Are prices due to crash?

[yossarian]

Inflation is a strange beast. Hyperinflation is like living in parallel universe -- but that's another story.

In the short term rising rates will reduce money supply and consequently prices. In the long term if high inflation is persistent it becomes unviable to hold cash and there is a flight towards any type of tangible assets.

 

[BenPcaliman]

Wow prices still seem really high. Luckily I love my camper and have to intention of selling anytime soon

 

[The Tall Luthier]

Markets are multi factorial, very tricky to predict.
The California’s value has been very much boosted by the ’ conversion’ boom.
If a ‘copy’ costs £55K then the real thing will command a higher price, that’s the brand effect.
An indication that Californias might fall in value is more competitive pricing in the ‘conversion’ market.

Have we seen that yet?

 

[WelshGas]

Inflation is a strange beast. Hyperinflation is like living in parallel universe -- but that's another story.

In the short term rising rates will reduce money supply and consequently prices. In the long term if high inflation is persistent it becomes unviable to hold cash and there is a flight towards any type of tangible assets.

That would be true normally but we are see the cost of living rising exponentially. If you are a cash buyer I would agree. But nowadays the automotive industry is driven by the Lease/PCP market and those are highly dependent on disposable income and not cash savings.
How many new vehicle owners have the cash reserves to purchase outright when the Lease/PCP come to an end or job circumstances change?
I fear, over the next 18months, we will find out.

 

[insomnia]

Just checked the trader 78 calis . They must have sold 22

Yes there are 78 on the car site of Auto trader and another 30+ on the auto trader motorhome site , this time of year you are lucky to find half of that, I think there are 40+ on this site too.

I have been monitoring about 7 vans over the past few weeks and all are still for sale with some of them reducing a few thousand pound

 

[Vandergraff]

Definitely signs of things coming back down to earth from what I’ve seen

I’ve been saving & looking for a T5 beach for a while (watching the market for what is now years thanks to covid) and noticed over past few months that anything priced too high has sat around a long time, and ended up reduced a lot before finally selling. Or not selling. It wasn’t like that in ‘20/‘21… the gold rush years…

A crash ? Maybe not. The days of trying to sell your Cali for loads more than it was worth pre covid - and in some cases more than when it was new - coming to a close? I think so..

 

[The Blue Merle]

I don’t think you will see calis drop, apart from the few silly people chancing there luck.
Bought my first cali in 2013 and they’re been going up year on year.

More calis in the world these days so there will be more cali for sale. 100 isn’t many compared to other makes of vehicles, once you remove beach’s or oceans, auto/manual and 2WD/4WD there’s still very little choice and you will have to travel miles most probably.

 

[Kirk]

I don’t think you will see calis drop, apart from the few silly people chancing there luck.
Bought my first cali in 2013 and they’re been going up year on year.

More calis in the world these days so there will be more cali for sale. 100 isn’t many compared to other makes of vehicles, once you remove beach’s or oceans, auto/manual and 2WD/4WD there’s still very little choice and you will have to travel miles most probably.

You are right, 100 is not very much compared to other cars however as popular as campervans are , the California is still a very nice market

 

[Ch1pbutty]

That would be true normally but we are see the cost of living rising exponentially. If you are a cash buyer I would agree. But nowadays the automotive industry is driven by the Lease/PCP market and those are highly dependent on disposable income and not cash savings.
How many new vehicle owners have the cash reserves to purchase outright when the Lease/PCP come to an end or job circumstances change?
I fear, over the next 18months, we will find out.

We are fortunate enough to have a cash pot, but the trouble is that the majority of newer Beaches up for sale seem to be basic spec, so not that desirable. I'm sure that these are ex Lease / PCP vans where the focus was to keep monthly payments to a minimum, hence no extras. We thought about a newer version in order to get a DSG but would be spending say £15-20K to 'upgrade' to a lower spec van versus our current van....so not much point; Obviously Ocean's are well spec'd from the start, but does not meet our needs so would be a compromise.

Current van is paying for itself (on paper). Paid £27K 3 years ago, WBAC value currently £30K (peaked at £33K during Covid), and would get more for a private sale. So all running costs + upgrades apart from fuel have been covered by the increase in value....but obviously all relative as purchase price of a newer van would also rise/fall in line with the market.

I can't see demand falling as most UK campsites are fully booked even with increased pitch prices. We went to USA at Easter. Flight was 50% empty on the way out, 33% empty on way home during a usually busy period, and local prices for food+drink were higher than London, so demand for long haul holidays seems to have dropped..so guessing that many have chosen to holiday in UK / Continent instead this year.

