Some good news, for now. Dealer let me know we have moved from a status 00 (Assigned to factory order no production week scheduled) to status 10 (Factory ordered with production week scheduled).
From a factory POV a 10 usually means they then send out orders for all the JIT (just in time) parts to their suppliers. When those parts all come back as confirmed that is generally when a vehicle is solid in the build schedule and likely moves to a 20. I don't know for certain but knowing how the vans come roofless and empty from the nearby T6 plant I would assume a 10 means the van is pretty well scheduled in for build there.
Our confirmed order for a fully loaded Ocean, apart from 4M and tow, was 23rd July 21.
So, our week is tentatively set as W18 - so 2nd May. We were (pre the current issues) told it was a solid "April Build" so a two week delay seems about on par with the way things have been going.
Just awaiting the hallowed 20, production confirmed. He says another full factory update to dealers due next week so will let us know if anything changes. The 10 of course can come forward or go back. C'est la vie.
I watch this thread avidly and the level of conjecture and FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) that is put out from well meaning but hearsay or "I head" sources has me putting my hands firmly in my pockets many days to stop replies. Luckily I read german too, and their newspaper sources have been pretty reliable, especially NDR.
Good luck to all others out there - having worked with OEM car factory productions systems in an older life these things are pretty complex and while there sometimes seems to be no rhyme or reason behind what is going on, there generally are very good reasons for where each vehicle is sat in the pipeline. Keep the faith...