Diesel ban 2030

[clarinetbcn]

I don't think Volvo needed any government regulation to
abide by when they started fitting seat belts.

No, the regulations came in when their effectiveness to save lives was proved, but the rest of the manufacturers refused to follow suit. Then, once they were required by law, people refused to use them, so we got another regulation, which was actually promoted by the insurance companies who wanted to save their bottom line by reducing personal injury payouts.

I don't know if there are any flat earth proponents out there who are still arguing against the use of seat belts. In this case regulation was necessary and beneficial, but the result was that because of a lack of initiative by manufactures in a case that was indisputable, regulation became the principal mover of design change.

 

[Aidy P]

Ford can only get a maximum of 217 miles out of its new e tranny. Probably empty and driven by Frankie Dettori.

Meanwhile in the real world...

My fully loaded Ocean with four us and dog plus gear... hmm what range?

If you want a camper buy one and live the dream.

New Ford E-Transit electric van prices announced | Auto Express

Ford's new E-Transit electric pane van range starts from £42,695, has a range of up to 196 miles

www.autoexpress.co.uk

 

[Lambeth Cali]

I’m 150 metres inside the London ULEZ border. Come next October I’ll have to spend £12.50 every time I drive the van. Our California is for hols and day trips. I don’t care that our 2 weeks in France/Spain will cost £25 more. Day trips we might go in the car instead.
I think or rather hope I’ll still be driving our 2008 Cali in 2040 when I’m 69. I doubt they will ban diesel campers.

 

[Eber123]

Good morning,

For me it is a slight concern. Last week I read an articel in a German newspaper that in a few years the EU will adjust the polution emmisions of petrol and diesel cars so much that it is practical a ban on such cars!

That will have an impact on the diesel and petrol cars on the road at that time. But if that comes true, the impact will start a few years before.

Will vehicle tax for diesel and petrol cars go up? Will the cost for diesel and petrol be still affordable? How will it affect potential buyers of new cars and most important will there be a market for used diesel and petrol cars?

At the moment I don't believe that electric cars will be the solution to replace diesel or petrol cars in bigger numbers. Will it be in 10 years? I don't know.

We live in a world that changes almost on a daily baises. And we will see more changes. I don't believe that indivitual travel, at least for pleasure, will be possible in the future. Not in the way we enjoyed and experienced the last 70 years.
Changes will be at home as well. Heating and power in our houses will change. Products we buy will change.
Don't get me wrong, I believe a lot has to change, but change in its nature can be scary even if it is well controlled. Where the money will come from to move the "old" equipment (name it cars, heating, electric appliance ...) I don't know. It will be one of the biggest challanges in the future.

I am old enough that I don't believe I won't see the change, but I hope at least I will see the start of the transition. Yes, of course I will ask myself how will all this impacting me, my family, friends and neighbors.

But in the meantim I will enjoy my camper as much as I can and enjoy traveling in a wonderful European Union (no, I don't refer to Brexit, I Do include UK in this), in freedom and peace.

Long and happy California,
Eberhard

 

[Velma's Dad]

Good morning,

For me it is a slight concern. Last week I read an articel in a German newspaper that in a few years the EU will adjust the polution emmisions of petrol and diesel cars so much that it is practical a ban on such cars!

I can't say what will happen within the EU but in UK I would expect it to be politically very difficult to raise the tax rates on either ICE cars (as VED) or on petrol/diesel fuel (as fuel duties) beyond a certain level. I say that because I assume that the people with 'legacy' ICE cars are more likely to be the poorer segment of the population, who will be unable to afford to upgrade to EVs. A large segment of the population can never afford to buy new vehicles and will be forced to drive the older petrol/diesel models. But they do have the vote.

Also, obviously, diesel will have to be supplied at realistic prices for quite a long time for commercial vehicles. (Even though I did see an interesting article from Germany about a proposal to 'electrify' the autobahns using similar catenary/pantograph systems that are used on railways, for use by hybrid heavy trucks.)

I do expect the economics of ownership to tilt towards EVs - that will be what the government will want, to meet emissions commitments - but personally I don't think we'll see punitive tax rates applied to diesel/petrol. I may be wrong.

 

[Eber123]

Good morning,

I see changes already. Cost of diesel went up to meet the emmissions agreement with the EU. That alone will increase cost for transport and therefore cost of goods.