 

[2haw]

The California’s value has been very much boosted by the ’ conversion’ boom.
If a ‘copy’ costs £55K then the real thing will command a higher price, that’s the brand effect.
An indication that Californias might fall in value is more competitive pricing in the ‘conversion’ market.

Have we seen that yet?

And I believe big discounts on Transporters are extremely hard to come by now so this should keep the cost of conversions higher

 

[WelshGas]

We are fortunate enough to have a cash pot, but the trouble is that the majority of newer Beaches up for sale seem to be basic spec, so not that desirable. I'm sure that these are ex Lease / PCP vans where the focus was to keep monthly payments to a minimum, hence no extras. We thought about a newer version in order to get a DSG but would be spending say £15-20K to 'upgrade' to a lower spec van versus our current van....so not much point; Obviously Ocean's are well spec'd from the start, but does not meet our needs so would be a compromise.

Current van is paying for itself (on paper). Paid £27K 3 years ago, WBAC value currently £30K (peaked at £33K during Covid), and would get more for a private sale. So all running costs + upgrades apart from fuel have been covered by the increase in value....but obviously all relative as purchase price of a newer van would also rise/fall in line with the market.

I can't see demand falling as most UK campsites are fully booked even with increased pitch prices. We went to USA at Easter. Flight was 50% empty on the way out, 33% empty on way home during a usually busy period, and local prices for food+drink were higher than London, so demand for long haul holidays seems to have dropped..so guessing that many have chosen to holiday in UK / Continent instead this year.

To some extent you are correct, but prior to Covid the Campervan/Motorhome/Caravan market was powered by those making a considered decision relating to the types of holidays/leisure activities they wished to pursue. Then Covid struck. No international travel, and hotel / accommodation etc at home was extremely limited hence the boom in leisure vehicles just to get away and for something different. But now the world has decided it has to live with Covid and travel is opening up, but along comes a Cost of living rise coupled with Putins war.
Many such vehicles bought in haste are being reappraisal. Do they want to camp or fly to the sun, can they afford balloon payments or a new, more expensive, PCP or pay the bills etc.
Only time will tell but the market must be approaching saturation for those wanting a leisure life change , not just a Covid stop gap. The fact that 2nd hand vehicle numbers are rising while new builds have a 12mth lead time should be food for thought.
I'm sure many such vehicles have been bought on a whim over the past 2 yrs and now that purchase is being examined in the light of present changes and those to come.

 

[Calimili]

Many that wouldn't usually camp for holidays, must now because they are out of pocket with a lot of money having bought their MH of sort. It will take them a couple of years to give up camping and accept, digest the wrong decision they made to buy a MH and then sell. The next two years will not be nice I think if you camp at sites, you'd have to book in advance and pay a lot more, removing the spontaneity and pay almost the same as in a hotel.
In two years, it will be a buyer market for 2-3 years old MHs, and camps not so full anymore

 

[Ozzy Pete]

Just looking on Ebay and a 10 year old California with 37500 miles on sale for more than when it was new. £43k... absolutely unbelievable. But it seems every single van for sale is up for a premium. Waiting for a cheap van to come up for sale is fruitless. Maybe one will come up for sale that needs work or is a bit dubious but on the whole the prices are all sky high.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Many that wouldn't usually camp for holidays, must now because they are out of pocket with a lot of money having bought their MH of sort. It will take them a couple of years to give up camping and accept, digest the wrong decision they made to buy a MH and then sell. The next two years will not be nice I think if you camp at sites, you'd have to book in advance and pay a lot more, removing the spontaneity and pay almost the same as in a hotel.
In two years, it will be a buyer market for 2-3 years old MHs, and camps not so full anymore

I just got back from 10 days in Portugal. Lovely Apartment/Hotel with all the usual Spa facilities. The apartment had 2 big bedrooms, lounge, dining room, modern kitchen, balcony and huge roof terrace. It worked out about £165 a night.
It makes me question how much camping I will do over the next 12months. When most campsites are full for the holiday season & over run with to many guests.
Doesn’t sound that appealing really…

I think this year, I will spent more time in hotels and less time on campsites with the odd roadside camps in between…

 

[The Blue Merle]

To some extent you are correct, but prior to Covid the Campervan/Motorhome/Caravan market was powered by those making a considered decision relating to the types of holidays/leisure activities they wished to pursue. Then Covid struck. No international travel, and hotel / accommodation etc at home was extremely limited hence the boom in leisure vehicles just to get away and for something different. But now the world has decided it has to live with Covid and travel is opening up, but along comes a Cost of living rise coupled with Putins war.
Many such vehicles bought in haste are being reappraisal. Do they want to camp or fly to the sun, can they afford balloon payments or a new, more expensive, PCP or pay the bills etc.
Only time will tell but the market must be approaching saturation for those wanting a leisure life change , not just a Covid stop gap. The fact that 2nd hand vehicle numbers are rising while new builds have a 12mth lead time should be food for thought.
I'm sure many such vehicles have been bought on a whim over the past 2 yrs and now that purchase is being examined in the light of present changes and those to come.

