Wuhan and Coronavirus.

[Amarillo]

So just how does this named virus differ from other new flu viruses that come along each year? symptoms are a cough which can lead to a more serious lung issues, generally in older more vulnerable population. new flu viruses tend to remain anonymous and don't get all this attention, are lumped together and we are told, thousands die in this country each year. so far I have seen not anything in all the coverage which explains why this virus is so special and different. what have I missed?

The death rate from seasonal flu in the US is in the range 0.05% to 0.1%.

The death rate from COVID-19 appears to be in the range 1.5% to 5%, so between 15 and 100 times more fatal.

The rate of spreading the virus (R0) is also significant. It appears that COVID-19 has an R0 of 2.2, meaning each affected person on average transmits the virus to 2.2 other people. Seasonal flu has an R0 peaking at 1.3. Any R0 above 1 means the outbreak gets worse, any R0 below 1 means the virus will die out - hence the whole city lockdowns and travel restrictions to reduce the R0 to below 1.

Most strains of seasonal flu have a vaccine, and this is given to people most at risk of spreading the virus to vulnerable people, such as healthcare workers, and also to vulnerable people themselves, such as children and the elderly. There is no vaccine for COVID-19.

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu.

www.livescience.com

 

[kave]

And, lets remember that a mild hit with this is two weeks in bed.
66-70% of the serious ill requires about 4 weeks in breathing machine.

 

[Cloud Dodger]

Based on where we are travelling, I bought some surgical masks back in early January when it started kicking off, the wife laughed at me back then.

On flights and in Singapore the masks are not only to help prevent breathing in any virus particles but also to stop us directly touching our mouths and noses if we did happen to get the virus on our hands. Hence why the authorities keep banging on about cleaning your hands regularly.

Eyes are more susceptible, if I happen to get the virus on the hands, then rub my eyes....

 

[kave]

I have a Sundström full face mask since I have been working with demolizing concrete at home.
I will bring it to Chamonix

 

[s2bear]

I have a Sundström full face mask since I have been working with demolizing concrete at home.
I will bring it to Chamonix

Can you wear sunglasses under that?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[kave]

I will put on solarfilm

 

[Hotel California]

I'm on it.....

 

[subthree]

View attachment 55766
I'm on it.....


View attachment 55767

Ooh, where did you get the Fever Tree glass?

 

[Hotel California]

@subthree , i got two of those for 0,30€ each , found in the 2nd hand store here in Belgium . I think they came free in a gift box with a few botlles at some point. Someone must not liked them ....now they live in our kitchen

 

[mbenne]

It looks very likely that we will all be affected sooner or later. At the rate it seems to be spreading development of a vaccine will come too late.
I could be wrong, but somehow I don’t think so.

So, my advice - Go.

I'm not sure what the solution should be regarding repatriation, we assume that the powers that be know best. But having recently been quarantined after returning from Singapore and Bali I'm not so sure. I was fine while away but developed a cough and cold with no other symptoms on reaching home. However, I needed to contact my GP about another matter and was referred to 111. They made an appointment for me to attend my local hospital for screening and was told to report to the 'Pod' and phone for assistance. I had to drive myself there and spent a good half hour looking for a parking space and walking quite a distance looking for the pod while asking for directions along the way!

When you hear the mention of a pod it conjours up visions of a sealed cubicle with a dedicated phone inside. What I actually found was a fenced off entrance with automatic doors on the outside leading into a locked corridor with masking tape around every door frame. The wall mounted phone was being used by a poor lady who had recently returned from Bangkok and was coughing and spluttering but hadn't taken advantage of using the masks that were provided. There was there no alco gel to clean the phone either so I had to use my mobile. It was 3 hours before I left, during which time I had come into close contact with two other referrals as well as two groups of outpatients that had wandered in by mistake. There were no toilet facilities and during my stay I had to make 2 visits to A&E to use their facilities! After taking my swabs I was told to self isolate at home, which I did and was told that my results would be available in 72 hours. I waited almost 6 days and had to phone my GP to chase the hospital as I couldn't get through and 111 had informed me that my test results had been lost. Fortunately they weren't - they had been contacting the pathology lab instead of the micro biology lab. My results were negative.

