Coronavirus Impact

[Amarillo]

Put it another way,
1, You should not have unprotected sex with someone carrying an STD.
2, You must not have unprotected sex with someone carrying an STD.
There's no confusion there for me. I know what to do.

I don't doubt that you do know what not to do. But would you like to have a policeman threaten to arrest you if you did?

 

[westfalia]

Viable?

By yesterday, the reported death toll in Germany was 395. Although rising fast, it was still far short of the 1,019 in Britain, 1,995 in France, 5,690 in Spain and 9,134 in Italy. It also had fewer cases of serious illness.

“The strategy is you track down every positive case and try to get results from the people with whom this person was in contact,” said Reinhard Busse, head of the department of healthcare management at the Berlin University of Technology. “The earlier you start with that the better you are able to track the spread of the disease.”

The approach — similar to that successfully followed in South Korea — explains why the chancellor, Angela Merkel, was quarantined last week after a doctor who had vaccinated her tested positive for the virus. Busse said: “We are waiting to see if her test result turns positive. That’s still the general strategy, even though it becomes harder the more cases you have. It’s not just for the chancellor but for everyone.”

Such tests — Germany is now carrying out about 500,000 a week — are conducted not only at GPs’ surgeries or hospitals: drive-through testing has been offered in special tents. One has been erected at Munich’s Theresienwiese, site of the annual Oktoberfest beer festival, where queues of cars formed last week. People can also test themselves at home and drop off the kits at laboratories.

The German government plans to chart the spread of the disease by testing how many people have acquired antibodies. Researchers hope to have done 100,000 tests by the end of next month, which would be repeated regularly to help decide when to reopen schools and lift other restrictions.

Those shown to have developed immunity could be given a “kind of vaccination passport that allows them, for example, to be exempted from curbs on their activities”, Gérard Krause, a leading immunologist co-ordinating the study, told Der Spiegel magazine.

 

[WelshGas]

Just over two weeks ago Patrick Vallance told the Today programme that the government’s strategy for fighting the Covid-19 outbreak was built around herd immunity. This is a tried and tested method for managing outbreaks of infectious disease: once a sufficiently large proportion of the population has some form of immunity, acquired either through vaccination or surviving a disease, it becomes impossible for it to spread. Herd immunity worked for smallpox and it worked for measles - or at least it did until the anti-vaxxers decided that they would exercise their freedom of choice by refusing to immunise themselves or their children.
The problem with herd immunity acquired through infection is that it comes at a price: namely that, in this first epidemic (and be in no doubt that this is not the only outbreak of Covid-19 that we will endure), the disease runs riot and the mortality is substantial. A large number of at-risk people will die while the rest of the population is acquiring immunity. This is likely why, once the reality of what herd immunity implies had started to dawn on the population at large, we have heard no more about it.

The alternative strategy is to do what China and, to a lesser extent, Israel have done. In China the state knows where you are, or more specifically, where your mobile phone is at any given time. It can prevent you attending subversive events, it can tell whether you really are off sick or have just decided to spend a lazy day in bed. It can tell immediately if you have decided to breach the curfew, send a drone to tell you off and deliver an on-the-spot fine.
In 1948, the government of Israel declared a state of emergency to enable it to manage the war that followed the founding of the nation; that state of emergency has been in place ever since. History has shown repeatedly that liberties surrendered, however noble the cause, may be a long time returning.
So there is both a medical and a philosophical reason why the authoritarian approach is not necessarily the answer.
Medically, fighting an epidemic by suppressing it through draconian restrictions of liberty achieves the opposite of herd immunity. It ensures that the majority of survivors have no immunity and so are at just as much risk next time around. Of course, the advocates of this approach are banking on the development of vaccines and other therapies for the management of the next epidemic. But a usable vaccine will almost certainly not be available by the time this disease comes back for an encore. Novel treatments based on anti-malarial drugs and antibiotics will also need to be evaluated in proper clinical trials. So, we will have to do the same again next time with the attendant risks to the economy and the fabric of society.
The philosophical question therefore is, in fighting this disease, what kind of society and economy do we want to leave to our children and grandchildren? To what extent are we prepared to throw the baby out with the bathwater?
Much has been written and said about how this is the greatest emergency facing our nation – indeed, the world – since the Second World War. Then, more than 30 million people died fighting fascist ideology. There are few who question the justness of that struggle.
For centuries we have found no difficulty in asking young men and women to put their lives at risk in defence of our democracy, to say nothing of asking them to do so in pursuit of some often questionable economic and colonial aims. The difference this time is that it would be those of us in the last third of our lives being asked to bear the greatest risk as opposed to those who should still have decades of life ahead of them.
I strongly suspect that herd immunity has not disappeared from the agenda of the Cobra committee. I certainly hope that is the case because, when our children and grandchildren emerge blinking into the post-apocalyptic dawn I, for one, hope that the society into which they emerge is broadly-speaking the same as the one in which I have lived my life – not one that resembles the People’s Republic of China.

