Are prices due to crash?

[Niborn]

Plenty of alarm bells ringing with that ad...

Why is that, do you mean it’s low or high ?

 

[ardm17]

Why is that, do you mean it’s low or high ?

Well, wrong details, whatsapp me as uk phone off - probably me being over-cautious. Deleted my comment now anyway. Maybe should not have commented without viewing the ad proper.

 

[Niborn]

I think that black 4x4 is about correctly priced , although it’s got some nice visual extras as well as the bike rack it seems light on things that matter. At least they are not listed and they were extra in 2017.

differential lock ?
auto cruise control ?
led headlights?
Heated front windscreen?
Hill descent control ?
Bigger fuel tank ?
Reversing Camera
Insulated privacy glass
etc etc

plus , has it had the 3 oil changes? And also the timing belt / water pump and alternator belt done ?

i think it’s about 10% less than a dealer , makes it good value maybe ?

As I mentioned earlier there has been two 2017 4x4 in dealers sold in the last weeks at £64000

 

[vwsween]

Well if it has started I cannot see it. If I were to update my Beach to a 6.1 Camper, there is a choice of precisely one on Autotrader. The cost for this one year old van is 30% more than I paid for a 3 month old Beach a year and a half ago.. and it doesn’t have the extras that ours came with like the parking heater.
Are VW dealers adding fuel to the over-pricing fire?
View attachment 92307

Yes Dealers will always get what they can wont they. My thoughts earlier where about paid prices rather than asking prices and vans in the age range of 3 to 8 years. Nearly new will most likely continue to have prices distorted higher by the long time it takes to order a brand new one.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

My neighbour has put his house, almost identical to mine, on the market for over £100k more than what I paid for mine just six months ago !!! He’s had a lot of interest judging by the number of viewers. I will be amazed if he achieves the price but also not surprised as house prices and availability are crazy and unpredictable at the moment.

The trouble is that the house your neighbour is looking to move too, has probably gone up by same percentage.

 

[Kayleigh]

Yes Dealers will always get what they can wont they. My thoughts earlier where about paid prices rather than asking prices and vans in the age range of 3 to 8 years. Nearly new will most likely continue to have prices distorted higher by the long time it takes to order a brand new one.

Pretty much my comment in #8

Are prices due to crash?

I was expecting a drop as we come towards the end of the school holidays and summer but Just checked the 3 Cali’s I’ve owned and they have all stayed stable. Not dropped at all from last month. Think things are still looking positive and will be for a while. My Up! GTI is currently valued by...

vwcaliforniaclub.com

 

[Richi]

Well if it has started I cannot see it. If I were to update my Beach to a 6.1 Camper, there is a choice of precisely one on Autotrader. The cost for this one year old van is 30% more than I paid for a 3 month old Beach a year and a half ago.. and it doesn’t have the extras that ours came with like the parking heater.
Are VW dealers adding fuel to the over-pricing fire?
View attachment 92307

Hey. Looks like the Beach we ordered. Oh no. No parking heater, no panoramic view, no upgraded alloys, etc. For £65,995!? Ridiculous price. I’ll wait for ours.

 

[Wannabecamperman]

This is a perennial.

Every year Cali prices are going to crash. Every year VW issue a price increase that is going to price them out of the market. Every year the latest rotting roof saga will mean every owner of a Cali will be left with a valueless asset.

Every year someone predicts doom and gloom for the California.

Every year people want a Cali. Every year the Cali proves itself as the most accomplished small camper on the planet. Every year it's appeal goes up. Every year its value goes up.

I've seen this for ten years now.

But the return to something like normality regarding the availability of cheap foreign sunny holidays, coupled with the high diesel prices, can only serve to reduce the demand and therefore prices of camper vans generally. The Cali, whilst still the benchmark by which all others are judged, will not be exempt from this supply-and-demand fuelled price readjustment.

I for one, have decided to wait and see just how much the prices drop before I purchase, especially at the end of the British summer season... I'm quite sure, I'm not alone.

 

[GrannyJen]

But the return to something like normality regarding the availability of cheap foreign sunny holidays, coupled with the high diesel prices, can only serve to reduce the demand and therefore prices of camper vans generally. The Cali, whilst still the benchmark by which all others are judged, will not be exempt from this supply-and-demand fuelled price readjustment.

I for one, have decided to wait and see just how much the prices drop before I purchase, especially at the end of the British summer season... I'm quite sure, I'm not alone.

