Coronavirus Impact

[GrannyJen]

Re Sainsbury's, our 3 local stores have all struggled to restock a lot of lines recently and are barren whilst others, Aldi and local chain Booth's have recovered very quickly from the panic buying stage and are now well stocked. Not great from such a big player.

It does appear regional.

Sainsbury's and Waitrose have been the star players down here whilst judging by the high dudgeon I have been having to moderate on my local community forum Asda are nothing but wankers and Tesco are playing a middle bat.

Of course this is the terribly blue South coast where no one admits going to Aldi despite the car park being full.

From my own personal experience of being in 12 weeks lockdown and reliant on home delivery, I feel totally abandoned by Waitrose whilst Sainsbury's recognised me as a "vulnerable person" three weeks ago and put me on the priority list which means I've had no problem getting home deliveries.

Of course the thing that pis upsets me most is finding myself on a vulnerable list Somehow being considered for care in the community sits very painfully with me.

 

[GrannyJen]

I think he does.
One thing he has not mentioned is that those figures of deaths due to influenza are against a background of Annual Winter Flu Vaccinations.

There is no vaccination for Coronavirus.

I think his comments would carry more weight without the “ Conspiracy Theory “ Element.

and, as I understand it, will never really be an effective one.

To my simple, non-MD mind we are faced with a stark choice. A virus is rampaging around, probably long term no more dangerous than seasonal flu, but with no one having any immunity to the thing the choice is trash the economy by having lots of people off sick at any one time whilst simultaneously overwhelming the health service or trash the economy to flatten the curve and hopefully keep healthcare functioning. Either way most of us are going to get this thing, the only variable is when.

I've probably got it all wrong but then as I said In an earlier response I'm happy now to just follow the herd, or flock, as long as Sainsbury's can deliver me chocolate during my 12 week meltdown.

 

[Velma's Dad]

I think he does.
One thing he has not mentioned is that those figures of deaths due to influenza are against a background of Annual Winter Flu Vaccinations.

There is no vaccination for Coronavirus.

I think his comments would carry more weight without the “ Conspiracy Theory “ Element.

That raises a question: if we had no vaccination programme for seasonal flu, what would be the over-demand on NHS critical care capacity (and thereby "excess excess deaths") in a bad flu season? (Or indeed, are the bad flu seasons bad because the vaccination is substantially less effective in those episodes).

I realise there's no was of answering that reliably, just pondering.

 

[WelshGas]

It does appear regional.

Sainsbury's and Waitrose have been the star players down here whilst judging by the high dudgeon I have been having to moderate on my local community forum Asda are nothing but wankers and Tesco are playing a middle bat.

Of course this is the terribly blue South coast where no one admits going to Aldi despite the car park being full.

From my own personal experience of being in 12 weeks lockdown and reliant on home delivery, I feel totally abandoned by Waitrose whilst Sainsbury's recognised me as a "vulnerable person" three weeks ago and put me on the priority list which means I've had no problem getting home deliveries.

Of course the thing that pis upsets me most is finding myself on a vulnerable list Somehow being considered for care in the community sits very painfully with me.

Funny but where my son is in Sydney there are 2 major Supermarkets, Coles and Aldi.
Coles is equivalent to Tesco or a little better, but Aldi is equivalent to Waitrose and is the only group that sells alcohol in store, their own brands and some upmarket European and World brands.

 

[Jodalo]

It does appear regional.

Sainsbury's and Waitrose have been the star players down here whilst judging by the high dudgeon I have been having to moderate on my local community forum Asda are nothing but wankers and Tesco are playing a middle bat.

Of course this is the terribly blue South coast where no one admits going to Aldi despite the car park being full.

From my own personal experience of being in 12 weeks lockdown and reliant on home delivery, I feel totally abandoned by Waitrose whilst Sainsbury's recognised me as a "vulnerable person" three weeks ago and put me on the priority list which means I've had no problem getting home deliveries.

Of course the thing that pis upsets me most is finding myself on a vulnerable list Somehow being considered for care in the community sits very painfully with me.

‘High dudgeon’, what a great expression. Reminds me of the great Terry Wogan. I think the local Coop have been brilliant for us.

 

[Amarillo]

Is the lockdown working?

Looking at the curve of infections, the situation looks desperate.



But if you switch to a logarithmic scale it doesn't look quite so bad. The gradient of the curve is beginning to flatten. The number of new infections each day has been between 2000 and 3000 each day for the past five days, and appears to be no longer accelerating.