Don't get me wrong the hospital staff were doing their best and were clearly under pressure to implement procedures that were changing by the day. I'm now waiting to see what happens as we are due to travel to Tenerife next week, a short distance from the 'outbreak hotel'. Maybe I will be updating this post when we are due to return? I cant wait to use the campervan again - or maybe we will be forced to if there is a ban on travel.

 

[Amarillo]

A friend recently returned from S. Korea had a somewhat different experience after calling 111 with a dry cough.

A “Swab team” were outside within an hour. They changed into their Hazmat suits on his driveway while neighbours’ curtains twitched. They came into his home, swabbed the whole family, left after checking they had sufficient provisions for 48 hours, and he had the (negative) results within 36 hours.

Apparently it was that “swab team’s” first shout, and they were using it to practice, hence the impressive experience.

 

[gvick]

Off topic I know but- My wife works for NHS and there are models that predict this will be a bigger issue than first thought - On a scale greater than swine flu or SARS - .
This virus appears to affect healthy people as well as the very young and very old with a mortality x3 than normal flu (which is already one of the biggest causes of death annually).
This could be a little more serious than we are being led to believe.

 

[Amarillo]

Off topic I know but- My wife works for NHS and there are models that predict this will be a bigger issue than first thought - On a scale greater than swine flu or SARS - .
This virus appears to affect healthy people as well as the very young and very old with a mortality x3 than normal flu (which is already one of the biggest causes of death annually).
This could be a little more serious than we are being led to believe.

The Italian outbreak is particularly concerning. Out of 2,502 confirmed cases, 79 people have died, 229 patients are in a serious or critical condition and 160 people have recovered. That is looking pretty bleak.

On a brighter note, the Chinese outbreak appear to be well managed and now under some sort of control if the figures are reliable.

Perhaps if you have a ticket for the match at Twickenham on Saturday, now is the time to set it aside.

 

[WelshGas]

The Italian outbreak is particularly concerning. Out of 2,502 confirmed cases, 79 people have died, 229 patients are in a serious or critical condition and 160 people have recovered. That is looking pretty bleak.

On a brighter note, the Chinese outbreak appear to be well managed and now under some sort of control if the figures are reliable.

Perhaps if you have a ticket for the match at Twickenham on Saturday, now is the time to set it aside.

But remember, in many people the effects can be very mild, especially in children, and many of these will only be picked up if they have significant symptoms and are tested.
Based on information from PHE, 80% getting infected and 80% of those having mild to moderate symptoms not requiring any significant intervention then the Italian numbers COULD indicate that there are upto 12,000 or so cases in the population who are infected and carrying it but without any significant or treatment requiring symptoms who have not been tested.
Also, there is no information about the age mix in the quarantined Italian towns and villages. On past experience many small villages and small towns in Italy have a much older population as many of the young have moved to the cities and that can skew the figures significantly. As with many statistics context and information is so important.

 

[kave]

The Italian outbreak is particularly concerning. Out of 2,502 confirmed cases, 79 people have died, 229 patients are in a serious or critical condition and 160 people have recovered. That is looking pretty bleak.

On a brighter note, the Chinese outbreak appear to be well managed and now under some sort of control if the figures are reliable.

Perhaps if you have a ticket for the match at Twickenham on Saturday, now is the time to set it aside.

In Italy the worst and first spread was in a hospital, maybe that is why mortality is higher. They are likely missing a lot of non critical sick patients as well which makes death rate even higher.
The death % of normal flu is 0.1%, Covid19 is 2-4% which makes it up to 40x worse than normal flu.

 

[Calimili]

Many of the deceased were old people 70+, 80+ some of them with cancer in late stages and other serious diseases. Coronavirus gave them the last punch unfortunately. The question for me is, some of these 80+ in already terminal conditions, weren't surely travelling or meeting a lot of people, so how on earth did they contract the Coronavirus in the first place?
I think the Virus is already everywhere, it doesn't help that Italy has the largest Chinese community in Europe in Tuscany either.

 

[pjm-84]

Had flue back in 2009. Came on fast, lasted a little over a week and I felt........like I was dying. Wife told me to pull myself together. She then caught it and was worse than me. Self-isolate. I was unable to get out of bed.