But a cali isn’t just for Xmas (camping), multi purpose.
So many people buy for there leisure actives probably more than the camping experience, plus it’s there only or main from of transport.

So whatever happens I think they will always be in demand.
The ones who impulse buy and only use for camping have always sold up pretty quick.

I think the have it now prices on new/nearly new will end up going but a cali will never be cheap.

 

[Sunshine&Snow]

Hard to say if there'll be a crash or not. I'm following the market closely here in Switzerland as I'm also looking to buy. What I've noticed is:

1. Used asking prices are still stratospheric. A 10yr old van with > 100k Km on the clock should be less than 50% of new. They are out of their minds
2. Pre-registered vans are available. Small discount over same spec from dealers, but immediately available (no long wait) if the spec is what you want. Yet they don't seem to be shifting (one seller has had the same 18 vans for sale for a month, none sold)
3. VW Dealer is keen to make a deal, getting in touch with relative frequency. He is not offering a discount other than the initial 2% he offered in February
4. On top of this, with the war going on, and oil prices sky high, I suspect there's a lower appetite for high fuel consumption vehicles (lets face it, a 3 ton loaded van is going to be a heavy drinker)

Instinctively I would expect demand to falter post Covid. VW likely expected as much, which is why they didn't invest in increasing supply (or chip shortage didn't make it possible, probably both). But I'd expect the used market to become more fluid. This whole Covid mess started in early 2020, so perhaps from early 2023 we will see 3yr vans coming to the end of their financing deals going on the market.

Time will tell if/when this is reflected in prices. I've decided to wait until the Autumn to go back in the market, and will watch from the sidelines. As I intend to use the van year round, I have zero problems with buying one in December, as long as the heater is working

March is bonus month in Switzerland, we've had dealers (not vw) in the past specifically mention our (preallocated) March bonuses when trying to bully us into a cash deposit, rather than a never-never approach. Cheeky f*cker.
Maybe better discounts will come when they get past that assumption?

 

[Anthony1]

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I like the yellow exterior but not the interior.

 

[The Saint Essex]

Do I care what happens to the price of my Cali? Not really.

I bought it for camping and my cycling adventures and I’m absolutely loving it.

Was it over priced when I bought it (November), yes but my son isn’t getting younger and rather than wait 12 months for a new one, I’d rather make 12 months of memories.

If prices allow me to change it in a couple of years great, if not it will last me a many good years in which I’ll use it to the maximum and enjoy every minute.

This wasn’t a whim purchase, we have camped for years, it was a significant planned upgrade for us. We could afford it so why not (no balloon payment or refinancing, I’m risk adverse and like to know what it will cost to owner)

A Cali is for enjoying, not worrying about what may happen in the future, as recent history tells us we never know what is around corner!

(I’m writing this in the sun on my Cali deckchair watching my son play rugby after already having been too a cycle race meet, his is the Cali life!

 

[HowieDog]

But a cali isn’t just for Xmas (camping), multi purpose.
So many people buy for there leisure actives probably more than the camping experience, plus it’s there only or main from of transport.

So whatever happens I think they will always be in demand.
The ones who impulse buy and only use for camping have always sold up pretty quick.

I think the have it now prices on new/nearly new will end up going but a cali will never be cheap.

I think the spread of hybrid working has enabled a lot more people to head off for a long weekend when in the past they would be heading home on a train on a Thursday/Friday night.
Also the ability to work from a camper allows extended long weekends too.
Cali sized vans being a daily or second car are likely to be more resilient than big whites or a 7m PVC where it’s more about solely being used for trips without the offset of it being a second car.

 

[Elmo3]

Just looking on Ebay and a 10 year old California with 37500 miles on sale for more than when it was new. £43k... absolutely unbelievable. But it seems every single van for sale is up for a premium. Waiting for a cheap van to come up for sale is fruitless. Maybe one will come up for sale that needs work or is a bit dubious but on the whole the prices are all sky high.

It’s going to come down to who blinks first. It feels like there are dozens of vans sat there at silly money with many not selling. Once there are a few forced sellers, the tide will turn and quickly. Same with houses.

 

[WelshGas]

Do I care what happens to the price of my Cali? Not really.

I bought it for camping and my cycling adventures and I’m absolutely loving it.

Was it over priced when I bought it (November), yes but my son isn’t getting younger and rather than wait 12 months for a new one, I’d rather make 12 months of memories.

