Coronavirus Impact

I think , so far, the NHS has done quite well. it was able to more than double the number of hospital ICU beds from 4000 to over 8000 by just stopping Elective Surgery and the Nightingale and other Field hospitals have added thousands of extra HDU and ICU beds.
No country is going to keep thousands of such beds vacant on the off chance of a Pandemic.
Also when comparing ICU bed numbers across different Health Systems we must be very careful of comparing like with like.
Also, Critical Care therapy is not something that should be offered to every patient. It is hard for the patient and their relatives and there has to be a chance of a positive outcome otherwise it can just be a form of torture for the patient and relatives.

Thank you Paul,

We are in unprecedented times. I don't know when the Flu vaccine was introduced but prior to that every year would bring it's health care crises where just thinking you can go to the doctors was no longer an option, they were just too busy.

This country, and our NHS, frankly is mobilising incredibly well, so much energy and effort, so lets just stop sniping over anomalous bits of minutiae and get behind the national effort to get out of this.

Plenty of time afterwards to examine in minute detail about what might have been or what happened, plenty of time afterwards to examine in detail the incursion on civil liberties a national emergency has wrought, for now ..... back those rising to an incredible challenge.
 
Last edited:
Also anyone ticked off for walking their dog in a National park needs to ask themselves if they really needed to go there to do it.
More to the point, the police should ask themselves, is this any less safe than them walking in a busy city park.
 
The police over reaching their authority makes me uncomfortable, but as a spokesperson from liberty said on the radio, they may be understandable as long as they are in place no longer than absolutely necessary.
The threats of arson and criminal damage are however totally unacceptable. Many people live in their vans, so it is their home, and they have to deal with these online threats, on top of the anxiety everyone else is experiencing. Where can they go?
There are YouTube videos of them now parking up together In small groups for their own safety in numbers. It’s not illegal for them to be there, and the police understand this. It makes me worried about returning to the U.K. which can’t be right.
 
The police over reaching their authority makes me uncomfortable, but as a spokesperson from liberty said on the radio, they may be understandable as long as they are in place no longer than absolutely necessary.
The threats of arson and criminal damage are however totally unacceptable. Many people live in their vans, so it is their home, and they have to deal with these online threats, on top of the anxiety everyone else is experiencing. Where can they go?
There are YouTube videos of them now parking up together In small groups for their own safety in numbers. It’s not illegal for them to be there, and the police understand this. It makes me worried about returning to the U.K. which can’t be right.
Just to add that many people who live in vans are pretty vulnerable, I live in my van by choice, many others dont have a choice.
 
I totally agree that the police can’t be allowed to interpret the law and it’s up to the courts not them to decide whether your journey was reasonable. Clearly driving from Bristol to Pen-y-fan for a walk is not reasonable but driving from the Gurnos Estate in Merthyr certainly is.

It appears that the police are now trying to interpret what food is a “basic necessity” when a) that’s not their job and b) Section 6(2)(a) of The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 simply defines (all) food as a basic necessity and doesn’t say the food your buying has to be an essential. (Section 8(2)(a) of the Welsh Act)

We bought some daffodils in Asda and I’m wondering whether I should turn myself in.

 
Last edited:
[QUOTE="Amarillo, post: 410935

Similarly, guidelines are just that, guidelines. Each and every one of us has a responsibility to each other and should follow those guidelines. But a walk with a dog in the countryside is not following those guidelines and deserves tracking by drone.

If I choose to drive 30 minutes to Chevening and have a walk on the north dows overlooking the Weald of Kent and an hour's solitude, I will. And I don't expect to be harrassed for doing so.
[/QUOTE]
Snipping the two paragraphs from your post above Amarillo I don’t understand why you think it’s ok for dog walkers to be tracked by drone but then don’t expect to be yourself when going somewhere else for a walk.

As you have already stated you live in the epicentre of the outbreak surely you if anyone should be staying as close to home as possible. You’ve already said you have a huge park 3 doors away, wear gloves & use that rather than potentially spreading the virus further afield.
 
Snipping the two paragraphs from your post above Amarillo I don’t understand why you think it’s ok for dog walkers to be tracked by drone but then don’t expect to be yourself when going somewhere else for a walk.

As you have already stated you live in the epicentre of the outbreak surely you if anyone should be staying as close to home as possible. You’ve already said you have a huge park 3 doors away, wear gloves & use that rather than potentially spreading the virus further afield.
It was late when I posted, and I didn't proofread. The innocent dog walkers did not deserve to treated like a murderous brace of fugitives and tracked by drone - the pictures broadcast throughout the national media.