We both had a flu type bug at the beginning of the year. Symptoms within a few hours of each other. Came on quick, same flu type symptoms (if you've had flu you don't forget) but with a dreadful headache. (I went to bed with a wet flannel over my head). We were in Ireland at the time at my cousin's wedding. Made the wedding, spent the rest of it in bed. I did have concerns about travelling back but the symptoms eased. Chesty cough came later.

 

[GrannyJen]

Up until now I have been rather sanguine about Covid 19. Whilst taking all possible hygiene precautions I've been adopting a "what will be will be" approach.

Now I am pissed off! All this panic buying

Ocado have run out of Garofolo organic wholemeal spaghetti!! My staple has disappeared from the shelves and they are the only supermarket I know that stocks Garofolo

 

[andyinluton]

I think it’s probably best to be an early adopter & get it now, grab a hospital bed whilst there are still some free.
Looking at the facilities available - only 15 beds across the whole country with the full life support facilities that the Chinese have been using to treat the bad cases & that bed required for two weeks + per patient.

When it is anticipated that 80% of the uk population are going to get it at some point our whole hospital set up looks inadequate.

My youngest caught swine flue aged 10 months. I spent a month in hospital with her in strict isolation for that & it’s not an experience I would want to repeat.

 

[pjm-84]

Crumbs that must have been dreadful.

 

[kave]

Let's hope there comes a vaccine that gives us narcolepsy

 

[ArunAlec]

Up until now I have been rather sanguine about Covid 19. Whilst taking all possible hygiene precautions I've been adopting a "what will be will be" approach.

Now I am pissed off! All this panic buying

Ocado have run out of Garofolo organic wholemeal spaghetti!! My staple has disappeared from the shelves and they are the only supermarket I know that stocks Garofolo

You'll just have to slum it and try Aldi!

 

[andyinluton]

Crumbs that must have been dreadful.

It was - it taught me a lot especially if you are not the one that’s actually ill.
1. Take food rations
2. Get unlimited data on your phone
3. The TV in children’s wards goes of at 7pm
4. 90% of the nurses needed showing how the monitors work properly - chances are when you get a flatline alarm it’s a sensor detached. After a couple of days with nothing else to do I was an expert on attaching sensors / resetting alarms & interpreting blood oxygen levels.
5. Doctors are not necessarily experts on what you’ve got, and don’t have the time to spend hours googling for latest information.

 

[GrannyJen]

I think it’s probably best to be an early adopter & get it now, grab a hospital bed whilst there are still some free.
Looking at the facilities available - only 15 beds across the whole country with the full life support facilities that the Chinese have been using to treat the bad cases & that bed required for two weeks + per patient.

When it is anticipated that 80% of the uk population are going to get it at some point our whole hospital set up looks inadequate.

My youngest caught swine flue aged 10 months. I spent a month in hospital with her in strict isolation for that & it’s not an experience I would want to repeat.

My heart goes out to you Andy for that experience. To see a little one so ill is the worst experience ever.

 

[GrannyJen]

So we are all being told to wash your hands.

As there are no hand sanitisers left on the shelves, unless you want to pay extortionate prices on a fleabay equivalent black market, people are resorting to making themselves.

Good old PHE counsels against it. Use only what "The professional drug and soap companies" sell or in any case soap and water is better. Incredible! If you can't buy it over the counter and you are not near a washbasin with plentiful soap and water then do nothing!

Well, good old PHE (Nanny public health England who I have had a run-in with in the past)......

Anything is better than nothing and as I can't find soap and water on the tube, the railway network or many public spaces I will make my own. I'm not a chemist but I can read simple instructions and I do know that the effective agent in hand sterilisers is alcohol and I do know what Isopropyl or ethanol is. I do know what Aloe vera is and I do know that if I mix in the ratio 2:1 I should get a concentration over the recommended 60% with enough gel consistency to be able to apply to the hands.

Oh, and by the way PHE, most hand sanitisers on the market are anti - bacterial, not anti viral, and the three different household name brands I have had in my house recently all have less than 60% alcohol concentration so I would prefer to ignore your advice to stick to over the counter products!