Jullien Gaer is a consultant cardiac surgeon

 

[WelshGas]

The more I read about what is happening in Europe and elsewhere then the less I believe the figures etc: released by the Chinese Government. Time will tell.

 

[Joker 1299]

The more I read about what is happening in Europe and elsewhere then the less I believe the figures etc: released by the Chinese Government. Time will tell.

Nobody really knows, do they. Who is going to isolate all the bats and pangolins?

 

[Amarillo]

The more I read about what is happening in Europe and elsewhere then the less I believe the figures etc: released by the Chinese Government. Time will tell.

There is nothing not to believe in the Chinese figures. The number who died with confirmed Covid-19 is what they say. What are not included are the myriad who died without confirmed Covid-19. Those with Wuhan hukou whose local party committee decided symptoms were either too mild or to severe to warrant a test and a hospital bed; migrant workers without healthcare rights in Wuhan who died in their shacks and bodies consumed in mass cremations. Like the 1918 Spanish pandemic, the true number of Covid-19 deaths in China will never be known, just a probably a large range between a maximum and minimum, where the minimum is well above the confirmed figure and the maximum a scale factor higher than the confirmed figure.

China will have a register somewhere of deaths, and by comparing actual deaths with expected deaths they may get a better idea of the number who fell victim to Covid-19, but China's death rate is currently about 7 per thousand population: 750,000 deaths per month. Even 200,000 extra deaths in January and February above the expected 1,500,000 will only show up as a little bulge. A spike rather than a bulge if looking at Wuhan only.

 

[Joker 1299]

There is nothing not to believe in the Chinese figures. The number who died with confirmed Covid-19 is what they say. What are not included are the myriad who died without confirmed Covid-19. Those with Wuhan hukou whose local party committee decided symptoms were either too mild or to severe to warrant a test and a hospital bed; migrant workers without healthcare rights in Wuhan who died in their shacks and bodies consumed in mass cremations. Like the 1918 Spanish pandemic, the true number of Covid-19 deaths in China will never be known, just a probably a large range between a maximum and minimum, where the minimum is well above the confirmed figure and the maximum a scale factor higher than the confirmed figure.

China will have a register somewhere of deaths, and by comparing actual deaths with expected deaths they may get a better idea of the number who fell victim to Covid-19, but China's death rate is currently about 7 per thousand population: 750,000 deaths per month. Even 200,000 extra deaths in January and February above and expected 1,500,000 will only show up as a little bulge. A spike rather than a bulge if looking at Wuhan only.

So we don’t disbelieve the Chinese figures, we just accept that they don’t give the complete picture?

 

[Ting Tong]

Just over two weeks ago Patrick Vallance told the Today programme that the government’s strategy for fighting the Covid-19 outbreak was built around herd immunity. This is a tried and tested method for managing outbreaks of infectious disease: once a sufficiently large proportion of the population has some form of immunity, acquired either through vaccination or surviving a disease, it becomes impossible for it to spread. Herd immunity worked for smallpox and it worked for measles - or at least it did until the anti-vaxxers decided that they would exercise their freedom of choice by refusing to immunise themselves or their children.
The problem with herd immunity acquired through infection is that it comes at a price: namely that, in this first epidemic (and be in no doubt that this is not the only outbreak of Covid-19 that we will endure), the disease runs riot and the mortality is substantial. A large number of at-risk people will die while the rest of the population is acquiring immunity. This is likely why, once the reality of what herd immunity implies had started to dawn on the population at large, we have heard no more about it.

