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Are prices due to crash?

I was expecting a drop as we come towards the end of the school holidays and summer but Just checked the 3 Cali’s I’ve owned and they have all stayed stable. Not dropped at all from last month. Think things are still looking positive and will be for a while.

My Up! GTI is currently valued by WBAC at more than I paid for it, 29 months ago. The lack of new cars coming through continues to push 2nd cars up.
 
Just looking at the amount of used Cali's for sale at the moment , normally this time of year everything sells as soon as advertised yet im seeing the same ones for sale now for weeks on end , even Auto Trader has over 100 Cali's for sale
 
Interesting post, I bought a T6 converted Campervan before I ordered my California in 2020. At the time the Campervan market had gone into overdrive due to Covid , you had to be quick of the mark to get a chance to purchase one, now you have 250 or more vehicles for sale, not including Californias. I’m not sure if its down to lots more companies building Campervans to cash in on a big profit , or people have stopped rushing to buy a Camper-vans.
 
I have never seen so many Cali's for sale this time of year, prices are way too high , I think we could certainly see a crash over the coming months
 
This backdrop certainly won't help...


If I was in the market for one I certainly wouldn't buy one at the moment. No amount of man maths could justify some of those asking prices.

The cash would be better spent on flights and plush hotels.
 
Hard to say if there'll be a crash or not. I'm following the market closely here in Switzerland as I'm also looking to buy. What I've noticed is:
  1. Used asking prices are still stratospheric. A 10yr old van with > 100k Km on the clock should be less than 50% of new. They are out of their minds
  2. Pre-registered vans are available. Small discount over same spec from dealers, but immediately available (no long wait) if the spec is what you want. Yet they don't seem to be shifting (one seller has had the same 18 vans for sale for a month, none sold)
  3. VW Dealer is keen to make a deal, getting in touch with relative frequency. He is not offering a discount other than the initial 2% he offered in February
  4. On top of this, with the war going on, and oil prices sky high, I suspect there's a lower appetite for high fuel consumption vehicles (lets face it, a 3 ton loaded van is going to be a heavy drinker)
Instinctively I would expect demand to falter post Covid. VW likely expected as much, which is why they didn't invest in increasing supply (or chip shortage didn't make it possible, probably both). But I'd expect the used market to become more fluid. This whole Covid mess started in early 2020, so perhaps from early 2023 we will see 3yr vans coming to the end of their financing deals going on the market.

Time will tell if/when this is reflected in prices. I've decided to wait until the Autumn to go back in the market, and will watch from the sidelines. As I intend to use the van year round, I have zero problems with buying one in December, as long as the heater is working :)
 
My joker took 4 1/2 days to sell so nope.
Plus that 4motion for 85k has finally disappeared!!!
People just want the right cali these days and guess they are happy to wait for right 2nd hand or new one to turn up.
If it’s priced right then it will be gone in days.
I was drooling over a stunning yellow beach advertised on here and autotrader in Glasgow for around £53k that disappeared within a few days!
 
We are looking at changing but a lot of sellers are just dreaming at the prices they advertise then for and that’s confirmed by how long they sit around , everyone is tightening the purse strings so there is only one way prices are heading
 
I am not sure there will be a crash, but if there are more Californias on the market, then some kind of price correction would make sense. It’s pure supply and demand. However, I would expect used T6.1s to remain at a premium price given the current factory lead times. Just my thoughts…
 
Cost of diesel and return of cheap and unrestricted foreign travel has to impact prices. The prices I’ve seen are also ridiculous. In my opinion at least and that’s why I ordered new in August. There’s 2 year old coasts currently advertised with less spec and 25k+ miles advertised at £4K more than I’m paying for a new one. Yes, they’re available now etc but so are flights to the med for £40. It’ll cost me £60 in diesel to get my coast home when I pick it up next week

Funny thing is the cheapest way for me to pick up my coast was to fly from Edinburgh to Birmingham for only £4.99. The only catch was a 9 hour stopover in Dublin (Ryanair). I was well up for that but the wife wants to come too and her passport is out of date so we’re getting the train
 
I remember my first T4 self build conversion.
Van £5500
Build £2000

Prices are currently Bonkers…!!!
Lots of chancers at present, a bit of a mine field in all honesty with more “specialist van converters” appearing week by week.
Money better off on the Cali platform IMO.

However, things are gonna get real tough for lots of families up and down the country. Over priced Campervans will be the least of anyone concerns 7/8 months from now.
Brace yourself…
 
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£70,000, Crazy Money

To be fair, it has an onboard bathroom…
1C625B3D-3DD4-4086-B75B-3C1E8C29412D.png

I feel sorry for all those families who buy one of these things attracted by the low monthly repayments.
Perhaps I’m a little out of touch, but £500 a month to me, sounds a bit rich for a vehicle which isn’t a little bit exotic…
 
Just looking at the amount of used Cali's for sale at the moment , normally this time of year everything sells as soon as advertised yet im seeing the same ones for sale now for weeks on end , even Auto Trader has over 100 Cali's for sale
Just checked the trader 78 calis . They must have sold 22
 
To be fair, it has an onboard bathroom…
View attachment 92160

I feel sorry for all those families who buy one of these things attracted by the low monthly repayments.
Perhaps I’m a little out of touch, but £500 a month to me, sounds a bit rich for a vehicle which isn’t a little bit exotic…
110bhp 5speed gearbox, basic rubber floor in the cab. £69k!
 