When I first bought a Cali it was the roof rot scandal. Sit back, light blue touch paper, watch the prices fall.

Then the Marco Polo was going to create great competition. VW will just have to reduce prices.No. They put them up and the MP was the damp squib of the decade.

. Going to be so difficult to tour the continent in a vehicle. Who wants a camper? just stay in a hotel. Camper prices bound to fall.

No diesel after 2030? Goodness, prices of diesel powered vehicles like California's are bound to tumble, except sales went up and delivery times lengthened.

Then no one saw Coronavirus coming and that word Staycation. Prices got to silly levels, so perhaps the question is when will prices correct down from silly levels rather than will there be a crash. The only crash I've ever seen with a Cali was when I hit a pile of rocks avoiding a sheep bent on self-destruction.

The only downside waiting for a correction is also having to wait for the next "never saw it coming" event which could have the opposite of the predicted event.

I'm probably in a different situation to you. When I bought my Cali I was aged 66 so time was running out for me and I had just spent 5 years staring down the grim reaper so I was waiting for no one.

My own views are prices will stabilise now travel opportunities are returning to whatever were post norms, the silly price rises we've seen over the last 18 months are over, quite a few people will be trading in their Cali having bought and decided "not for me", but a crash? No. It will be gently shaped curve rather than a steep sided one.

However don't bank on my crystal ball, I've never even won at bingo

 

[Vagophile]

However don't bank on my crystal ball, I've never even won at bingo

Maybe you would if you played?
@GrannyJen, how many times have you watched Life of Brian?

 

[GrannyJen]

Maybe you would if you played?
@GrannyJen, how many times have you watched Life of Brian?

Once.

Was never a monty python fan, but definitely a John Cleese fan. Fawlty towers sometimes reflects better on my bohemian and sometimes chaotic lifestyle.

I will also, With bag over my head, admit to playing bingo once or twice

 

[HowieDog]

But the return to something like normality regarding the availability of cheap foreign sunny holidays, coupled with the high diesel prices, can only serve to reduce the demand and therefore prices of camper vans generally. The Cali, whilst still the benchmark by which all others are judged, will not be exempt from this supply-and-demand fuelled price readjustment.

I for one, have decided to wait and see just how much the prices drop before I purchase, especially at the end of the British summer season... I'm quite sure, I'm not alone.

Some people won't be able to have their cheap foreign holidays unless they get their passports organised with up to a 10 week wait! Will catch out quite a few people I expect, as well as the 10 year time limit rather than the expiry date.

 

[The Tall Luthier]

Some people won't be able to have their cheap foreign holidays unless they get their passports organised with up to a 10 week wait! Will catch out quite a few people I expect, as well as the 10 year time limit rather than the expiry date.

A recent passport application fora family member went through in three weeks despite the ten week warning.

 

[HowieDog]

A recent passport application fora family member went through in three weeks despite the ten week warning.

Yes I do think 10 weeks is unlikely. We sent one in two weeks ago and it’s been printed. Just need TNT to deliver it now…

 

[Borris]

That’s crazy for a beach

Why do you say that?

Regardless of what it is that someone is selling, if the item is in short supply and demand exists, then by definition it's a sellers market.

Currently this site has 45 Calis for sale. Only ten of them are Beaches.
VW Commercial have 35 used Calis advertised. Only 10 of those are Beaches.
Autotrader currently have 75 Calis for sale of which Only 17 are Beaches.

So whilst all three of these main California used vehicle sources have a combined 155 vehicles for sale at present, Only 37 are Beaches. If you then remove those older examples with high mileage and the number is considerably less. Of those remaining, how many are still in warranty with anything more than a fairly basic spec? I would suggest very few indeed.

So even allowing for the higher than usual numbers of used Calis being offered for sale, dealers and private individuals can ask good money for low mileage Beaches with a good spec. They are in short supply as are new ones.

Based on these figures there are currently three other Cali variants for sale for every one Beach!

 

[reserves]

Why do you say that?

Regardless of what it is that someone is selling, if the item is in short supply and demand exists, then by definition it's a sellers market.

Currently this site has 45 Calis for sale. Only ten of them are Beaches.
VW Commercial have 35 used Calis advertised. Only 10 of those are Beaches.
Autotrader currently have 75 Calis for sale of which Only 17 are Beaches.

So whilst all three of these main California used vehicle sources have a combined 155 vehicles for sale at present, Only 37 are Beaches. If you then remove those older examples with high mileage and the number is considerably less. Of those remaining, how many are still in warranty with anything more than a fairly basic spec? I would suggest very few indeed.