The alternative strategy is to do what China and, to a lesser extent, Israel have done. In China the state knows where you are, or more specifically, where your mobile phone is at any given time. It can prevent you attending subversive events, it can tell whether you really are off sick or have just decided to spend a lazy day in bed. It can tell immediately if you have decided to breach the curfew, send a drone to tell you off and deliver an on-the-spot fine.
In 1948, the government of Israel declared a state of emergency to enable it to manage the war that followed the founding of the nation; that state of emergency has been in place ever since. History has shown repeatedly that liberties surrendered, however noble the cause, may be a long time returning.
So there is both a medical and a philosophical reason why the authoritarian approach is not necessarily the answer.
Medically, fighting an epidemic by suppressing it through draconian restrictions of liberty achieves the opposite of herd immunity. It ensures that the majority of survivors have no immunity and so are at just as much risk next time around. Of course, the advocates of this approach are banking on the development of vaccines and other therapies for the management of the next epidemic. But a usable vaccine will almost certainly not be available by the time this disease comes back for an encore. Novel treatments based on anti-malarial drugs and antibiotics will also need to be evaluated in proper clinical trials. So, we will have to do the same again next time with the attendant risks to the economy and the fabric of society.
The philosophical question therefore is, in fighting this disease, what kind of society and economy do we want to leave to our children and grandchildren? To what extent are we prepared to throw the baby out with the bathwater?
Much has been written and said about how this is the greatest emergency facing our nation – indeed, the world – since the Second World War. Then, more than 30 million people died fighting fascist ideology. There are few who question the justness of that struggle.
For centuries we have found no difficulty in asking young men and women to put their lives at risk in defence of our democracy, to say nothing of asking them to do so in pursuit of some often questionable economic and colonial aims. The difference this time is that it would be those of us in the last third of our lives being asked to bear the greatest risk as opposed to those who should still have decades of life ahead of them.
I strongly suspect that herd immunity has not disappeared from the agenda of the Cobra committee. I certainly hope that is the case because, when our children and grandchildren emerge blinking into the post-apocalyptic dawn I, for one, hope that the society into which they emerge is broadly-speaking the same as the one in which I have lived my life – not one that resembles the People’s Republic of China.

Jullien Gaer is a consultant cardiac surgeon

Exactly. The herd immunity plan is the only exit. We can’t all sit around in isolation forever with the economy going down the pan. As soon as we start to regain our freedom it will come back. The question is managing the nhs to cope with the saveable lives of those that get it. As grim as it is, Vallance was right.

 

[Amarillo]

So we don’t disbelieve the Chinese figures, we just accept that they don’t give the complete picture?

Exactly - the same for every nation publishing figures. There is no reliable estimate anywhere of the percentage of the population who have been infected. For all the testing that has gone on, all it can do is say if someone is currently infected. A negative result can mean one of two things: never infected or recovered.

The difference with China is that testing was less extensive, so the figures even less reliable. But the figures given are accurate for what they are: the numbers testing positive, and the numbers who died after testing positive.

It is not that China is trying to hide the real numbers, it’s just that they don’t know.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Joker 1299]

Exactly - the same for every nation publishing figures. There is no reliable estimate anywhere of the percentage of the population who have been infected. For all the testing that has gone on, all it can do is say if someone is currently infected. A negative result can mean one of two things: never infected or recovered.

The difference with China is that testing was less extensive, so the figures even less reliable. But the figures given are accurate for what they are: the numbers testing positive, and the numbers who died after testing positive.

It is not that China is trying to hide the real numbers, it’s just that they don’t know.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

So your statement ‘There is nothing not to believe in the Chinese figures’ is meaningless and the rest of your post would have been equally valid without it, just less confrontational.

 

[Amarillo]

So your statement ‘There is nothing not to believe in the Chinese figures’ is meaningless and the rest of your post would have been equally valid without it, just less confrontational.

The point I'm trying to make, but clearly not doing very well, is that while the Chinese figures are of limited value, they are not made up. The only difference between the Chinese reporting and other countries is that testing is more extensive now.

 

[Digger]

The figures from China are those the government determine can be released and as such are meaningless. A strict regime controls all and harsh punishment given out to those who challenge. We will never know the true number of deaths there.
That said we can only await the scientific efforts to come up with a vaccine (maybe) and do our best to stay safe and limit our interactions in the belief of a positive outcome. Hopefully the government will get the finger out and do extensive testing sooner rather than later.
If it means restrictions meantime so be it. At least we should support the NHS by helping and not creating potentially more problems.

 

[T6 CFO]

Antibody testing will enable All those who have had it and have immunity to go back to work and a normal life.
The Antibody -tve would then be the problem. The Severely at risk should continue isolation until a vaccine is available. But what to do with the others? Do they continue isolation or take the risk?

The question you ask seems to have been largely ignored while the minutiae is being discussed at great length.

Early days still but I was looking at our small herd which are the only ones I can vouch for with certainty.

We have 3 boys with three partners in London, New York and Bristol.

Just taking them their partners and parents we have 14.

We are as certain as it is possible to be that the 4 in Bristol have all joined the herd.

All of us have been self isolating very strictly except for two in Bristol who were in critical jobs.

The two in London and New York are locked up tighter than a tight thing in flats but expect and are content to join the herd at some point.

So we are likely to have 6 others with us two being the eldest.

Our best bet for the moment is to stay isolated, do our bit to prevent the spike and then reassess our options when more information is available, which it will be.

I suspect there will come a time when there is no vaccine, but the situation is under control with a decline in the spread and available ICU facilities.

So our plan is to stay isolated at least until such time as we could guarantee an ICU bed if required and not add to the problem.

