Are prices due to crash?

[HILL BILLYBOY]

Very interesting post - I am one of those buyers for a California Ocean. [Based north Scotland] Several for sale here on the club site - which appeared to be good prices [ I thought] then I checked dealers and some good deals offered indeed one dropped the price by £3K today on my enquiry. Must be the time of the year perhaps or are prices ready to tumble.

 

[calibeach76]

Same panic as there is every December.































































































































































































































































Unless you must sell before April, don't panic!































































































































Disagree. Market Theyis in terminal decline.































Same panic as there is every December.































Unless you must sell beforvee April, don't panic!















Hate to disagree but the leisure



I am right. Get out and speak with the trade and don't bury your head. Prices have been well know to be over inflated for a long time and the wider economic piece is now bringing reality to all asset classes but those that have been massively inflated like VW Calis will always have further to fall. I don't really care what anyone does with their money but I'm certainly glad I sold when I did and for more than I paid as prices have been on a downward trajectory ever since and still have a long way to go. Remember the asking price isn't the same as realised price











I think this December is worse than usual, giving the per



I think this December is worse than usual, giving the period we’re under. The Winter of discontent, war on the fringes of Europe and economic turmoil not seen in a generation…







iod we’re under. The Winter of discontent, war on the fringes of Europe and economic turmoil not seen in a generation…



I suppose if you say it every couple of months, at some point in time you will be right.

 

[dspuk]

I suppose if you say it every couple of months, at some point in time you will be right.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, about as many times a year this thread is.

 

[calibeach76]

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, about as many times a year this thread is.

Oh dear. Ostrich syndrome.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

Yep for 10% more than I bought it for in April this year having used it and enjoyed it for a season and put nearly 10k on it. I got out at the top!

I don’t agree with everything calibeach76 says, especially about buying gold, but did he call the top of the market ? Absolutely
Is it a seasonal thing and used prices will be back to “normal” in April ? Nah, these are not normal times.

 

[The Blue Merle]

Nearly £100k for a cali I definitely think things are going to head down. Crash is a very strong word but 10-20% is my guess

 

[dspuk]

Oh dear. Ostrich syndrome.

Yep, that and 27 years in the car industry

 

[soulstyledevon]

Nearly £100k for a cali I definitely think things are going to head down. Crash is a very strong word but 10-20% is my guess

Not just any Cali, the 150 bhp 2wd variant.
That’s right, it’s not even the 204 bi-turbo beast with 4motion
Absolute dreamer’s and people think the ID Buzz is overpriced…

 

[Defender90]

Not just any Cali, the 150 bhp 2wd variant.
That’s right, it’s not even the 204 bi-turbo beast with 4motion
Absolute dreamer’s and people think the ID Buzz is overpriced…

I think we all need to realise that everything we have purchased over the last few years will depreciate in some way houses, cars ,stocks & shares, but the biggest effect will be on items purchased on finance pcp the days of cheap money are over.10% apr for a camper van / car loan what a joke I would rather sleep in a tent.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Good time to buy used now…

 

[Borris]

I don’t agree with everything calibeach76 says, especially about buying gold, but did he call the top of the market ? Absolutely
Is it a seasonal thing and used prices will be back to “normal” in April ? Nah, these are not normal times.

Cali values may be currently falling for a number of reasons but no doubt the situation has also been exacerbated by some people having deliberately played the market. I don't envy them as it must be an unsettling life making money in this way. You could never be truly happy with your lot, constantly worrying if you should sell now or stick a little longer. When you've made your fortune and bought all your treasures, you'd always be worried they were about to lose value.

You can't take it with you when you pop your clogs. Even before that time comes the government and your nursing home will have done their level best to pick your pockets dry, leaving your relatives with only a few groats to share out. That after all, is their aim. So enjoy your Cali and ignore it's current value. That should only be important when you eventually need to sell.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

Cali values may be currently falling for a number of reasons but no doubt the situation has also been exacerbated by some people having deliberately played the market.…

I didn’t buy a California to speculate, I bought it because I wanted one. I am very happy with it, notwithstanding a bit of bother with the roof, and I’ll probably keep it a long time.
So, as you say, it’s current value doesn’t bother me one way or the other.
But the direction of the debate seemed to be will used prices keep falling, as they have been doing, or is it a seasonal blip and prices will be back up in April.
In a recession ?
With finance costs from VW dealers at 8.9% for a new Cali and 10.4% for a used one ?
Used prices will bottom out at some stage and rise again, but I’m sorry, it won’t be anytime soon.