Germany won't allow oel heatings in the near future. What does that mean? If you live in an older house and you need to replace the burner - you can't. You have to get installed a complete new system which will be more expensive. Yes, the state will help with a grant, but that will cover only a small bit of the cost.

The goverments missed to lead the various countries into a more sustainable way of life in the last 70x years because it was just more convinient to let it run as it is. Now we have to catch up to create an enviornment that is more sustainable.

Indivitual travel is a challange. People have to move. But how? What would be the most envoirnmental friendly way? Public transport will play a huge part, but there is a long way to go here to. I still believe that public transport has a negative stigma. It is time consuming, inconvinient and in some places and some time downright dangerous.
Germany has an arrangment (if I may say so) that there are smaller villages in the country side. Here it might be possible to arrange some sort of public transport. But Ireland allowed to have houses all over the place in the country side. People were able to enjoy their litte house with nice gardens in the country side, but to build public transport here is a logistical night mare.

Well, all this sounds very pesimistic but thats not the way I mean it. I just wanted to say that I am concerned about the challanges and changes that we all will face in the future. But the future is not on the far horizon - no, it is at the gate. I believe the next generation has a lot of things to do and will enjoy a different way of live compare to ours, but never the less still enjoy it.

Happy California,
Eberhard

 

[Bellcrew]

I can't say what will happen within the EU but in UK I would expect it to be politically very difficult to raise the tax rates on either ICE cars (as VED) or on petrol/diesel fuel (as fuel duties) beyond a certain level. I say that because I assume that the people with 'legacy' ICE cars are more likely to be the poorer segment of the population, who will be unable to afford to upgrade to EVs. A large segment of the population can never afford to buy new vehicles and will be forced to drive the older petrol/diesel models. But they do have the vote.

Also, obviously, diesel will have to be supplied at realistic prices for quite a long time for commercial vehicles. (Even though I did see an interesting article from Germany about a proposal to 'electrify' the autobahns using similar catenary/pantograph systems that are used on railways, for use by hybrid heavy trucks.)

I do expect the economics of ownership to tilt towards EVs - that will be what the government will want, to meet emissions commitments - but personally I don't think we'll see punitive tax rates applied to diesel/petrol. I may be wrong.

Presumably using lignite to power said lorries, soooo green.

 

[Mickyb123]

Think the wording is interesting and should be taken in context.
it’s not a ban of diesel and petrol cars by2030 it’s the banning of new sales! So from 2030 the aim is all new car sales will be electric, so there will still be a lot of petrol diesel cars still on the road

 

[Simon1]

Think the wording is interesting and should be taken in context.
it’s not a ban of diesel and petrol cars by2030 it’s the banning of new sales! So from 2030 the aim is all new car sales will be electric, so there will still be a lot of petrol diesel cars still on the road

It’s more what it doesn’t say like the possibility of many more cities and places in the Uk and EU creating congestion zones, VED price increases, diesel price raises and tolls all well before 2030. These are the unknowns that will make people jittery when investing a huge amount of money. As soon as the price of an ev car becomes on par with an ice car the transition will be rapid, but this probably won’t be the case for vans, campers or trucks so the government should reassure this sector that it will not be treated in the same way and have longer to adjust until the technology catches up at a parable cost.

 

[flying banana]

heres just a couple of issues to sort in 9 years then:-
terraced housing or any housing with street parking, (said before where are all the charging cables going to go )
people in flats, as above. (not middle class london flats with underground garages either mr amarillo).
lithium mining poisoning ground water, child labour in africa,
battery lifespan / disposing (plus huge cost of replacing battery packs, we all know what a mobile is like after a couple of years, the lithium battery is shite. i wouldn't like a 7 grand bill every 5 or 6 years on a car.
replacing all heavy machinery, earth movers, jcb's,combine harvesters,tractors,cranes,generators,submarines and shipping with what ? lorries buses and trains.( they are still building diesel trains now because it's too expensive to electrify the network).
range
campsite charging upgrades
demand on the grid mostly still powered by coal and gas around the world (80 countries powered by coal, up from 66 apparently according to google,a whopping 40 %)
just 9 years to sort it,they'd best crack on haven't they?

