Are prices due to crash?

[Niborn]

I just took delivery of a 22 Ocean. Cost me £58k new (ordered 31st March 2021). I have just been offered £80k for it. This is ridiculous. Not worth selling as I'd have to pay the same to get a new one.

Amazing

 

[Niborn]

Why do you say that?

Regardless of what it is that someone is selling, if the item is in short supply and demand exists, then by definition it's a sellers market.

Currently this site has 45 Calis for sale. Only ten of them are Beaches.
VW Commercial have 35 used Calis advertised. Only 10 of those are Beaches.
Autotrader currently have 75 Calis for sale of which Only 17 are Beaches.

So whilst all three of these main California used vehicle sources have a combined 155 vehicles for sale at present, Only 37 are Beaches. If you then remove those older examples with high mileage and the number is considerably less. Of those remaining, how many are still in warranty with anything more than a fairly basic spec? I would suggest very few indeed.

So even allowing for the higher than usual numbers of used Calis being offered for sale, dealers and private individuals can ask good money for low mileage Beaches with a good spec. They are in short supply as are new ones.

Based on these figures there are currently three other Cali variants for sale for every one Beach!

Good point

 

[CaliforniaBen]

I have been looking at the ads for a while now, very very few are selling and most are just reducing, someone has just put a 2017 4Motion up for sale for £70k

 

[2into1]

I have been looking at the ads for a while now, very very few are selling and most are just reducing, someone has just put a 2017 4Motion up for sale for £70k

With 44k miles.....

 

[pearcejim]

We have our Beach advertised at just under 30K, been very little interest. A chap was keen however changed his mind due to rising fuel prices. Another offered me 25K over the phone.
Sign of things to come, housing market starting to slow too.......peoples bills going sky high etc etc...
I was beginning to think try auto trader but things not selling on there either.
Luckily we don't need to sell

 

[Anthony1]

Amazing

I would sell it and buy a second hand one. And put the £21,000 towards my electricity bill.

 

[soulstyledevon]

We have our Beach advertised at just under 30K, been very little interest. A chap was keen however changed his mind due to rising fuel prices. Another offered me 25K over the phone.
Sign of things to come, housing market starting to slow too.......peoples bills going sky high etc etc...
I was beginning to think try auto trader but things not selling on there either.
Luckily we don't need to sell

Perhaps the Russian famine is starting to have an effect. Once sanctions are lifted only then we see a return to semi-nomal…

 

[GrannyJen]

No doubt fuel prices are having an effect.

My Skoda Fabia, bought as an ex-demo with the loose change I got from selling Alfie last July, is now getting a WBAC valuation of £1,000 more than what I paid for it.

 

[LisaKent]

Mine was for sale for about 4 weeks and had very little interest even though I reduced it several times , I had several people make silly offers which were rejected. I am now going to use it until the end of the season which may be a big mistake as I feel prices will drop even further by then

 

[Azteccamper]

Let’s be honest the market is flooded van type conversions as well. As far as I can see they are dropping back to real values - not a problem if you are using it and keeping it anyway. They were only going to go one way.
I expect to see the same with cars this winter as well. I fear we’re in for a miserable 12 months with the cost of everything - there’s going to be some very poor people about

 

[soulstyledevon]

Let’s be honest the market is flooded van type conversions as well. As far as I can see they are dropping back to real values - not a problem if you are using it and keeping it anyway. They were only going to go one way.
I expect to see the same with cars this winter as well. I fear we’re in for a miserable 12 months with the cost of everything - there’s going to be some very poor people about

It’s only stupid people who got caught up buying depreciating asset’s, at over-inflated prices. They thought they could buy a van, run it for three years and sell it for break-even/profit.
Dreamers…!!!

 

[Honestviking1]

So is the opinion that the California is now a depreciating asset and it is unwise to put in an order for a new one or even buy second hand?
I just have, a new Beach Camper. Do I feel unwise? Not a jot.
The wait and thrill of hand over day will, I believe, be worth it.

 

[soulstyledevon]

So is the opinion that the California is now a depreciating asset and it is unwise to put in an order for a new one or even buy second hand?
I just have, a new Beach Camper. Do I feel unwise? Not a jot.
The wait and thrill of hand over day will, I believe, be worth it.

It’s always been a depreciating asset.
Absolute brilliant purchase, if you’re buying with your eyes wide open.

 

[66tim99]

It’s always been a depreciating asset.
Absolute brilliant purchase, if you’re buying with your eyes wide open.

Although there’s an anomaly at the moment where eg my Ocean with 4000 miles on the clock has appreciated £4000 since I bought it 8 months ago…
…according to Motorway who will know they can sell it for more than that

 

[Ch1pbutty]

It’s only stupid people who got caught up buying depreciating asset’s, at over-inflated prices. They thought they could buy a van, run it for three years and sell it for break-even/profit.
Dreamers…!!!

