt reminder by the PTIs not to go to sea. Thought about moving across, but too many commitments and civiy job paid 4x the daily rate of a 1st Class Mne. Moved down South and didn't fancy the trip to Whale

 

[pjm-84]

This observation I would hasten to add is not from me, so no questions please. I’m good at sums not maths


A few things things be aware of.....

1) like they say, you cannot extralopolate out in a straight line
2) the r2 number is based in 10 darapoints so not to be trusted. It wont be statistically significant - the f-test is one of the main checks for this, but they don't mention or talk about central limit theroum which is key
3) the r2 number assumes normal distribution
4) real world actions change the equation - I.e., Borris announcement yesterday or a vaccination.

I'd need to relook at the matchs for historic diseases to check but I would say a poisson distribution is more likely than a normal distribution with a steep incline early then a long tail negating a lot of the maths in the video.

Basically, by assuming normal distribution the maths assumes we will take as long to reach the peak from day 0 as we will to get back to 0 from the peak. I would say its far more likely is we reach the peak very quickly then takes a long time to go away with a long tail (as characterised by poisson) up to the point of vaccination where we will see a big drop off.



Mike

I need to stick that in the Google Translator.

 

[Joker 1299]

I need to stick that in the Google Translator.

Funny that, I was just thinking that about your post above!

 

[T6 CFO]

I need to stick that in the Google Translator.

And me. From one of my boys who I knew would find it interesting.

I put Poisson distribution in and that was enough for me

Home schooling material


Mike

 

[pjm-84]

Funny that, I was just thinking that about your post above!

Mne = Marine
Going to sea = Getting fat
PTI = Evil people in white tops (Physical training instructor)
CC = Commando Course
PH1 = Phase 1 training
Whale = Whale Island Portsmouth
SC or Swimmer Canoeist = SBS

 

[Sp0_0k]

We were due to be going to Skye on Thursday (in the diary for the last 6 months, not an opportunistic trip as reported recently on the news), and the next big trip was to be in June/ July built around some friends’ wedding in SW France near the Pyrenees. Skye obviously definitely off, and our poor friends’ wedding plans now hanging by a thread....☹

And those plans can delay for loooong. We already have talks in government about borders closed up to 2 years.

 

[kave]

I don't know if this has been linked to here before but this man have som interesting statistics:

Coronavirus spread is slowing - Says Israeli Nobel Laureate

Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near."

www.jpost.com

'

 

[ArunAlec]

Mne = Marine
Going to sea = Getting fat
PTI = Evil people in white tops (Physical training instructor)
CC = Commando Course
PH1 = Phase 1 training
Whale = Whale Island Portsmouth
SC or Swimmer Canoeist = SBS

Whale Island..... used to sail the Dockyard Sailing Club’s Bosuns there.