This is a perennial.

Every year Cali prices are going to crash. Every year VW issue a price increase that is going to price them out of the market. Every year the latest rotting roof saga will mean every owner of a Cali will be left with a valueless asset.

Every year someone predicts doom and gloom for the California.

Every year people want a Cali. Every year the Cali proves itself as the most accomplished small camper on the planet. Every year it's appeal goes up. Every year its value goes up.

I've seen this for ten years now.
 
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Has anyone mentioned the ridiculous price of houses all over the country. A house is the most important purchase you will make in your life. House prices consistently rise. Despite the occasional bubble bursting but generally they rise. Depending where you live of coarse but generally the house you or your parents paid peanuts for in the 60s and 70s is now many many hundreds of thousands of pounds depending on desirability maybe over a million.
A camper van is a luxury and despite the cost of living crisis and millions struggling there are also millions that can afford paying the silly prices that they are fetching mainly because of the extremely long waiting times. It’s not just VW California’s and other campervans that are fetching premium prices, All vehicles only a few years ago you could walk into a dealers and immediately buy a new vehicle off the forecourt, that has completely changed and I don’t think you can buy any desirable vehicle immediately any longer. In the short term this won’t change.
Russia invading Ukraine has made things many times worse but judging by the amount of traffic on the roads this Easter the price of petrol and diesel hasn’t made much difference to drivers attitudes.
 
Has anyone mentioned the ridiculous price of houses all over the country. A house is the most important purchase you will make in your life. House prices consistently rise. Despite the occasional bubble bursting but generally they rise. Depending where you live of coarse but generally the house you or your parents paid peanuts for in the 60s and 70s is now many many hundreds of thousands of pounds depending on desirability maybe over a million.
A camper van is a luxury and despite the cost of living crisis and millions struggling there are also millions that can afford paying the silly prices that they are fetching mainly because of the extremely long waiting times. It’s not just VW California’s and other campervans that are fetching premium prices, All vehicles only a few years ago you could walk into a dealers and immediately buy a new vehicle off the forecourt, that has completely changed and I don’t think you can buy any desirable vehicle immediately any longer. In the short term this won’t change.
Russia invading Ukraine has made things many times worse but judging by the amount of traffic on the roads this Easter the price of petrol and diesel hasn’t made much difference to drivers attitudes.
I'm not sure the comparison is valid though. Houses are, generally, an appreciating asset as long as you keep up the maintenance. A VW California, while better in this metric than a regular car, is still going to depreciate in value over time (except in the 'short term' when evil viruses of unknown origin screw up supply).

As you rightly say, a camper van is a luxury item, and those are the first to suffer in times of economic stress. Which we are most certainly heading into butt first. I have no idea what the impact will be on prices, whether they'll go down or up because VW decided to increase the price (again).

What I do know is that I can postpone a luxury for half a year to gain more clarity on the situation. And I doubt I'm the only one choosing to do the same.

Of course, with energy costs in Germany likely going up, this may well mean that VW is forced to increase the price of their vehicles to cover their increased costs.
 
Yes, in real terms prices will fall soon, soon being the operative word. You don't need to subscribe to any particular political persuasion to observe that markets have always fluctuated over time; houses, classic cars, coffee, fine wine, gold, oil are all consumables which have been worth more or less at different times in a fluctuating market. Again, whatever your politics, a feature of capitalism has been its booms and crashes for more than two hundred years. Whether 'van prices will fall this year cannot be known, or the year after, but they will fall "soon". In comparison with continental Europe the supply of vehicles has always been low in the UK, the pandemic and Brexit have made staycationing more and more attractive, campervanning has been a bit of a "media darling", many people put a bit of money aside while working at home and not being able to socialise ..... the consequence has been a sellers' market and prices have rocketed. This will change "soon", but all is not lost. Vans have an average life span of thirty years from registration to scrapping, cars only thirteen, so are likely to be a better investment than any other vehicle. And anyway, I always remember this; Toad was obsessed by the delights of a horse pulled gypsy caravan early in "Wind in the Willows", (the childhood memory of the description of this helped direct me into 'vanning) until he was overtaken by a motor car, which instantly became his next fixation .......... which meant that presumably a low mileage, well cared for camper came on to the market pretty soon afterwards! Yes, the market will fall "soon", which means that "soon" there may be bargains to be had! Good luck with that everyone .......
 
A correction is likely due but all second hand values of all vehicles are continuing to rise due to the lack of new stock coming through and the stock issue doesn't look like improving anytime within the next 12 to 18 months. Lets say a correction happens because the market has topped out, if prices fall by 20% they will still be higher than pre pandemic. As an example there are two Cali Coasts for sale on this forum, both are 2 years old and both are up for £5000 to £6000 more than the original purchase price from new so even with a 20% decrease in value they would still offer an excellent residual to the original buyer. The Cali is still the smart place to put your money.
 
Inflation means rate hikes. Expect a correction on lots of stuff, already happening in stock market.
Recession in 12 months
That said a correction will only bring us back to where we were pre-covid.
 
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