I know of at least 10 people who have put down deposits on a Buzz with no intention of taking delivery. They just want to make say £500 by transferring the order to someone else prior to delivery…return better than putting money in the bank.

 

[Anthony1]

I know of at least 10 people who have put down deposits on a Buzz with no intention of taking delivery. They just want to make say £500 by transferring the order to someone else prior to delivery…return better than putting money in the bank.

Its not that good, not much range. It needs a couple of years to be properley developed.

 

[scottk]

I see there is an Ocean for sale on Autotrader for over £91k! Not new and from a dealer. The well priced ones are definitely going.

 

[soulstyledevon]

I know of at least 10 people who have put down deposits on a Buzz with no intention of taking delivery. They just want to make say £500 by transferring the order to someone else prior to delivery…return better than putting money in the bank.

You can’t transfer the order and it’s only one per household.
Might be worth buying and re-selling as initially there’s limited stock and the mass movement to EV is happening, so potentially a quick buck to be made until production and supply increases.
But above, I’m talking about the California and the brief period which some thought would last forever…

 

[soulstyledevon]

I see there is an Ocean for sale on Autotrader for over £91k! Not new and from a dealer. The well priced ones are definitely going.

I think you’d be brave sinking £91k into a California at the moment…

 

[66tim99]

I think you’d be brave sinking £91k into a California at the moment…

Suppose for some £15k might be worth avoiding the 12 month wait but ordering new and buying an older Cali in the mean time would make sense to me. Can always cancel the order if I don’t get on with it, or sell it for what I bought it for next year and pocket the £15k

 

[Elmo3]

I think you’d be brave sinking £91k into a California at the moment…

Crackers. Just order one at 8% discount and spend the difference on hotels whilst you’re waiting. As soon as supply (of all vehicles) starts coming through, it’ll be discounts galore again as they chase the volume. Only snag is, we’re likely to be in recession. Ooops. £91K Cali anyone?

 

[Adamvanman]

I would be very very nervous buying brand new at the moment unless I was 100% going to keep it long term , as said above prices are dropping now but I think it will be much worse next year

 

[WelshGas]

At the moment 2nd hand prices are extortionate compared with New.
However as 2nd hand prices re-adjust dropping below New then there will come a time when in order to maintain New vehicle sales Standard Options and increasing Discounts maybe even disguised price cuts may become the norm.
Many Californias appear to be 3rd vehicles rather than everyday vehicles and purchased on PCP. It will be interesting to see what happens as the family finances are hit .

 

[apreading]

My take is this:
1) prices of good second hand vehicles have risen across the board because of supply problems/shortages
2) prices of campervans have risen across the board because of increased demand due to COVID and increased desirability due to promotion of the 'lifestyle' by youtube/instagram
3) Some people were desperate and would pay over and above the correct price, even after the above two price increase factors - because of this some vans were advertised for 'silly money' and some of them may have even sold for that silly money, although many probably ended up getting reduced or withdrawn from sale

I think the silly money sales have pretty much dried up, so it will only be the odd one advertised at that price, which will stick around until withdrawn or reduced.
I am not convinced that the 'reasonable' priced ones have gone down yet, but may be about to as demand reduces a bit and what is left eventually gets gradually met by supply increases.
But I still think prices will stay forever a bit higher than they were a few years ago - rather than used prices go down, I think new prices will go up.

Depreciation will start to take place again but for factory build Calis, depreciation was always lower than pretty much if not every other vehicle on the road.

When they stop making the T6.1, they dont yet have a viable platform to replace it and it looks like it will be replaced by something less practical at the moment which will take a few iterations to really make sense. And the replacement electric vehicles will be horrendously expensive. All of which will support the price of current Californias, particularly Euro 6 onwards (earlier/'dirtier' ones may be hit in the future).

 

[Corradobrit]

I priced a similar spec Ocean to my Coast on the German VW configurator and the current list price is tickling €100K. As a consequence I don't see used prices on recent, low mileage examples falling anytime soon.
Covid is alive and kicking and in many parts increasing (we just don't get the daily ear bashing about it on the news). Yes the recession is coming but a large proportion of the population who might be future owners are mostly insulated from all these cost of living increases. It may make some take stock and think a little longer but ultimately if their interest is peaked they will buy one. Since new orders are taking 12-18 months to materialise, these fortunates will pay above the odds to buy a newer Campervan now.
I'm glad I ordered when I did, could wait out the delivery delays and will have the Cali perfectly spec'ed for my needs.