Are prices due to crash?

[turnitdown]

So using some simple maths. A £64k Cali is double the 2007 price therefore if it loses £12k over the next 17 years it will still be worth £52k in 2040?

Hopefully. That said, if only £52k would still be worth £52k in 2040.

I think it would be more like this: The £64k in 2024 pounds buys a van that (hopefully) is £52k in 2040 in 2040 pounds, which is about £26k in 2024 pounds. So in 2024 pounds the 16 years of ownership costs £38k of depreciation in 2024 pounds, which is less than £2500 a year.

 

[ajdowson]

The

http://The rule of thumb is +\- 0.5...Mileage does have a significant £ adjustment.

I’m starting to question whether any early 2016 T6 is worth over £40k now, when you see what you can get a 2019 for.

 

[reserves]

Not a ‘crash’ but definitely seeing adjustments but could be seasonal.

‘T7’ California pricing released and order books open soon which will be interesting.

 

[JuanVecino2023]

Not a ‘crash’ but definitely seeing adjustments but could be seasonal.

‘T7’ California pricing released and order books open soon which will be interesting.

“Prices start at £63,376 for Beach, £70,575 for Coast and £77,476 for Ocean.”

 

[larrylamb]

“Prices start at £63,376 for Beach, £70,575 for Coast and £77,476 for Ocean.”

Just under £3K increase for the Ocean. % Discount will be interesting on the new one, there doesn't seem to be an army of owners looking to "upgrade".

 

[reserves]

Just under £3K increase for the Ocean. % Discount will be interesting on the new one, there doesn't seem to be an army of owners looking to "upgrade".

I expected the Ocean to be £85k minimum.

Though the prices for the Hybrid hasn’t been released yet. The hybrid could really work for some people, especially those that use the Cali as their main car.

Do the shopping, local commute etc on electric and fuel on longer trips.

I think it looks ace personally even with all its negatives, but then I use the Cali a lot for solo surf trips, but can see how it might lack storage for when we go away as a family.

 

[soulstyledevon]

I’m not sure the maths add up correctly?
Factor in inflation and those residuals fall a lot further.
Then factor in, any cost of borrowing at current rates…

 

[reserves]

I’m not sure the maths add up correctly?
Factor in inflation and those residuals fall a lot further.
Then factor in, any cost of borrowing at current rates…

What maths, buying a new T7?

 

[Jay586]

I saw this and then when I googled, couldn't find any detail...

I really could do with seeing one irl. Do they have them on display in Germany? (I could also do with a holiday!)

 

[Agnes_Cali]

I expected the Ocean to be £85k minimum.

Though the prices for the Hybrid hasn’t been released yet. The hybrid could really work for some people, especially those that use the Cali as their main car.

Do the shopping, local commute etc on electric and fuel on longer trips.

I think it looks ace personally even with all its negatives, but then I use the Cali a lot for solo surf trips, but can see how it might lack storage for when we go away as a family.

I use Cali for commuting in London and mpg is not bad, so it would have to be huge economy difference to upgrade and save money on fuel. But hybrid is probably heavier, so there might not be a lot of difference to economy on longer trips. And longer van could be an issue when parking.

I went thought this comparison between BMW Z4 2.0l vs Lexus hybrid. On paper Lexus was faster, but in real life BMW was faster and more economical, because it didn't carry batteries. And at the time, I didn't do city commuting.

 

[pjm-84]

I’m not sure the maths add up correctly?
Factor in inflation and those residuals fall a lot further.
Then factor in, any cost of borrowing at current rates…

The cost of the T7 will reflect on residuals. The fact its priced high will help as the difference becomes too great to justify. Now if the T7 had a knock out blow, then that may have been different. I don't think it does when considering what people want them for. Now VW maybe looking to create another market.

 

[reserves]

Hmm. Which one would I go for?

(Edit, sorry out the price for the T7 Coast by mistake.

The T7 Ocean starts at £77,476)





Basic economics should suggest release of the T7 will affect T6.1 residuals.

 

[pjm-84]

One extreme, one starting point. We are talking residuals where the T7 price will be higher as its new compared to a secondhand T5 or T6.

As someone who could pay 40k to change, I wouldn't, as it doesn't offer any significant benefit. The opposite in fact.

 

[reserves]

One extreme, one starting point. We are talking residuals where the T7 price will be higher as its new compared to a secondhand T5 or T6.

As someone who could pay 40k to change, I wouldn't, as it doesn't offer any significant benefit. The opposite in fact.

Guess we’re talking from different angles.

I enjoy keeping a track on all California prices.

With the release of the T7 plus, the general economy, plus the end of the T6 1 it’s an interesting time.

Like I said, I feel like there’s been a reset already, regardless of the T7. The T7 just adds an extra element to it all.

 

[pjm-84]

Probably....its sort of connected with my job..... so I need to look forward / understand / second guess market requirements / expectations rather than keeping track....

 

[soulstyledevon]

I meant the man maths on used T6 prices.
£50k in 2017 is a different number to £50k today when you consider the impact of inflation.

 

[willwander]

I meant the man maths on used T6 prices.
£50k in 2017 is a different number to £50k today when you consider the impact of inflation.

I love a bit of man maffs

 

[soulstyledevon]

I love a bit of man maffs
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Great post Will…

 

[JuanVecino2023]

I expected the Ocean to be £85k minimum.

Though the prices for the Hybrid hasn’t been released yet. The hybrid could really work for some people, especially those that use the Cali as their main car.

Do the shopping, local commute etc on electric and fuel on longer trips.

I think it looks ace personally even with all its negatives, but then I use the Cali a lot for solo surf trips, but can see how it might lack storage for when we go away as a family.

I agree. Awesome weekend van/daily family car with proper rear seats.

Perfect for a couple or surf weekend, festival etc.

I sense the pushback is more from existing T owners whose use case is longer term camping, family camping etc.

That’s an increasingly crowded space in the aftermarket conversions, which have moved a long way beyond a jobbing builder with some leftover MDF and carpet to cover the walls.

On the other hand, there’s not a lot of cars (which the MV really is), that you can sleep in. Perhaps VW are onto something.

I don’t think I will buy one. But I think I get the use case.

 

[pjm-84]

Not if its the 1.4litre option.

 

[turnitdown]

I love a bit of man maffs
View attachment 129799
View attachment 129800

what calculator is that? The Bank of England calendar puts 50k in 2017 at just under £65k in August 2024.

 

[reserves]

Can someone explain to me what point is being made with these inflation posts.

Is it being said that older Calis were better value or that they are effectively the same price as today?

 

[soulstyledevon]

That California residual’s are not what they appear to be. Some owners are forgetting that inflation needs to be factored into the costs.

 

[Velma's Dad]

That California residual’s are not what they appear to be. Some owners are forgetting that inflation needs to be factored into the costs.

Anyone care to do a Mars Bars Index calculation, then we can all be certain?

 

[reserves]

Let me make sure I’ve got this right.

We purchased our first Cali for £41,000 in 2014

We sold it in 2020 for £39,500

Let’s say £40k from 2014 was only worth £30k 2020 due to inhalation.

Did I not do ok then?

What I don’t understand is that my £40k would’ve been only worth £30k in 2020 if I bought a Cali or hid the cash under the pillow?