Diesel ban 2030

[Simon1]

Anyone concerned about this new law banning new petrol/diesel vehicles from 2030 that is likely to come in, affecting the medium to long term value of their vans? Will the price of diesel rocket or will the trade in secondhand vehicles keep prices and demand buoyant until they’ve served their full life span. Not that there is any choice now unlike with with cars, but it’s just something that has been in my mind since ordering.

 

[Hotel California]

2030 ....i will be close to my retirement and my diesel Cali wil be 18y if still mine...
Nothing to worry about for now , who can say now what our world leaders actually discide by then?
Live now worry later ...some people i knew my age and younger then me are dead and burried allready due cancer, etc...
If you want a GC now , get it asap

 

[Velma's Dad]

Anyone concerned about this new law banning new petrol/diesel vehicles from 2030 that is likely to come in, affecting the medium to long term value of their vans?

No. No more than I expect the value of David Hockney's paintings to fall when he dies.


Seriously, if you've already ordered your van and are committed to the purchase, or like most of us on the forum already own one, the future value (and we're really talking a lot of years downstream) of the asset is immaterial, it's a sunk cost. Don't spend time worrying about it, get out (Pfizer permitting) and enjoy your van.

[EDIT] When I said Pfizer-permitting, I was talking about... not about their little blue lozenges... oh god.

 

[Slowdriver]

I would think it should be clear by now that you can take Boris out of the newspaper business but you can't take the headline grabber out of Boris. He has repeatedly demonstrated that what he says is going to happen and what subsequently happens are almost entirely unrelated. The idea that this government, and maybe any UK government, can install the necessary infrastructure to enable all new car buyers from 2030 onwards to buy an electric car and be certain of being able to readily access public charging points, is laughable. So I think you'll get at least 15 and probably 20 years out of your diesel powered camper.

 

[Wild Bob]

It is a concern to me, but cannot do anything about it. We have 12 month old Cali Ocean 2k only and are thinking about trading in for a bigger van 6m. With this announcement at lunch time I am not sure what to do now

 

[Wogga]

Not me at all, it was always coming and since the U.K. are heading up G7 next year it’s a nice sound bite. A target had to be set, whether it achieved is another matter, saying the U.K. or the Gov can’t do it is immaterial, can vehicle manufacturers do it and do the general public want it.

 

[Simon1]

2030 ....i will be close to my retirement and my diesel Cali wil be 18y if still mine...
Nothing to worry about for now , who can say now what our world leaders actually discide by then?
Live now worry later ...some people i knew my age and younger then me are dead and burried allready due cancer, etc...
If you want a GC now , get it asap

I'm picking mine up next week and agree with what you say it just spooked me when they now say 2030 as originally it was 2050 then 2040.

 

[Simon1]

No. No more than I expect the value of David Hockney's paintings to fall when he dies.


Seriously, if you've already ordered your van and are committed to the purchase, or like most of us on the forum already own one, the future value (and we're really talking a lot of years downstream) of the asset is immaterial, it's a sunk cost. Don't spend time worrying about it, get out (Pfizer permitting) and enjoy your van.

[EDIT] When I said Pfizer-permitting, I was talking about... not about their little blue lozenges... oh god.

LOL, You're exactly right! I'm going to get my van, dose myself up on 'Pfizers' and have a jolly good time!

 

[Velma's Dad]

I would think it should be clear by now that you can take Boris out of the newspaper business but you can't take the headline grabber out of Boris. He has repeatedly demonstrated that what he says is going to happen and what subsequently happens are almost entirely unrelated. The idea that this government, and maybe any UK government, can install the necessary infrastructure to enable all new car buyers from 2030 onwards to buy an electric car and be certain of being able to readily access public charging points, is laughable. So I think you'll get at least 15 and probably 20 years out of your diesel powered camper.

Unless you want this thread relegated to the Three Cocks section, I'd stay off the politics.

But if you can give any technical/practical reason why the widespread rollout of EV across the UK in the next ten years isn't feasible, let us have it. (But I keep in mind that most of the "it'll never happen" objections to technology shifts tend to get quietly forgotten when they actually do happen - the switch to renewables in UK energy generation is a case in point.)

 

[pjduffill]

I thought it was new cars post 2030, not the running in to the ground of old stock. Might make the value of a second hand fossil fule carriage premium?

 

[NickB]

I thought it was new cars post 2030, not the running in to the ground of old stock. Might make the value of a second hand fossil fule carriage premium?

That was my thought. Regardless, a lot can happen in 10 years.

 

[Simon1]

It is a concern to me, but cannot do anything about it. We have 12 month old Cali Ocean 2k only and are thinking about trading in for a bigger van 6m. With this announcement at lunch time I am not sure what to do now

I'm still going ahead with my purchase as I think its to far away to be heavily affected and to long to wait for the new technology(for campervans anyway). What will probably happen is they will end up delaying the ban due to lack of infrastructure. I suppose the idea of the unrealistic deadline is to get people a bit more focused which i think it will.

 

[Borris]

2030 is ten years away. By then they may have changed their minds.......again. Who knows, by then someone may have worked out that EVs aren't the magic bullet afterall. We may even have an EV scrappage scheme by 2030!

Seriously, there's no point in worrying as the rules and the thinking behind the rules will probably have changed by then. Just drive it, enjoy it and don't worry.