 

[T6 CFO]

Here’s hoping my Cali lasts long enough to become obsolete


Mike

 

[GSX1300R]

Only months ago it was 2040 then weeks ago it was 2035 now it’s 2030..Next week 2025.. What’s going to power 20 million electric vehicles? You won’t need street lights any more the overhead cables will be glowing bright red all night..

 

[WelshGas]

Remember elected Governments and Politicians are elected by the People to carry out their wishes. As long as a government can carry the voters with them then fine. Once they go off message then the people will elect replacements who better represent their wishes.
Insisting on EV's that the lower middle classes and those below cannot afford or use as they wish or failing to provide a cost effective replacement then those politicians and Council Members will find their days numbered and will be replaced at the next elections.
It's not the Politicians and the Liberal Elite or the Upper Social Classes that will effect Climate Change it is the Electorate.
It's no good pointing at Norway or Iceland that have small populations and massive Hydrothermal or Hydroelectric power capability. What will Germany do, Italy, Spain, Russia, Romania, Egypt etc: etc:.

 

[Velma's Dad]

terraced housing or any housing with street parking, (said before where are all the charging cables going to go )
people in flats, as above. (not middle class london flats with underground garages either mr amarillo).

68% of UK dwellings have off-street parking (CLG figures), and that accounts for 85% of drivers (PWC estimate). There are some imperfect solutions for the other 15% such as lamp-post chargers, and other options for some like workplace charging, but the general shift to EV isn't going to wait for that.

A minority will continue with ICE cars for a long while (and will have to continue to suffer from the health effects of local air pollution - double whammy) but that won't stop the shift to EVs for the great majority of car ownership.

Don't know where that leaves Cali values, but I don't think I'd be putting my money into terraced buy-to-lets.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

heres just a couple of issues to sort in 9 years then:-
terraced housing or any housing with street parking, (said before where are all the charging cables going to go )
people in flats, as above. (not middle class london flats with underground garages either mr amarillo).
lithium mining poisoning ground water, child labour in africa,
battery lifespan / disposing (plus huge cost of replacing battery packs, we all know what a mobile is like after a couple of years, the lithium battery is shite. i wouldn't like a 7 grand bill every 5 or 6 years on a car.
replacing all heavy machinery, earth movers, jcb's,combine harvesters,tractors,cranes,generators,submarines and shipping with what ? lorries buses and trains.( they are still building diesel trains now because it's too expensive to electrify the network).
range
campsite charging upgrades
demand on the grid mostly still powered by coal and gas around the world (80 countries powered by coal, up from 66 apparently according to google,a whopping 40 %)
just 9 years to sort it,they'd best crack on haven't they?

and the melting Permafrost is releasing lots of carbon into the atmosphere. Can we stop that? We should try but I doubt it somehow!
We’re all doomed Captain Mainwaring.

 

[clarinetbcn]

Remember elected Governments and Politicians are elected by the People to carry out their wishes. As long as a government can carry the voters with them then fine. Once they go off message then the people will elect replacements who better represent their wishes.
Insisting on EV's that the lower middle classes and those below cannot afford or use as they wish or failing to provide a cost effective replacement then those politicians and Council Members will find their days numbered and will be replaced at the next elections.
It's not the Politicians and the Liberal Elite or the Upper Social Classes that will effect Climate Change it is the Electorate.
It's no good pointing at Norway or Iceland that have small populations and massive Hydrothermal or Hydroelectric power capability. What will Germany do, Italy, Spain, Russia, Romania, Egypt etc: etc:.

As of last year Spain's largest source of electricity is wind, and according to a recent poster here GB is nearly in the same situation. My own 19th century flat in Barcelona already produces all it's own electricity and enough excess to charge an EV, if only there were one on the market that suited my needs. Change may not come this year or next, but it is certainly coming. Total cost of solar installation which runs my home, 2700 euros. We formed a group of 100 homeowners, and bought material collectively for a discount of 30%. The city of Barcelona subsidized 60% of the total cost including installation. We have recently become the Norway of home solar production. This only happened when two years ago the electorate tossed out the national party that had banned home solar production while having party directors sitting on the boards of directors of Spain's two largest electric companies. Total cost of monthly electricity consumption for my flat, including heating and air conditioning from heat pumps, 0 euros, since during the day I produce somewhat more than I use at night and am compensated for the excess, although at a reduced rate. The electricity that I do use at night comes from a company which uses exclusively renewable resources. Total monthly electric bill including fixed connection cost and taxes, 18.45 euros.