 

[JimP1992]

Does everyone know that @calibeach76 sold his Cali in the absolute peak of the market and received more than what he initially paid for?

 

[andyinluton]

Does everyone know that @calibeach76 sold his Cali in the absolute peak of the market and received more than what he initially paid for?

Yes, and while we've all been out enjoying our vans, he's been stuck at home counting his money.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

If you sell something then you don’t own it anymore.
For those of us that love our vans, if we sold them we would then need to pay a small fortune to replace them.

 

[Mansfieldman750]

Does everyone know that @calibeach76 sold his Cali in the absolute peak of the market and received more than what he initially paid for?

I can’t quite match that but I got close. I bought a Skoda Octavia VRS ex-demo for £24000, ran it for 30 months and put 26,000 miles on it. Sold it for £21,500
Thought right, I’ve got the van, I’ll retire now and use the van as a day van.
It was working out fine, then the roof broke and I was stuck for 6 weeks without a car until my wife got back from work.
Ah well, you can’t win them all

 

[2into1]

I've been looking at bigger vans. Several retailers have told me they have a huge glut of new / newish vw t6.1 vans (not Cali's)..... Resulting from being unable to buy any new stock of bigger vans during lock down, and base vw's were still available. As a result, far too many got converted and haven't been cleared now demand has normalised.

 

[Cali Phillip]

Very interesting post - I am one of those buyers for a California Ocean. [Based north Scotland] Several for sale here on the club site - which appeared to be good prices [ I thought] then I checked dealers and some good deals offered indeed one dropped the price by £3K today on my enquiry. Must be the time of the year perhaps or are prices ready to tumble.

I got mine in January, prices was keen, this was Jan 2020, little did I know what was about to happen !

 

[reserves]

Despite it seems Cali’s not really selling (still loads listed here that have been listed over a month) asking prices remain firm.

I’d predicted the values would fall, but seemingly people would rather hold on than sell at a lower price.

A brand new 2023 Ocean can now be ordered for just over £65k, loads of pre registered cars at VW Showrooms with asking prices of £75k.

I’ve been looking out for an early 140bhp T5.1 Cali and haven’t seen *any* decent ones listed. Loads of 180bhp but not gong near those.

Interesting to see what happens. Unrelated but used EV prices have fallen through the floor, maybe due to expensive electric prices. However diesel isn’t exactly cheap at the moment either!

 

[Amarillo]

The time to really worry is when builders start buying 2nd hand conversions and reconverting them to builders’ vans.

 

[OGII]

Availability / prices are always "best" mid winter. Throw in inflation/ interest rate rises/ general uncertainty and things are bound to seem gloomy for sellers. As ever wait for Easter and the thread will be back to "nothing available, prices going up" etc.

 

[reserves]

Availability / prices are always "best" mid winter. Throw in inflation/ interest rate rises/ general uncertainty and things are bound to seem gloomy for sellers. As ever wait for Easter and the thread will be back to "nothing available, prices going up" etc.

That’s what’s even more surprising, darkest winter, cost of living crisis and asking prices still remaining firm.

Not complaining, great for all Cali owners, just surprised.

 

[Corradobrit]

Just like the housing market, owners/sellers of Cali's are savvy enough to know certain types of vehicle (camper vans, cabriolets, motorcycles etc) are not going to find many active buyers between Oct and Feb. The Spring will see a turnaround with the traditional swing to a sellers market, although the 10%+ over retail will soften given the supply.

 

[sidepod]

Fingers crossed for a big old crash. Get rid of all of those COVID Campers so we can get back to being spontaneous and book sites at short notice.

 

[OGII]

Fingers crossed for a big old crash. Get rid of all of those COVID Campers so we can get back to being spontaneous and book sites at short notice.

Great sentiment. Trouble is massive rises in holiday costs, scaremongering in media that if you haven't booked a holiday already you are too late and we are back to fully booked campsites again.