So even allowing for the higher than usual numbers of used Calis being offered for sale, dealers and private individuals can ask good money for low mileage Beaches with a good spec. They are in short supply as are new ones.

Based on these figures there are currently three other Cali variants for sale for every one Beach!

Interesting, I haven't looked at pricing between Beach and Oceans, however in my case I could happily live with a Beach OR an Ocean.

If a Beach is £3-5k less than an Ocean, I'll take the Ocean every time, it's 100% going to have a parking heater and have a better spec even though I may prefer a Beach. Therefore the short supply of Beaches becomes less relevant.

If you 100% need a Beach and can't live with an Ocean then the short supply of Beaches matters more.

 

[vwsween]

Based on these figures there are currently three other Cali variants for sale for every one Beach!

I just looked up how many Californias were in the UK last year and the ratio is very close to what you had seen from counting adverts. For every Beach on the road there are 3 of the others.
There may be a few who think they would be content with either but I suspect that this only demonstrates that for every potential purchaser looking at a Beach there will be 3 others looking for a proper camper.

 

[Ch1pbutty]

If a Beach is £3-5k less than an Ocean, I'll take the Ocean every time, it's 100% going to have a parking heater and have a better spec even though I may prefer a Beach. Therefore the short supply of Beaches becomes less relevant.

True, but impossible to have 7 seats, flexible space or manual roof in an Ocean.

People have different needs, hence many will pay for premium for a good spec Beach.

 

[Borris]

I just looked up how many Californias were in the UK last year and the ratio is very close to what you had seen from counting adverts. For every Beach on the road there are 3 of the others.
There may be a few who think they would be content with either but I suspect that this only demonstrates that for every potential purchaser looking at a Beach there will be 3 others looking for a proper camper.

Perhaps you are right. However for the benefit of this thread, it also demonstrates that there is a much greater supply of "proper" campers on the used market at present. This in turn begs the question: With the principles of supply and demand in mind, will the prices of these other variants remain quite as firm?

It's also worth noting that despite all this there has never been a significant price difference between a well specced Beach and an Ocean.

 

[Bilko's 22 Ocean]

Just looking at the amount of used Cali's for sale at the moment , normally this time of year everything sells as soon as advertised yet im seeing the same ones for sale now for weeks on end , even Auto Trader has over 100 Cali's for sale

I just took delivery of a 22 Ocean. Cost me £58k new (ordered 31st March 2021). I have just been offered £80k for it. This is ridiculous. Not worth selling as I'd have to pay the same to get a new one.

 

[reserves]

I just took delivery of a 22 Ocean. Cost me £58k new (ordered 31st March 2021). I have just been offered £80k for it. This is ridiculous. Not worth selling as I'd have to pay the same to get a new one.

I collect our new one in 6 weeks, if anyone offered me anywhere even close to that I'd bite their hand off and just keep our current one

Fair play to you though, congrats and enjoy your new Cali

 

[Lambeth Cali]

My wife is always saying she’s surprised how much money people seem to have. Lots of expensive new cars on the roads.

I suspect those days are going to end soon with 3 years of economic pain. People who own Californias, seem fairly canny, probably own them outright and will keep hold of them. May not order a new one. Prices should stay stable.

People who have splashed out on a conversion may decide to sell up. I think their prices may fall. But some owners will just hold onto them.

 

[Wrongford]

A California is an investment - NOT a financial growth investment but a lifestyle and well being investment. If you are concerned about loss then think about the great times and adventures the Cali can provide - priceless. Life is too short!

A California is an expensive toy and prices will remain high until a financial crash causes owners to part with them.

 

[Digger]

A California is an expensive toy and prices will remain high until a financial crash causes owners to part with them.

Our other cars cost more than our California and cannot compete if you can only afford one vehicle. No other vehicle can serve as a daily driver and jack of almost all uses so yes it is an expensive toy but so are almost all cars which don't provide the lifestyle. Life is too short and I would rather look positive than doom and gloom.

 

[Ozzy Pete]

Our Bentley is comfortable and at a push you could sleep in it unlike our Lamborghini which is not comfortable to sleep in and at 12 mpg not that economical but gets you there quite quick. Our Winnebago is quite comfortable but at over £500k and 6 mpg plus it’s a pig to park in Tesco’s...Don’t Care if they hold their value because I will but 3 new ones next year.