In the meantime work to improve our overall general health which is generally pretty good for our age. Mid 60’s.

We are fortunate that we live in Devon and have a garden and a beach to walk on.

Hopefully the powers that be will come up with a cunning plan where they let a few of us out of the coup at a time as resources become available or the herd protects us.

NB: Early on there was probably a case for being an early member of the herd but that time has passed. The upside was there were available ICU beds, the downside being a possible drain on the NHS and the likelihood that time would give more knowledge. This is all academic now anyway.

What is very clear is that the worse case scenario is a failure to control the spread resulting in people dying unnecessarily due to a breakdown in the NHS.




Mike

 

[Vagophile]

Quite a lot going on in this thread.
Welsh Gas says "In China the state knows where you are, or more specifically, where your mobile phone is at any given time" I assume that he is well aware that this applies to the state in the United Kingdom and they have reinforced their powers of surveillance and detention. Be very afraid people.
Regarding herd immunity, we might find out which strategy was the best if Sweden continues on it's chosen course.
Regarding self isolation, was Henry VIII right or wrong to lock himself away during the black death outbreaks in his time?
On a personal note, all that I have to do is make sure that I can buy food. I haven't lost my job I'm not desperate for money and I'm not at risk attending to very ill people. I'm very grateful to those who are.

 

[Lightning]

We are fortunate that we live in Devon and have a garden and a beach to walk on.

Government advice:

• if you have a garden, make use of the space for exercise and fresh air

Going to the beach is maybe not essential.

 

[T6 CFO]

Government advice:

• if you have a garden, make use of the space for exercise and fresh air

Going to the beach is maybe not essential.

The beach is virtually my front garden.

We’re not talking about traveling to it. Perhaps you could comment on the main thrust of my post rather than drag it into yours.


Mike

 

[Lightning]

The beach is virtually my front garden.

We’re not talking about traveling to it. Perhaps you could comment on the main thrust of my post rather than drag it into yours.


Mike

Ok, so the government advice only applies to other people. I understand.

 

[T6 CFO]

Ok, so the government advice only applies to other people. I understand.

You are demeaning this BB by your behaviour. It’s an embarrassment and childish in the extreme.

What’s worse is your stifling any useful discussion.


Mike

 

[GrannyJen]

Ok, so the government advice only applies to other people. I understand.

You should only leave the house for very limited purposes:

• shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible.
• one form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle - alone or with members of your household.
• any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.
• travelling for work purposes, but only where you cannot work from home.

 

[Lightning]

You should only leave the house for very limited purposes:

• shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible.
• one form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle - alone or with members of your household.
• any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.
• travelling for work purposes, but only where you cannot work from home.

From the Gov website:
Please use the following guidance in order to stay safe:

• stay local and use open spaces near to your home where possible – do not travel unnecessarily
• you should only go outside alone or with members of your own household
• keep at least 2 metres apart from anyone outside your household at all times
• gatherings of more than two in parks or other public spaces have been banned and the police will enforce this
• if you have a garden, make use of the space for exercise and fresh air
• take hygiene precautions when you are outside, and wash your hands as soon as you are back indoors

 

[Velma's Dad]

How about a nice picture of Mike's beach. That would make my day!
(And I dare you to drive your Cali onto it Mike).

 

[GrannyJen]

From the Gov website:
Please use the following guidance in order to stay safe:

• stay local and use open spaces near to your home where possible – do not travel unnecessarily
• you should only go outside alone or with members of your own household
• keep at least 2 metres apart from anyone outside your household at all times
• gatherings of more than two in parks or other public spaces have been banned and the police will enforce this
• if you have a garden, make use of the space for exercise and fresh air
• take hygiene precautions when you are outside, and wash your hands as soon as you are back indoors

Yes, I make use of my very limited garden, and with the positive encouragement of the CMO I make use of the "exersize once a day keeping at least two metres apart using open spaces near to my home," as with Mike my open space is a beach which was completely deserted at 7am this morning.

 

[Lightning]

You are demeaning this BB by your behaviour. It’s an embarrassment and childish in the extreme.

What’s worse is your stifling any useful discussion.


Mike

Anything you disagree with is not relevant detail, in your view.
Pointing out your behaviour conflicts with government advice is not really either an embarrassment for me or stifling useful discussion.

 

[T6 CFO]

How about a nice picture of Mike's beach. That would make my day!
(And I dare you to drive your Cali onto it Mike).

Mike

 

[Jodalo]

You are demeaning this BB by your behaviour. It’s an embarrassment and childish in the extreme.

What’s worse is your stifling any useful discussion.


Mike

Oooooh! Somebody’s tired. Childish I know, but I couldn’t help it.