Are prices due to crash?

[DevillBelgium]

Been checking mine week on week and massive drop over past seven days, I even tried the Motorway and the bids from dealers were all around £10k off the mark, looks like that bubble is on verge of bursting

Asking price is just to much for most. If you can find a new with 0 miles on the counter and you have to pay 5 or 10k more for the same with plus 30.000 miles? At least I know what my choice would be. Then again a dealer has to make some on selling it again.

 

[chockswahay]

I think WBAC are over rated…… they rarely offer a fair price and are (understandably) seeking to buy at the lowest price possible in order to maximise their profit. On the very few occasions that I have tried them (non VW) their offers were laughable!

I don’t really care what the so say value of my Cali is …… to us it is priceless

 

[Amarillo]

 

[blondebier]

I'll give you 5 of our best Sussex hens for it. I'm robbing myself blind.

 

[Amarillo]

May 2021…

 

[Elmo3]

Oooof. I sense there will be plenty of sellers advertising for a long time, unless they want / need to sell.

 

[andyinluton]

The we Buy any Car low prices are because they have had a sudden rush of people checking prices, their clever algorithm thinks everyone is bailing out due to the numbers. Historicaly they always drop in October & come back up again in spring.

I'm trying to do a deal at the moment & have a £20k difference trade in between best & worst price. With Motorways figure sitting nearly £15k above We Buy Anycars.

 

[Calimili]

There was a thread not long ago , a survey of how many have the Cali as the only vehicle. This thread.
For slighlty more than the half, 53% is their Cali their only vehicle.
This type of result is only possible in a Cali forum, or MP forum. On the Big whites forum, grand Californias and the like converted big vans I'd be surprised if the same question would achieve 1% of positive answers. Again it boils down to those 5m long and 2m high dimensions.
I am confident of the remaining 47% at least half of it use them as a second car and again it is unlikely that any big white is used as a second car by wives/husbands for daily errands.
This is why I think it is unlikely that we will see a bubble pop in the second hand market for Calis. Californias can be kept and used offering a service during the week and one day weekend trips. If sold the great majority of people would have to buy another car anyway, as a Cali is not only for holiday.
I am also convinced in one or two years we'll see a market flooded with young vans/motorhomes, but I don't think there will be a more than usual offer of second hand Calis, therefore with no downwards price pressure.

 

[Azteccamper]

The we Buy any Car low prices are because they have had a sudden rush of people checking prices, their clever algorithm thinks everyone is bailing out due to the numbers. Historicaly they always drop in October & come back up again in spring.

I'm trying to do a deal at the moment & have a £20k difference trade in between best & worst price. With Motorways figure sitting nearly £15k above We Buy Anycars.

I think the algorithm and cookies remember your data and will decrease your price if you continue to ask it. I was told that online travel companies do this to increase the price of your holiday if you continue to search for weeks without deleting your past search history. Not sure how true it is but makes sense.

 

[larrylamb]

I'm trying to do a deal at the moment & have a £20k difference trade in between best & worst price. With Motorways figure sitting nearly £15k above We Buy Anycars.

Are you moving on from your GC?

 

[soulstyledevon]

Are you moving on from your GC?

I wondered that…

 

[Amarillo]

Prices are falling…

March 2017 (new) £42,222
March 2018 WBAC £28,730
March 2021 WBAC £30,315
May 2021 WBAC £34,505
July 2021 WBAC £37,270
August 2021 WBAC £36,150

Latest update… price crash:

March 2017 (new) £42,222
March 2018 WBAC £28,730
March 2021 WBAC £30,315
May 2021 WBAC £34,505
July 2021 WBAC £37,270
August 2021 WBAC £36,150
October 2022 WBAC £23,810

 

[SusiBus]

Never seen so many Californians for sale. 140 on Autotrader, 4 pages on the VW site, and loads on the forum. Prices still seem to be holding reasonably, but with so much choice for buyers is it only time ?

 

[soulstyledevon]

Never seen so many Californians for sale. 140 on Autotrader, 4 pages on the VW site, and loads on the forum. Prices still seem to be holding reasonably, but with so much choice for buyers is it only time ?

I guess there’s advertised price and sold price.
With a lot to choose from and Covid restrictions a distant memory, perhaps price are due a much needed fall…

 

[soulstyledevon]

Latest update… price crash:

March 2017 (new) £42,222
March 2018 WBAC £28,730
March 2021 WBAC £30,315
May 2021 WBAC £34,505
July 2021 WBAC £37,270
August 2021 WBAC £36,150
October 2022 WBAC £23,810

Still.
After 5 years of ownership, the Beach retains 55% of its original value. That’s not bad, however there appears to be a real downturn in values from where it stood 18months ago…

 

[The Merle]

Latest update… price crash:

March 2017 (new) £42,222
March 2018 WBAC £28,730
March 2021 WBAC £30,315
May 2021 WBAC £34,505
July 2021 WBAC £37,270
August 2021 WBAC £36,150
October 2022 WBAC £23,810

Price may have dropped loads due to mileage and now over 4yrs old plus time of year.

 

[two-saabs]

Never seen so many Californians for sale. 140 on Autotrader, 4 pages on the VW site, and loads on the forum. Prices still seem to be holding reasonably, but with so much choice for buyers is it only time ?

I still think there is a statistical problem of small numbers here, 140… small compared to what? Last year? Wasn’t there a huge supply problem last year?

There’s over 60 million people in the UK, I think it only takes a tiny tiny change to steer people towards or away from Californias (or anything else with such a small supply).

 

[andyinluton]

I still think there is a statistical problem of small numbers here, 140… small compared to what? Last year? Wasn’t there a huge supply problem last year?

There’s not 140 for sale, there are 140 adverts, one van accounts for eight of those!
There’s bound to be more every year as there are more vans out there & the numbers don’t look drastically different to any other year.

 

[andyinluton]

Still.
After 5 years of ownership, the Beach retains 55% of its original value. That’s not bad, however there appears to be a real downturn in values from where it stood 18months ago…

The beach used in the example was a cheap preregistered demonstrator, the figures would be worse for a van starting with the first owners figures.

There’s a few reasons for current WBAC values.
At 5 years they are getting to the point where main dealers are not interested, October - March are always the lowest values.
Rumour has it that WBAC are running out of money.

 

[Defender90]

The beach used in the example was a cheap preregistered demonstrator, the figures would be worse for a van starting with the first owners figures.

There’s a few reasons for current WBAC values.
At 5 years they are getting to the point where main dealers are not interested, October - March are always the lowest values.
Rumour has it that WBAC are running out of money.

I put mine in to motorway the other day out of interest it’s 2 years old next month 14k miles I paid 67k they offered 71k so prices are still strong on the newer models

 

[soulstyledevon]

I put mine in to motorway the other day out of interest it’s 2 years old next month 14k miles I paid 67k they offered 71k so prices are still strong on the newer models

Try again now…

 

[Defender90]

Try again now…

Just did now £70,662.00 very happy with that

 

[Annik]

Can’t believe a dealer would pay that as no margin

 

[The Merle]

Another reason why there’s more calis for sale then any other time is the fact there’s now more calis in the world.
Each year loads more are produced and sold, very few older ones for sale.
I can imagine there’s only a very tiny number scraped/written off so the pool grows each year.

 

[two-saabs]

There’s not 140 for sale, there are 140 adverts, one van accounts for eight of those!
There’s bound to be more every year as there are more vans out there & the numbers don’t look drastically different to any other year.

I didn’t come up with the 140 or say they were for sale, or do my own deduplicating to verify unique sales… because my point was that whatever this number is, it doesn’t tell any story on its own.