Has Boris pulled a blinder?

Source data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
The charts are my own.

 

[Louis II]

Has Boris pulled a blinder?

Or have docbob and Michael Levit got it right after all.........

‘We’re going to be fine’: Nobel winner predicts coronavirus’ end

‘If you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[WelshGas]

That raises a question: if we had no vaccination programme for seasonal flu, what would be the over-demand on NHS critical care capacity (and thereby "excess excess deaths") in a bad flu season? (Or indeed, are the bad flu seasons bad because the vaccination is substantially less effective in those episodes).

I realise there's no was of answering that reliably, just pondering.

The Flu vaccine is based on a number of strains of Influenza based on what strains were seen in the sub- equator countries during their winter period and various epidemiological data and is not definitive. So they can get the mix wrong and then you get a bad season. They also have to make a best guess decision some months in advance in order to prepare and make enough doses. A complicated business.

 

[GrannyJen]

Is the lockdown working?

Looking at the curve of infections, the situation looks desperate.

View attachment 56783

But if you switch to a logarithmic scale it doesn't look quite so bad. The gradient of the curve is beginning to flatten. The number of new infections each day has been between 2000 and 3000 each day for the past five days, and appears to be no longer accelerating.

View attachment 56784

Has Boris pulled a blinder?

Source data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
The charts are my own.

I think the only thing to have pulled a blinder is the virus.

In my memory nothing has shafted so many politicians at once.

Simply brilliant... and pollution levels dropping like a stone as a bonus.

 

[WelshGas]

Or have docbob and Michael Levit got it right after all.........

‘We’re going to be fine’: Nobel winner predicts coronavirus’ end

‘If you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day’

www.independent.co.uk

Interesting but Levit still champions Social Isolation as a method to control the flow of hospital admissions and he certainly doesn't liken Coronavirus to the Flu.

 

[SailSki]

Cailler is one of my favourites. The Cailler chocolate factory in Broc between Lausanne and Fribourg used to be fantastic for visitors - a free tour and then a tasting room to try all their flavours - all quite amateur and many people just filled their pockets. Now it is much slicker and they actually make you pay for the tour, and then trap you in the gifte shoppe at the end....Don't think they have woken up to Easter eggs though

 

[Amarillo]

River Taw?

Yes

 

[SailSki]

There I was thinking I was replying quickly in context on chocolate and the whole conversation had actually moved on two pages and back on track...

 

[Moakesy]

I was going to this was off topic, but between beaches, Easter eggs and charts, I’m not sure what is on-topic anymore!

Some friends sent us a picture of the tent they’d had for 3 years but never put up before now......

I quite like the idea of this being pitched next to a Cali and waiting the for the site wardens to come and investigate....

 

[docbob1]

Nice to see people are considering that this may not be the Armagedon Virus it has been purported to be by the media, now explore possibilties for our current approach to it. Well done Welsh Gas, you are entirely correct, the flu figures would be far worse if it wasn't for an effective flu vaccination programme. More puzzling to this current lock down where we have are elderly isolated from family/friends, lonely and many frightened (they will get a 3 month sentence with quite a few dying after 'giving up') is the 2015 Flu killed children and pregnant women, the Corona doesn't seem to do this. Not one child under 10 in China has died!!
With regards to Flu vaccines they are at best 30-50% effective (experience of H1N1/ H3N2 vaccines) and the older you get, the less effective your uptake of immunity i.e. works least in the vulnerable elderly.
Dream on for a Corona Vaccine, never been one made yet despite enormous rewards for Pharmaceutical companies if they could. The coryza group of viruses (The Greeks word for 'snot' 3000yrs ago by the way ,as they knew of the 'cold' as a disease) of which corona makes up 10%, are great at altering antigenic structure in a matter of weeks.

 

[HB19]

I

Nice to see people are considering that this may not be the Armagedon Virus it has been purported to be by the media, now explore possibilties for our current approach to it. Well done Welsh Gas, you are entirely correct, the flu figures would be far worse if it wasn't for an effective flu vaccination programme. More puzzling to this current lock down where we have are elderly isolated from family/friends, lonely and many frightened (they will get a 3 month sentence with quite a few dying after 'giving up') is the 2015 Flu killed children and pregnant women, the Corona doesn't seem to do this. Not one child under 10 in China has died!!
With regards to Flu vaccines they are at best 30-50% effective (experience of H1N1/ H3N2 vaccines) and the older you get, the less effective your uptake of immunity i.e. works least in the vulnerable elderly.
Dream on for a Corona Vaccine, never been one made yet despite enormous rewards for Pharmaceutical companies if they could. The coryza group of viruses (The Greeks word for 'snot' 3000yrs ago by the way ,as they knew of the 'cold' as a disease) of which corona makes up 10%, are great at altering antigenic structure in a matter of weeks.