The park behind our garden is not huge. It has a playground, outdoor gym (both closed) football pitch, and some open space. It's on a hill. The gates make it very difficult for the boys to access on their bikes.
 
Last edited:
A massive backlash to Derbyshire Police on their Twitter feed after they posted the drone footage. We travelled 9miles yesterday to a different part of the Forest and it was wonderful to be out in the dusk with the dogs. Great for the dogs and for us.
 
Should have been off to Scotland today, instead had to plug the leisure batteries into the mains because the van hasn’t moved for 3 weeks :(
 
I shudder to think what it must be like to be parents of small children cooped up in a small high-rise flat. It must be hell.

On a lesser scale to be cooped up in a big city, with or without young children ....

but sadly these are not fair times: the virus is not fair: the state does not want us mingling and spreading the virus, it wants us all to be fairly static at the moment so the virus remains relatively static and scarce resources can be managed in the most effective way to prevent a collapse of our health care provision.

We have all seen pics and reports of overcrowded car-parks and people crowded together on various peaks and in assorted parks. I saw it where I live, my selected bit of once-a-day-exerisize curtailed because of a packed car park on Mothers day and crowds of people walking in large groups along the beach greensward 200 yards from my home.

Derbyshire Police overreacted. None of us want to see the spectre of a police state.However if people respected the spirit pf what is being asked, for goodness sake it really is not a lot, and stopped picking at it just to find a small advantage for themselves, then these acts of over zealous policing may be a little less prevalent, although again, as always only the worst are ever reported on.

I am not a scientist, an epidemiologist, an MD or a disaster management co-ordinator, however just as a simple human being I have seen first hand what happens when an epidemic rages and health care breaks down. None of us would ever want that and oh boy, if it ever happened then the finger pointing would really rip our society apart.

We are all going to have to live with the fact that most of us will be infected with this virus, there possibly will never be a vaccine, herd immunity may well be the only exit, whatever happens, whatever the outcome, it must be allowed to happen without the breakdown of health care, and that at the end of the day is down to us.
 
Last edited:
I am prepared to bet that the government's Stay at Home message, to be effective, needs to drive down population movement to a certain threshold, but not below it, in order to reduce the modelled peaking of acute cases within ICU capacity. If they needed to achieve something closer to 100% lock-down, they'd have forced all places of work to close apart from health and emergency services.

On that assumption, I think the recirculating assertions (not by central government, by the way) that it's unacceptable to get in your car and drive a couple of miles to a quiet open space to go for a walk will turn out to be like the campaign in 1939 to donate the railings outside your house to be melted down to make munitions: as it turned out the ironwork was of no practical value (much of it was dumped in the North Sea, it seems), but serving tokenistically to focus public resolve and "we're all in this together"-ness.

Meanwhile, Forestry Commission has just closed all of its car parks nation wide. Which no doubt will deter some from driving long distances to visit the New Forest - probably not a bad thing - but also will stop people in my area from visiting a small FC-managed wood that sits between several villages, slightly further than walking distance to reach, but which has been a safe place for local people with kids to drive to and go for a walk.

Just saying.
 
My understanding of being discouraged from driving to a place of exercise is that if you have a car accident, you will be putting more stress on the NHS so it's about limiting risk in more general terms.

I think the reason we aren't being told we "mustn't" do x,y & z is because the government are taking the line that overall, the general public will be more compliant if we are choosing to be sensible ourselves based on the info we're given rather than being told what to do. There will always be a few having parties, barbecues, meeting up with friends in the park etc. no matter what the rules are.

Some people will have nicer environments and options for exercise right from their doorstep than others. People with small children will find this lockdown harder than people without. Those who are high risk and have been advised not to go outside their front door at all must be really suffering. There will always someone better off and someone worse off than we are so right now it's about making the best of what we've got and trying to stay positive.
 
More to the point, the police should ask themselves, is this any less safe than them walking in a busy city park.
If, as you are trying to suggest, that it is preferable to drive to somewhere remote to take exercise, then every Tom, Dick and Harriet and their dogs would be doing it. This is something we have already witnessed in Snowdonia and elsewhere and is a practice that the Government has said is unacceptable during this pandemic. I see no reason why the police shouldn't monitor the situation and discourage people from doing thus.


QUOTE="Amarillo, post: 410946, member: 11232"]
It was late when I posted, and I didn't proofread. The innocent dog walkers did not deserve to treated like a murderous brace of fugitives and tracked by drone - the pictures broadcast throughout the national media.

The park behind our garden is not huge. It has a playground, outdoor gym (both closed) football pitch, and some open space. It's on a hill. The gates make it very difficult for the boys to access on their bikes.
[/QUOTE]
So what's wrong with you carrying their bikes through this entrance? Or why not walk instead of using a cycle? If the park is not huge there's always the option of doing several circuits. Are you not merely making excuses?

