Coronavirus Impact

[T6 CFO]

Whatever the final outcome the blame game and finger pointing will be in full force in the media and Parliament.

Fortunately the experts will be getting there heads together and improving on the emergency strategy for the future.



Mike

 

[Ch1pbutty]

If it’s in the wrong thread, please let me know:

 

[Velma's Dad]

reading that plan I now feel quite depressed.

The blasé acceptance of socially and politically unacceptable levels of deaths and no mention of any of the actions that have been shown to be essential elsewhere. Up to now I actually thought that "being guided by the science" was a comfort and far better than being guided by political populism. I now find it quite unsettling.

I guess it shows that politicians can and should be guided by the science but it's still their job to make the judgements about society's priorities, on our behalf. I do wonder whether (at contingency planning stage) the public health professionals ever said to them "well you COULD make an effort to prepare to use heavy duty testing and contact tracing in an outbreak, which might work, BUT you'd have to invest £xxx millions in a UK-based test kit manufacturing capacity, which you'll probably never use, AND persuade the public to sharing their mobile phone contacts with the government, just in case."

If that option wasn't at least put to politicians, then the civil servants have failed us. If it was, but the politicians decided not to contemplate it, then we can blame them. But of course I've no idea what I'd have done, back then, if I'd had to decide.

 

[WelshGas]

reading that plan I now feel quite depressed.

The blasé acceptance of socially and politically unacceptable levels of deaths and no mention of any of the actions that have been shown to be essential elsewhere. Up to now I actually thought that "being guided by the science" was a comfort and far better than being guided by political populism. I now find it quite unsettling.

Unfortunately that is real life. Not everything can be fixed, and not everyone can be saved. Working in ICU for over 30 years I’ve lost count of the number of times I refused to accept a patient but I always explained to the family what ICU actually meant and what it entailed and the likely outcome and once they realised they accepted the decision.

The Influenza Pandemic Plan was based on a known disease profile but Coronavirus was unknown. Will enforced quarantine work? Nobody knows but we will find out shortly. Until we get a treatment or a vaccine our lives will be ruled by the virus.

Unfortunately, our lives are also ruled by the economy and a collapse of that could be more devastating in the short and long term, and that’s where an Antibody test is vitally important because if someone has had the virus and have immunity then they are no longer dangerous to society and can return to work.

Testing the general population has very little, if any benefit. All it means is that you do not have Coronavirus at this point in time, or you do have it. We know it’s in the general population but we don’t know who has recovered and has immunity.

 

[GrannyJen]

Unfortunately that is real life. Not everything can be fixed, and not everyone can be saved. Working in ICU for over 30 years I’ve lost count of the number of times I refused to accept a patient but I always explained to the family what ICU actually meant and what it entailed and the likely outcome and once they realised they accepted the decision.

The Influenza Pandemic Plan was based on a known disease profile but Coronavirus was unknown. Will enforced quarantine work? Nobody knows but we will find out shortly. Until we get a treatment or a vaccine our lives will be ruled by the virus.

Unfortunately, our lives are also ruled by the economy and a collapse of that could be more devastating in the short and long term, and that’s where an Antibody test is vitally important because if someone has had the virus and have immunity then they are no longer dangerous to society and can return to work.

Testing the general population has very little, if any benefit. All it means is that you do not have Coronavirus at this point in time, or you do have it. We know it’s in the general population but we don’t know who has recovered and has immunity.

Yes, I accept that and for any scientist, any politician, this is a no-win situation, no exits visible, only a fumble in a dark room hoping that by touching the walls you will find the way out. I'm sure a lot of mistakes will be made on the way but Imperial College now seem to have a firm grip on the modelling and the government at least is responding with energy.

 

[WelshGas]

A little perspective.
The Annual Death Rate in England &Wales in 2018 was?

Deaths registered in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths by age, sex, selected underlying causes of death and the leading causes of death. Contains death rates and death registrations by area of residence and single year of age.

www.ons.gov.uk

541,589 people die from All Causes, giving an averaged Daily Death Rate of 1,484.

Some of these “ Normal “ deaths are being attributed to Coronavirus as the patient was test positive when admitted.

I am not belittling the effect of Coronavirus but it would be interesting to know what the effect on the ” Normal “ Daily Death Rate is.

 

[GrannyJen]

I've had some cheerful reading tonight The Pandemic plan of 2011 and registry of deaths last year .....