I don’t really understand the point you are attempting to make here. COVID -19 is not a flu virus, it is a novel virus .. ie a brand new one which has only recently jumped from animals to humans. That is why we do not have immunity to it.
We do however have a flu vaccine which is reasonable effective most of the time and offers some otherwise vulnerable people a fighting chance of shaking it off. Any vaccine which is developed for this latest coronavirus will probably have a shaky start but will improve over time (just as the flu vaccine has improved).
Re the numbers being quoted in the UK and elsewhere for both infections and death rates. These will not be totally accurate or comparable due to different ways of reporting, time lag etc.
This is to my mind undoubtedly extremely serious for humanity and should not be dismissed as yet another flu virus, it is not!

 

[Karlos]

Re Sainsbury's, our 3 local stores have all struggled to restock a lot of lines recently and are barren whilst others, Aldi and local chain Booth's have recovered very quickly from the panic buying stage and are now well stocked. Not great from such a big player.

I have a Cali, cant afford to Panic buy at Booths.

 

[docbob1]

HB19
You fail to see what I am saying, the flu stats I provide are to put this current corona outbreak in perspective and ask why we have these draconian measures. The corona is not influenza which is a far more worrying virus.You clearly have not undrstood why there will be NO vaccine to a Corona or any other RNA type virus. Spend some time researching viral 'plasticity', anti-genic drift and anti-genic change. You will understand the situation better and wonder why we have the measures inplace we have. DO NOT EXPECT A VACCINE for RNA type particularly coryza group, there will be none.

 

[Amarillo]

HB19
You fail to see what I am saying, the flu stats I provide are to put this current corona outbreak in perspective and ask why we have these draconian measures. The corona is not influenza which is a far more worrying virus.You clearly have not undrstood why there will be NO vaccine to a Corona or any other RNA type virus. Spend some time researching viral 'plasticity', anti-genic drift and anti-genic change. You will understand the situation better and wonder why we have the measures inplace we have. DO NOT EXPECT A VACCINE for RNA type particularly coryza group, there will be none.

The draconian measures are to reduce the risk of the NHS becoming overwhelmed and doctors having to make a choice over who they will treat and who they won’t. It’s as simple as that.

Placing most of the country under house arrest is the surest way to save lives.

 

[docbob1]

I can understand the logic, to minimise the NHS failings (with a £3B a week budget!) and the most pathetic number of intensive care beds ,currently 4000 of which the whole year round are 80% occupied, (easily verified see NHS England ICU bed occupancy) amounting to spare 800 beds. I and many others for years have asked/pleaded why we have such little leeway for when a viral (FLU most likely) epidemic occurs we have such shortfalls. We have the least number of ICU free beds per capita in Europe I believe (Italy has twice our number of beds but with her aging population is still inadequate).
It still does not address how we come out of these restrictions in our lives, do not for one minute expect to be 'free' in 2 weeks. No vaccine nor will there be (unless virus manufactured artificially for stability which I doubt is possible at present)
If you never met the virus you are not immune and back to square one! Epidemic reactivates.

After this is all over there are 2 things that must be done 1) ICU spare bed capacity must be increased and stop wasting public money in other aspects of NHS spending (huge administative costs, it is now the largest employer in the world). Those of my colleagues who continue in this behemoth organisation and see its failings but continue to work, I salute you.
2) if you don't want a Police state, write to your MP and get this current hurried made, empowering type legislation recinded after the crisis.

 

[HB19]

HB19
You fail to see what I am saying, the flu stats I provide are to put this current corona outbreak in perspective and ask why we have these draconian measures. The corona is not influenza which is a far more worrying virus.You clearly have not undrstood why there will be NO vaccine to a Corona or any other RNA type virus. Spend some time researching viral 'plasticity', anti-genic drift and anti-genic change. You will understand the situation better and wonder why we have the measures inplace we have. DO NOT EXPECT A VACCINE for RNA type particularly coryza group, there will be none.