 

[danvan]

I live in North London in a terraced house. We have public chargers on a number of streets (7kw), the Shell garage round the corner has two powerful chargers (40 kw), and several roads have chargers in the lamp posts (albeit I think they are only 2kw). There is excess charging capacity at the moment, the Shell garage chargers are fairly busy but there is generally space at the other public chargers (and apps tell you if they are in use). So I'd be happy buying an electric car. I don't think that infrastructure would be too difficult to scale up over the next 10 years. UPS already use electric delivery trucks around the city, VW have an electric transporter and Ford announced one today.
That said, I'm in no hurry to replace the diesel Cali and diesel family car we have. It's cheaper to pay the £13 ULEZ charge each time I use them than it is to buy a new car (whatever the fuel source).

 

[66tim99]

As of last year Spain's largest source of electricity is wind, and according to a recent poster here GB is nearly in the same situation. My own 19th century flat in Barcelona already produces all it's own electricity and enough excess to charge an EV, if only there were one on the market that suited my needs. Change may not come this year or next, but it is certainly coming. Total cost of solar installation which runs my home, 2700 euros. We formed a group of 100 homeowners, and bought material collectively for a discount of 30%. The city of Barcelona subsidized 60% of the total cost including installation. We have recently become the Norway of home solar production. This only happened when two years ago the electorate tossed out the national party that had banned home solar production while having party directors sitting on the boards of directors of Spain's two largest electric companies. Total cost of monthly electricity consumption for my flat, including heating and air conditioning from heat pumps, 0 euros, since during the day I produce somewhat more than I use at night and am compensated for the excess, although at a reduced rate. The electricity that I do use at night comes from a company which uses exclusively renewable resources. Total monthly electric bill including fixed connection cost and taxes, 18.45 euros.

A good news story. Well done!

 

[WelshGas]

So it seems not all Hybrid systems are on the naughty list.
I think a Hybrid Transporter could do very well, especially a Petrol version thus getting rid of some of the Particulate and NOX emissions hardware.

 

[The Pox]

Just because Boris says it does not mean it will happen. Remember some of his other ideas... A Brexit deal that is good for the UK. A bridge/ tunnel from Scotland to Ireland. A world beating track and trace system. It all BS.

 

[66tim99]

So it seems not all Hybrid systems are on the naughty list.
I think a Hybrid Transporter could do very well, especially a Petrol version thus getting rid of some of the Particulate and NOX emissions hardware.

Vans are though. Discussion above suggested just cars...
Also - I heard there is a c.200mile- range transporter coming next year - T7 electric Cali potential?

Boris Johnson’s green plan brings ban on petrol cars forward to 2030 and promises UK’s first hydrogen-powered town — The Independent

Environmentalists welcome ‘landmark’ move on polluting vehicles, but say more ambition needed

apple.news

 

[SarahW82]

Hi all. This is my first time posting but I have been following for a few months since placing an order for a new VW California, due in March 2021. In light of the plan to bring forward the ban on new diesel and petrol vehicles in 2030, do people think this is not a good idea now? We had our hearts set on our new van, and have started buying things to fill it, but we are now worried it will have poor resale value etc. On the other hand, is it's our van and we keep it for years without selling it, the ban should have little impact. We would really value your thoughts! Sarah

 

[Alan Andrews]

The ban is only for new vehicles sold after 2030.

Buy the dream of your life and get out and about to make great memories.

In my view 2030 is an aspiration. It will slip.

But will probably mean that the costs of running a petrol or diesel vehicle will increase.....after all, the government still needs the tax revenue to come in.

The road tax tends to stay at the rate of when the vehicle was first purchased, so buy now before the hikes!

 

[willwander]

There are a few threads on this subject.
Personally, I would enjoy it while you can...

Diesel ban 2030

Just because Boris says it does not mean it will happen. Remember some of his other ideas... A Brexit deal that is good for the UK. A bridge/ tunnel from Scotland to Ireland. A world beating track and trace system. It all BS. Nothing wrong with carrying out a feasibility study regarding a...

vwcaliforniaclub.com

 

[SarahW82]

Thanks both. I have just seen some of the other threads but only after posting mine, apologies! I will trawl through those but am inclined to agree with you both and grab the fun while we can