I think when this is over I will return to the Imperial War museum for a bit of light relief ....

 

[GrannyJen]

However, on a very small scale, on a very personal level, a little bit of cheer.

Today, in my role as chairperson of a charity I finally agreed a deal with a large local transport and taxi company which means frontline staff called in to work unsocial hours at a local hospital now have a complimentary taxi to take them to and from work. Put a smile on my face at 5pm tonight, sadly not a glass in my hand as on the wagon at present.

 

[CaliBear]

A little perspective.
The Annual Death Rate in England &Wales in 2018 was?

Deaths registered in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths by age, sex, selected underlying causes of death and the leading causes of death. Contains death rates and death registrations by area of residence and single year of age.

www.ons.gov.uk

541,589 people die from All Causes, giving an averaged Daily Death Rate of 1,484.

Some of these “ Normal “ deaths are being attributed to Coronavirus as the patient was test positive when admitted.

I am not belittling the effect of Coronavirus but it would be interesting to know what the effect on the ” Normal “ Daily Death Rate is.

Yep, it certainly helps to put some perspective on things as horrible as this virus is. I had stated the death rates of road accidents, suicides and cancer earlier in the post and got chastised for it! I wasn't saying it was ok at all or saying any death is ok, but unfortunately that's life, we all still drive our cars despite the 1784 people that died on the roads in 2018 on the uk. One of the most shocking being the amount of suicides (6507 in 2018 on the uk), no doubt when the financial effects start to hit and people lose their livelihoods, homes and businesses this amount may be significantly increased.

 

[kave]

Our previous chief epidemiologist who is now an advisor to the WHO says that if the season influenzas came as a new thing in this time we would most likely treat it the same way as the Covid-19. Sweden is somewhat going on a different path than large parts of Europe. Our schools for kids up to 15 is still open. Work from home if you can. If you have even slight symptoms stay home. Gatherings of 500 and over is forbidden. You get paid sick leave from the first day. Only time will tell the difference. Hopefully we are going to have most small companies staying alive after this is over while Denmark and Norway will have most of them bankrupt.

 

[kave]

Health advice:

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

 

[CaliBear]

On a lighter note!

 

[ArunAlec]

View attachment 56515
On a lighter note!

I’m told the hose attachments are “bum guns”.

 

[Meoncoast]

View attachment 56515
On a lighter note!

OK Dear you can fill the motorhome up with water now

 

[DrJuanKerr]

Health advice:

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

To summarise,

1. "Don't be fat"
2. "Don't eat crap"
3. "Do more exercise"

Nothing new there tbh

 

[Jodalo]

View attachment 56515
On a lighter note!

“Dave, your colonic irrigation appointment has been cancelled”.

 

[Velma's Dad]

A little perspective.
The Annual Death Rate in England &Wales in 2018 was?

Deaths registered in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Registered deaths by age, sex, selected underlying causes of death and the leading causes of death. Contains death rates and death registrations by area of residence and single year of age.

www.ons.gov.uk

541,589 people die from All Causes, giving an averaged Daily Death Rate of 1,484.

Some of these “ Normal “ deaths are being attributed to Coronavirus as the patient was test positive when admitted.

I am not belittling the effect of Coronavirus but it would be interesting to know what the effect on the ” Normal “ Daily Death Rate is.

Another "interesting" question (sorry, I do recognise we're talking about real people here) is what is the relationship between life expectancy and changes in GDP. Obviously important as we are looking down the barrel of a major recession and, to some extent, it's a political decision how bad that will be as it will depend on how long the lockdown measures are maintained.

There was a prof. from Bristol Uni on BBC R4 yesterday (World at One) claiming a drop in GDP can be predicted to increase deaths from non-CV19 causes, not just the obvious ones like suicides but also from the more insidious relationship between life expectancy and poverty. Reductions in deaths from things like fewer road accidents etc will only partly offset that.

I'd heard before about that supposed relationship between GDP and deaths and did a quick bit of reading. It makes sense at a very approximate level - there's an observable correlation between countries' GDP per capita and life expectancies - but I think it's pretty hard to find a clear link for economy fluctuations in a single economy especially a rich one, where infant mortality is pretty much fixed.

Still, it underlines to me that we shouldn't expect our political leaders to apply the goal of every life saved from CV-19, regardless of the cost, because a collapsed economy also has stark consequences (and almost certainly most severely affected will be already-disadvantaged minorities, not we Cali-owners anyway).