If prices allow me to change it in a couple of years great, if not it will last me a many good years in which I’ll use it to the maximum and enjoy every minute.

This wasn’t a whim purchase, we have camped for years, it was a significant planned upgrade for us. We could afford it so why not (no balloon payment or refinancing, I’m risk adverse and like to know what it will cost to owner)

A Cali is for enjoying, not worrying about what may happen in the future, as recent history tells us we never know what is around corner!

(I’m writing this in the sun on my Cali deckchair watching my son play rugby after already having been too a cycle race meet, his is the Cali life!

So you made a considered decision to buy a California for the right reasons. The fact that you purchased in November after almost 2 years of travel restrictions/lockdowns etc ; just confirms that and that it wasn't on a lease or PCP.
But many leisure vehicles were purchased in 2020 as an alternative to foreign holidays and hotel stays as an option for a holiday that was possible and perceived as safer in the midst of the Pandemic. Many were bought on finance and those contracts are coming to the end just as foreign travel is taking off and inflation is rising due to the antics of the despot Putin etc.
Do these new owners pay the balance, start a new Finance Deal but wait 18 months or fly to Majorca for guaranteed sun.
Perusing the Fora it seems there are very few new orders are being made because the lead times are so long, yet the number of 2nd hand leisure vehicles for sale are increasing but at silly prices.
If they don't sell soon at the start of the holiday season then prices will fall as owners become desperate
The market will return to normal , its just a matter of time.

 

[The Tall Luthier]

So you made a considered decision to buy a California for the right reasons. The fact that you purchased in November after almost 2 years of travel restrictions/lockdowns etc ; just confirms that and that it wasn't on a lease or PCP.
But many leisure vehicles were purchased in 2020 as an alternative to foreign holidays and hotel stays as an option for a holiday that was possible and perceived as safer in the midst of the Pandemic. Many were bought on finance and those contracts are coming to the end just as foreign travel is taking off and inflation is rising due to the antics of the despot Putin etc.
Do these new owners pay the balance, start a new Finance Deal but wait 18 months or fly to Majorca for guaranteed sun.
Perusing the Fora it seems there are very few new orders are being made because the lead times are so long, yet the number of 2nd hand leisure vehicles for sale are increasing but at silly prices.
If they don't sell soon at the start of the holiday season then prices will fall as owners become desperate
The market will return to normal , its just a matter of time.

You've made some valid points that I agree with but you haven't necessarily referenced the target market for new Californias I don't think. What kind of person is spending £75K on a Cali instead of £55k on a conversion. What type of person is spending an extra £20K to get something just as good but with a VW badge?
I would argue that the answer is an older wealthy person, someone who is not necessarily affected by the cost of living crisis, Putin's awful, awful invasion or other global factors. As such their purchase is a lifestyle choice, not an economic one.
This generation who have the money to spend, are more likely to know what they want and buy it regardless, before their knees give way.
The prices may fall, but not necessarily for Calis alone. It will start at the bottom of the price bracket I think and work its way up!

 

[Niborn]

Inflation is a strange beast. Hyperinflation is like living in parallel universe -- but that's another story.

In the short term rising rates will reduce money supply and consequently prices. In the long term if high inflation is persistent it becomes unviable to hold cash and there is a flight towards any type of tangible assets.

Totally agree

 

[Niborn]

There may be a lot of Californias for sale , I’m selling mine soon so I’ve been watching , however there are very very few well 4 motions with all the important extras . I think on one or two. It’s not a UK thing either it’s exactly the same situation in France.
The higher spec‘d Calis are in very very short supply .
I’ve seen two 2017 vans a bit older than mine , with similar miles , but neither spec‘d as well but still 4 x4 in two VWdealers , at around £64,000 . They both sold in a few days . I had no idea when I bought mine in 2017 it would be worth anything like that, when I bought it though the same discussion was taking place.
In my opinion I think Calis are great and I love mine and I will be buying another, but LHD , as my Cali lives in France now. We recently bought a new electric car , the price of that was huge , in my mind it offers less value than a Cali.

 

[Niborn]

Inflation means rate hikes. Expect a correction on lots of stuff, already happening in stock market.
Recession in 12 months
That said a correction will only bring us back to where we were pre-covid.

I don’t think so. Its mostly not broke people buying Californias , in times of recession higher priced luxury items are often somewhat protected , thats why luxury brands do so well. Also in some ways a Cali is a cost saving item, the amount of meals we’ve eaten in ours and nights spent must add up to thousands and thousands of pounds saved , although we don’t do it for that we just like the flexibility the Cali offers. Sleep where you want and eat what you want , when you want . Drive where you want . The Cali offers freedom , I’m happy to pay for that .