I have noted your extremely patronising style but will engage. What you seem to have failed to grasp is that this is far worse than seasonal flu because we do not have a vaccine and it is proving to be even more deadly. I feel confident that in time there will be some sort of vaccine .. maybe different to what we may expect but something to help ease the effect and transmissibility of this terrible illness. You do not know that this will not be the case and I suspect you are not up to speed with the progress in biomedical sciences worldwide.
I will not start researching as you suggest but might suggest to you that you get your head out of the sand and accept that for several reasons, globally this is very serious indeed .. not that seasonal flu is not, but I personally cannot remember any time in the history of the NHS when hospitals have been so inundated with so many seriously ill patients (and I would know). That, is why (I will say it slowly) the draconian measures are in place. Flattening the curve is a real thing.

 

[T6 CFO]

I can understand the logic, to minimise the NHS failings (with a £3B a week budget!) and the most pathetic number of intensive care beds ,currently 4000 of which the whole year round are 80% occupied, (easily verified see NHS England ICU bed occupancy) amounting to spare 800 beds. I and many others for years have asked/pleaded why we have such little leeway for when a viral (FLU most likely) epidemic occurs we have such shortfalls. We have the least number of ICU free beds per capita in Europe I believe (Italy has twice our number of beds but with her aging population is still inadequate).
It still does not address how we come out of these restrictions in our lives, do not for one minute expect to be 'free' in 2 weeks. No vaccine nor will there be (unless virus manufactured artificially for stability which I doubt is possible at present)
If you never met the virus you are not immune and back to square one! Epidemic reactivates.

After this is all over there are 2 things that must be done 1) ICU spare bed capacity must be increased and stop wasting public money in other aspects of NHS spending (huge administative costs, it is now the largest employer in the world). Those of my colleagues who continue in this behemoth organisation and see its failings but continue to work, I salute you.
2) if you don't want a Police state, write to your MP and get this current hurried made, empowering type legislation recinded after the crisis.

I’ve been following your posts with some interest but I’m afraid you’ve lost me now the thrust has gone political.

I would guess we keep the most vulnerable locked down until we hit the downslope. It will then depend on the likelihood of a vaccine or the ability of the herd to protect them.

Our NHS will deal with this if we help them out.


Mike

 

[Amarillo]

The game changer will be the test to see who has immunity.

Once we know how many people are still susceptible to the virus restrictions can be relaxed or tightened allowing a manageable number of people into then out of hospital beds, hopefully an overwhelming majority out on two legs, but inevitably a tragic portion in a wooden box.

If the average hospital stay is 3.5 days, and 14,000 extra hospital beds are being created in the Nightingale/Seacole hospitals, then 4000 hospitalisations a day is manageable.

The length of time to normality will then be dependent on the % of the population who need hospital care. Six months has been suggested, but probably not at the current house arrest style lockdown with drones following those who have the temerity to walk their dogs in our National Parks.

 

[Borris]

The game changer will be the test to see who has immunity.

Once we know how many people are still susceptible to the virus restrictions can be relaxed or tightened allowing a manageable number of people into then out of hospital beds, hopefully an overwhelming majority out on two legs, but inevitably a tragic portion in a wooden box.

If the average hospital stay is 3.5 days, and 14,000 extra hospital beds are being created in the Nightingale/Seacole hospitals, then 4000 hospitalisations a day is manageable.

The length of time to normality will then be dependent on the % of the population who need hospital care. Six months has been suggested, but probably not at the current house arrest style lockdown with drones following those who have the temerity to walk their dogs in our National Parks.

I really don't think your "house arrest" quote is very helpful. Most people are staying at home because they realise that it is currently an essential public duty.

Also anyone ticked off for walking their dog in a National park needs to ask themselves if they really needed to go there to do it.

 

[WelshGas]

I think , so far, the NHS has done quite well. it was able to more than double the number of hospital ICU beds from 4000 to over 8000 by just stopping Elective Surgery and the Nightingale and other Field hospitals have added thousands of extra HDU and ICU beds.
No country is going to keep thousands of such beds vacant on the off chance of a Pandemic.
Also when comparing ICU bed numbers across different Health Systems we must be very careful of comparing like with like.
Also, Critical Care therapy is not something that should be offered to every patient. It is hard for the patient and their relatives and there has to be a chance of a positive outcome otherwise it can just be a form of torture for the patient and relatives.