 

[Velma's Dad]

I thought it was new cars post 2030, not the running in to the ground of old stock. Might make the value of a second hand fossil fule carriage premium?

Yes there will surely be a lot of ICE 'legacy' vehicles still on the roads until maybe 2040 and even after that as a niche. The gradual closure of roadside fuel stations as demand drops will probably act on that, although at the same time the market will respond to supply the smaller numbers of ICE users (less convenient locations, eg farms operating as filling stations as a side-hustle?).

There is a lot of chatter about this on the classic car forums at the moment. Even more recent ICE sports cars are being touted as long-term desirable for people who drive an EV during the week but want more visceral, fuel burning, pleasures at the weekend. We shall see.

 

[Simon1]

2030 is ten years away. By then they may have changed their minds.......again. Who knows, by then someone may have worked out that EVs aren't the magic bullet afterall. We may even have an EV scrappage scheme by 2030!

Seriously, there's no point in worrying as the rules and the thinking behind the rules will probably have changed by then. Just drive it, enjoy it and don't worry.

I think they should reassure people thinking of getting campers and motorhomes now as they haven't got the choice of going electric where a lot of car drivers have. It's just putting unnecessary anxiety on some.

 

[The Merle]

Anyone concerned about this new law banning new petrol/diesel vehicles from 2030 that is likely to come in, affecting the medium to long term value of their vans? Will the price of diesel rocket or will the trade in secondhand vehicles keep prices and demand buoyant until they’ve served their full life span. Not that there is any choice now unlike with with cars, but it’s just something that has been in my mind since ordering.

They only said cars, so if it was all new vehicles that would cover everything for campers to lorry’s. But they only mention cars. It wouldn’t stop me changing.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Not worried

 

[Simon1]

Yes there will surely be a lot of ICE 'legacy' vehicles still on the roads until maybe 2040 and even after that as a niche. The gradual closure of roadside fuel stations as demand drops will probably act on that, although at the same time the market will respond to supply the smaller numbers of ICE users (less convenient locations, eg farms operating as filling stations as a side-hustle?).

There is a lot of chatter about this on the classic car forums at the moment. Even more recent ICE sports cars are being touted as long-term desirable for people who drive an EV during the week but want more visceral, fuel burning, pleasures at the weekend. We shall see.

I think the roadside filling stations will just change into charging stops with larger cafe areas for people waiting for their cars to charge and spend money to stave off their boredom. But whether lithium wins out in the end is not certain as it has its limitations, it could be that hydrogen becomes more effective especially with heavier motorhomes and trucks, and this may delay the diesel ban even further.

 

[WelshGas]

If you notice ALL the talk is about Banning Diesel and Petrol, as well as Hybrid CARS.

Absolutely no mention of Commercial Vehicles. Until there are significant advances in the technology I believe Diesel/Petrol and maybe Hybrid commercial vehicles will be around a lot longer.

 

[pjduffill]

To be fair, most cars are probably worth at best 20% of thier original cost after 10 years. I’d be happy having 10 years worth of cali and writting off the 20% residual if the law was you can no longer drive a diesel. But reality will be that you will possibly have another 3/5 years after to scrap or sell to the burgeoning market for home offices as it will turn in to a great looking home office, garden pod or shed! Winner winner chicken dinner!!

My 54k BMW is worth 22k after 30 months. It wont make a great home office, garden pod or shed!

drive on the sunny side of the street!

 

[Simon1]

To be fair, most cars are probably worth at best 20% of thier original cost after 10 years. I’d be happy having 10 years worth of cali and writting off the 20% residual if the law was you can no longer drive a diesel. But reality will be that you will possibly have another 3/5 years after to scrap or sell to the burgeoning market for home offices as it will turn in to a great looking home office or shed! Winner winner chicken dinner!!

drive on the sunny side of the streer!

Or a luxury chicken coup, winner winner........

 

[Slowdriver]

Not me at all, it was always coming and since the U.K. are heading up G7 next year it’s a nice sound bite. A target had to be set, whether it achieved is another matter, saying the U.K. or the Gov can’t do it is immaterial, can vehicle manufacturers do it and do the general public want it.

Well that the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders say that the demand is there, but the infrastructure is not. In the absence of the infrastructure potential purchasers are always going to be frustrated. Currently electric cars are below 7% of new car purchases. Hybrids are 25%. Given that electric cars are generally cheaper to run and faster and more reliable than petrol/diesel powered alternatives I think the problem is all about infrastructure. Purchase price is clearly a barrier but the cheapest electric cars available in China (the biggest market) start at £4k and run up to £52k. I would expect those cheaper cars to eventually be made available here, unless Boris bans them for political reasons.

 

[pjduffill]

I wish i would have kept my Yamaha RD400 two stroke, it would now be worth around 10 times what i paid for it in 1977

it would not meet any of the new emmission laws.

 

[kp64zl]

not worried

 

[Simon1]

I wish i would have kept my Yamaha RD400 two stroke, it would now be worth around 10 times what i paid for it in 1977

it would not meet any of the new emmission laws.

Yeah, I think about my Clio Williams and shed a little tear! It probably went to some cruel yob who mistreated it before putting it down. Would've been worth a fortune now.