I'd quite like to take Mrs B off for our usual Wednesday afternoon picnic in the countryside. We always park somewhere remote and don't usually see anyone else. However, I won't be doing that for some time as it wouldn't be right. Every five minutes we are being reminded by the Government to stay at home and to take excersise once a day as near to where we live as possible. The message is clear and made for an accute life or death reason. Why don't we all just comply and stop trying to test the limits.
 
Last edited:
I am prepared to bet that the government's Stay at Home message, to be effective, needs to drive down population movement to a certain threshold, but not below it, in order to reduce the modelled peaking of acute cases within ICU capacity. If they needed to achieve something closer to 100% lock-down, they'd have forced all places of work to close apart from health and emergency services.

On that assumption, I think the recirculating assertions (not by central government, by the way) that it's unacceptable to get in your car and drive a couple of miles to a quiet open space to go for a walk will turn out to be like the campaign in 1939 to donate the railings outside your house to be melted down to make munitions: as it turned out the ironwork was of no practical value (much of it was dumped in the North Sea, it seems), but serving tokenistically to focus public resolve and "we're all in this together"-ness.

Meanwhile, Forestry Commission has just closed all of its car parks nation wide. Which no doubt will deter some from driving long distances to visit the New Forest - probably not a bad thing - but also will stop people in my area from visiting a small FC-managed wood that sits between several villages, slightly further than walking distance to reach, but which has been a safe place for local people with kids to drive to and go for a walk.

Just saying.
I think you are probably correct. As shown in the Foot and Mouth outbreak, the Secretary of State has the power to effectively close down the countryside. The fact that he hasn't indicates that there is no need. What is required is for people not to mingle, hence the closure of some car parks. A solitary family having a walk poses little risk. A hoard at a beauty spot is a greater threat.
 
So what's wrong with you carrying their bikes through this entrance?
A picture can say a thousand words.


This entrance is far easier.


why not walk instead of using a cycle?
The return walk is 50 minutes and involves crossing the A20 and South Circular. While the A20 has pedestrian lights, the ones on the South Circular involve a lengthy detour.

Are you not merely making excuses?
Perhaps, but I'd say they are reasons. And its safe.

I'd quite like to take Mrs B off for our usual Wednesday afternoon picnic in the countryside. We always park somewhere remote and don't usually see anyone else. However, I won't be doing that for some time as it wouldn't be right. Every five minutes we are being reminded by the Government to stay at home and to take excersise once a day as near to where we live as possible. The message is clear and made for an accute life or death reason. Why don't we all just comply and stop trying to test the limits.
I believe that everything I have done to date are well within the government guidance. It is not the government that are saying you cannot drive to exercise, the people saying that are simply misinterpreting the government guidance.
 
Last edited:
A massive backlash to Derbyshire Police on their Twitter feed after they posted the drone footage. We travelled 9miles yesterday to a different part of the Forest and it was wonderful to be out in the dusk with the dogs. Great for the dogs and for us.

Not here in Rural Derbyshire - just the opposite. And yesterday when the Chief Constable was on Radio 2 and explained himself the majority of people were supportive. He also explained the misinformation on the Blue Lagoon (it is one of the most dangerous / toxic waters in Europe and is effectively Bleach plus they dye it every year ) and went onto to explain how places the week before were totally over ran by visitors ignoring the guidelines and stripping the local shops of all their supplies and potentially impacting the NHS and spreading their germs to a locally isolated and largely elderly communities. Indeed, just this week a ambulance had to make its way up an extensive dirt track to rescue a visitor who broke her ankle .

By the way Derbyshire police haven't fined anybody including a large group near the Snake Pass enjoying a picnic and shisha that came from Manchester, Sheffield and Ipswich.

In terms of travelling 9 miles - really? The guidelines don't say you have a right to or should travel to a picturesque place to do your exercise. Instead they say when doing any of the 4 things permitted you should minimize time spent outside of the home (see Government Guidance below) . If you drive to exercise you haven't really minimised anything as you could probably have done it immediately outside your house or, at the very least, the first open space you came to. Given this local would defined as very local as most people or within a few miles of an open space.

"Staying at home
You should only leave the house for very limited purposes:
  • shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible.
  • one form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle - alone or with members of your household.
  • any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.
  • travelling for work purposes, but only where you cannot work from home
These reasons are exceptions - even when doing these activities, you should be minimising time spent outside of the home "

I get it they use the word should (not must) but if everybody took your view (to pick and choose and look for loopholes) rather than complying with the spirit of the guidelines, the guidelines would have no impact whatsoever and we would be back to the same situation a few weeks ago.