So maybe the Donald has it right on this one? (There, that'll get Thursday started on the forum!).

 

[Amarillo]

Fingers crossed for Meg and Percy.

The vet phoned me before the appointment to check that it was necessary for me to come in. It was. I waited outside in the car. Katie came out and gave Meg a cursory examination and asked to keep her for another X-ray.

I took Percy’s medicine around to mum, left it on the doorstep. I spoke to mum keeping about 10m distance! Percy had perked up overnight, so no FaceTimed burial ceremony for perky Percy in the immediate future.

Picked Meg up in the afternoon. Vet thinks Meg probably has a break in her ankle - about 2mm of chipped bone. It’s trying to heal, but something caused it to get worse last week. Katie’s reluctant to splint it as bandaging can lead to different issues. Rest and time should heal it naturally. No infection so no more antibiotics, just anti inflammatory.

I trust Katie. She could be milking us for money over this, and she is not.

 

[CaliBear]

The vet phoned me before the appointment to check that it was necessary for me to come in. It was. I waited outside in the car. Katie came out and gave Meg a cursory examination and asked to keep her for another X-ray.

I took Percy’s medicine around to mum, left it on the doorstep. I spoke to mum keeping about 10m distance! Percy had perked up overnight, so no FaceTimed burial ceremony for perky Percy in the immediate future.

Picked Meg up in the afternoon. Vet thinks Meg probably has a break in her ankle - about 2mm of chipped bone. It’s trying to heal, but something caused it to get worse last week. Katie’s reluctant to splint it as bandaging can lead to different issues. Rest and time should heal it naturally. No infection so no more antibiotics, just anti inflammatory.

I trust Katie. She could be milking us for money over this, and she is not.

That seems like some good news.
Hope things continue to improve for them both.

 

[willwander]

So maybe the Donald has it right on this one? (There, that'll get Thursday started on the forum!).

I think Trump said “The cure should not be worse than the problem”

He has his faults, (many) but like Putin he sometimes has the gall to say what others darn’t but may be thinking

 

[GillianC]

I reckon that the people who might benefit most when this is all over are the divorce lawyers

 

[GillianC]

The vet phoned me before the appointment to check that it was necessary for me to come in. It was. I waited outside in the car. Katie came out and gave Meg a cursory examination and asked to keep her for another X-ray.

I took Percy’s medicine around to mum, left it on the doorstep. I spoke to mum keeping about 10m distance! Percy had perked up overnight, so no FaceTimed burial ceremony for perky Percy in the immediate future.

Picked Meg up in the afternoon. Vet thinks Meg probably has a break in her ankle - about 2mm of chipped bone. It’s trying to heal, but something caused it to get worse last week. Katie’s reluctant to splint it as bandaging can lead to different issues. Rest and time should heal it naturally. No infection so no more antibiotics, just anti inflammatory.

I trust Katie. She could be milking us for money over this, and she is not.

Excellent news - good to have a vet who you trust and does the right thing for your animal. When our old BT had the ulcer on his eye that wouldn't heal they said that he would have to have the eye removed! He could hardly stand poor creature so sadly we had to say goodbye. No way could or should we put him through that.

 

[GrannyJen]

As @Velma's Dad said in a previous comment, our scientists may predict the best course to save lives, our leaders must manage that course to equally keep the economy and social fabric alive.

Who would be in any leaders shoes right now,

So easy to throw bricks when it's not your windows in the firing line.

 

[Scoobz1]

Some very useful information here - beautifully presented - /https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

 

[andyinluton]

Some very useful information here - beautifully presented - /https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Amazing how much information you can miss represent statistically ( and the stats are a week old)

Look at the graph for deaths from other diseases - makes it look like the virus is insignificant, then cross off all the diseases that are not prevalent in the uk - ie rabies, then cross off all the diseases that are common in the uk but usually treatable or vacinated against - measles & you are suddenly left with the virus being the most likely disease to kill you.

If you were then to allow the virus to spread naturally without lock-down, the NHS would be overwhelmed & the death rates would rocket.
The current relatively low death rate is due to all patients being able to be treated, a few more cases at each hospital & we are into selecting which patients get treated.
Unfortunately people need to see that hundreds are dying in order to see that lockdown / segregation / isolation is needed & take it seriously.