Wuhan and Coronavirus.

[MartG]

Thats how immunity works, you get sick your body develops anti-bodies? Safer with vaccinations.

Yes, but I thought you either have to catch it and survive or have a 'similar' safe immunisation, which I didn't think they have yet?

 

[MartG]

worst case Borris, you can quarantine in your Pub shed, lucky you!

How many will fit inside Borris?
I can bring some homebrew...

 

[Velma's Dad]

How many will fit inside Borris?

About eight pints.

 

[MartG]

Can we add option to the poll - forum members insist on entry to Borris' pub shed

We may be in far more peril in there, thinking about it...

 

[Moakesy]

Surely the reason for leaving the area is that you weren't infected yet (you hope) would be that by removing yourself from the area, you reduce the chance of becoming infected.

If you then find the area of safety had pulled up the drawbridge, closed the gates and said 'stay away'.....well, I imagine that wouldn't feel right. .

Also, assuming you were sitting inside the safe city walls, you'd feel very differently on letting outsiders in depending on if the person trying to get in was a stranger or your child.

I know that if my son was currently in Wuhan province, I'd be extremely worried and be crying out for as much help as possible. I'd fully accept that he'd need to be quarantined, but I'd want him out of there. As it is, he lives about 10 miles away in a ground floor flat, so I don't need to worry about that or indeed him falling down any stairs either!!

The point being of course that the way we feel about this is situational...for the majority of us, we and our families are currently safe. It is so easy to say 'lock them out, keep them away', but the reality is when this happens in our own back yard then we'd want the help and support of others.

Let people come back, but take the appropriate risk mitigation to prevent further spread.

 

[MattBW]

Yes, unless it mutates.

Its an RNA virus I believe which mutate quite regularly?

 

[Amarillo]

Other than location (a feeling of being home?), what would the benefit be to repatriation? Would there be better medical care?
Of course I'm assuming that all the people are infected, bringing the non-infected away from danger is understandable...

I think that there is also an element of controlling movement from Wuhan. The virus may continue spreading for months to come, and the longer it continues spreading the greater the risk of self evacuation. Wuhan is a sprawling city, and virtually impossible to secure. With a controlled evacuation at least the UK Government can manage the quarantine.

 

[ArunAlec]

If the UK citizens were allowed to return and go into quarantine in the UK. What's to stop them deciding they've had enough and leaving quarantine? Is there any law allowing them to be kept "locked up"?

 

[Amarillo]

If the UK citizens were allowed to return and go into quarantine in the UK. What's to stop them deciding they've had enough and leaving quarantine? Is there any law allowing them to be kept "locked up"?

The Secretary of State may not make regulations requiring that a person receive medical treatment, including vaccinations, as was the case under previous legislation. However, special requirements and restrictions may, if there is a serious and imminent threat to public health, require “medical examinations, removal to or detention in a hospital or other establishment, or isolation or quarantine.”

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I think that I am correct in stating that those being flown out of Wuhan have signed an agreement to quarantine.

 

[MartG]

First confirmed cases of 2 infected people in UK...

I wonder if they are ones just repatriated...

 

[Amarillo]

First confirmed cases of 2 infected people in UK...

I wonder if they are ones just repatriated...

Quite worrying if they are.

Two out of a hundred evacuees to Britain suggests a 2% infection rate among a typically more affluent section of the Wuhan population.

2% of a 10,000,000 city population is 200,000, and that is probably a lower bound given the more affluent status of ex-pats.

And that is just one city in one province, albeit a pretty big city.

I still think it is right to evacuate ex-pats. I hope they will also unambiguously extend that evacuation to the children and spouse of British nationals. The Chinese don’t permit dual nationality, and the children of British ex-pats in China typically hang onto their Chinese hukou for city healthcare and education rights.

 

[18hunts]

No, they are being treated in Newcastle I believe.

 

[WelshGas]

First confirmed cases of 2 infected people in UK...

I wonder if they are ones just repatriated...

No, they don't arrive until 13.30 hrs.

 

[larrylamb]

So, they are back in the uk and heading for 2 weeks quarantine, do the coach drivers not get any protection??

 

[WelshGas]

So, they are back in the uk and heading for 2 weeks quarantine, do the coach drivers not get any protection??View attachment 54800

Interesting. I would hope the drivers, as well as the coaches, would be put in quarantine as well, as they are not wearing protective garments or masks.

 

[Rich20]

Interesting. I would hope the drivers, as well as the coaches, would be put in quarantine as well, as they are not wearing protective garments or masks.

It is very strange that the drivers are not protected when there is a health official on board each bus wearing full protective clothing according to the news this evening.

 

[larrylamb]

another pic from the daily fail, laughable if it wasn't so serious.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Given that more than 40% of the 7,700 confirmed cases in China are outside Wuhan/Hubei province (WHO sitrep, 30 Jan), and that flights from China to UK and elsewhere continue (notwithstanding BA's operating suspension) I'd have to guess that the highest risk of transmission into the UK is general travellers from the SE Asia region, not the people currently being quarantined.

That said, the epi-curve (below, WHO 30 Jan) of cases outside China is now declining, implying the disease is being contained effectively within China for the time being, although let's not speak too soon.

 

[sbmcd]

626,00 people died worldwide from the common flu in 2019, let's keep this is perspective.

 

[GrannyJen]

Edit:

I should learn to read

 

[WelshGas]

It was not common flu. It was a mutation of bird flu transferred from avian sources to human and with no previous history, therefore no human immune system prepared for it.

It also caused deep pulmonary infection. I am Not MD so learned souls such as @WelshGas will put me right but one of the more curious aspects of it was how it tended to affect the more fit and youthful, thought to be caused by fit, young lungs breathing deeper and pulling the infected fluids deeper into the lungs.

At present it is a wholly unique strain of virus for which no historical treatment data or readily available vaccine exists so you are quite right, let's keep this in perspective. A pandemic could be catastrophic as this virus mutates through it's human pool with no tested treatment available.

From The Centre of Disease Control CDC,

Even still, high early-season vaccination rates and a relatively effective annual vaccine appeared to help suppress illnesses. In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.

 

[GrannyJen]

From The Centre of Disease Control CDC,

Even still, high early-season vaccination rates and a relatively effective annual vaccine appeared to help suppress illnesses. In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.

Good grief!

I am only so pleased that as an Historian all I have to worry about is when and why people died, not worry about keeping them alive

 

[WelshGas]

Good grief!

I am only so pleased that as PhD Historian all I have to worry about is when and why people died, not worry about keeping them alive

And don’t forget that was with a widely publicised Vaccination Programme in the developed world.

 

[Velma's Dad]

I think there's some cross purposes in the above posts between the 1919 and 2019 seasons...

Although actually I gather that generally it's very hard to gather stats on flu deaths, because they're rarely recorded as such, as most of the deaths are old people with co-morbidities (the 1919 pandemic was unusual in carrying off younger people, I think).

But any epidemiologist will tell you that modes and rates of disease transmission vary greatly with each new outbreak, a small difference in transmission rates can lead to hugely different incidence patterns, and they never know what they're dealing with until the thing is well and truly up and running. So we shouldn't be complacent.

[EDIT] The 1918-20 'Spanish flu' outbreak killed between 50 and 100 million people, 3 to 5 percent of the world population.

 

[WelshGas]

So the 1919 pandemic was against a backdrop of vaccination?

Doesthat not prompt an even deeper "oh sing" moment?

2018-2019 Influenza Season.

The Spanish Flu Pandemic was much, much worse. As above by @Velma's Dad