Whilst the guidelines above use the word should when you look the guidelines for the use of open spaces they make it clear that you should stay local where possible - i.e use open spaces near to your home and do not travel unnecessarily. Arguably getting in a car to go anywhere for exercise is unnecessary as you could do it immediately upon leaving home if walking (there isn't even much traffic on the roads at the moment) or at the first green space you come to, which in most cases, wouldn't be more than a few miles from your home.

"Coronavirus – Guidance on access to green spaces

stay local
and use open spaces near to your home where possible – do not travel unnecessarily "


Anyway thank god the majority of people are complying with the guidelines and not treating it as some a la carte menu - whereby they pick and choose what items they want to comply with . If they did we would be in serious bother
 
Last edited:
A picture can say a thousand words.


This entrance is far easier.



The return walk is 50 minutes and involves crossing the A20 and South Circular. While the A20 has pedestrian lights, the ones on the South Circular involve a lengthy detour.


Perhaps, but I'd say they are reasons. And its safe.


I believe that everything I have done to date are well within the government guidance. It is not the government that are saying you cannot drive to exercise, the people saying that are simply misinterpreting the government guidance.
Tom, you're being pedantic, if this is the park that you linked to only a few doors away from home then i can see no reason not to visit the park and have a good run around. Most people would love a green space that close to the house, but you have to drive to a different one because of a restricted entrance, come on.
From the Gov website:
Please use the following guidance in order to stay safe:
  • stay local and use open spaces near to your home where possible – do not travel unnecessarily
  • you should only go outside alone or with members of your own household
  • keep at least 2 metres apart from anyone outside your household at all times
  • gatherings of more than two in parks or other public spaces have been banned and the police will enforce this
  • if you have a garden, make use of the space for exercise and fresh air
  • take hygiene precautions when you are outside, and wash your hands as soon as you are back indoors
 
Not here in Rural Derbyshire - just the opposite.
No surprise there. If I had a wilderness on my doorstep I too might interpret (or misinterpret) the guidance differently. What is not open to interpretation (or misinterpretation) are the regulations.

If the government felt a necessity to close public rights of way in the countryside they would have done so.

If they wanted to prohibit (or even discourage) driving to a place to exercise they would have been explicit. All it would take is a single line of a few words. “You must not drive to a place to exercise.” or “you should not drive to a place for exercise.” would suffice.
 
No surprise there. If I had a wilderness on my doorstep I too might interpret (or misinterpret) the guidance differently. What is not open to interpretation (or misinterpretation) are the regulations.

If the government felt a necessity to close public rights of way in the countryside they would have done so.

If they wanted to prohibit (or even discourage) driving to a place to exercise they would have been explicit. All it would take is a single line of a few words. “You must not drive to a place to exercise.” or “you should not drive to a place for exercise.” would suffice.

Tom

Really, I like a lot of what you write but this I cannot agree with.

The difference is a government acting authoritarian and a government seeking popular support for an unpopular but unavoidable measure. Are you really saying that you cannot be trusted to act as a responsible adult and therefore need to be told what to do?
 
Not here in Rural Derbyshire - just the opposite. And yesterday when the Chief Constable was on Radio 2 and explained himself the majority of people were supportive. He also explained the misinformation on the Blue Lagoon (it is one of the most dangerous / toxic waters in Europe and is effectively Bleach plus they dye it every year ) and went onto to explain how places the week before were totally over ran by visitors ignoring the guidelines and stripping the local shops of all their supplies and potentially impacting the NHS and spreading their germs to a locally isolated and largely elderly communities. Indeed, just this week a ambulance had to make its way up an extensive dirt track to rescue a visitor who broke her ankle .

By the way Derbyshire police haven't fined anybody including a large group near the Snake Pass enjoying a picnic and shisha that came from Manchester, Sheffield and Ipswich.

In terms of travelling 9 miles - really? The guidelines don't say you have a right to or should travel to a picturesque place to do your exercise. Instead they say when doing any of the 4 things permitted you should minimize time spent outside of the home (see Government Guidance below) . If you drive to exercise you haven't really minimised anything as you could probably have done it immediately outside your house or, at the very least, the first open space you came to. Given this local would defined as very local as most people or within a few miles of an open space.

"Staying at home
You should only leave the house for very limited purposes:
  • shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible.
  • one form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle - alone or with members of your household.
  • any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.
  • travelling for work purposes, but only where you cannot work from home
These reasons are exceptions - even when doing these activities, you should be minimising time spent outside of the home "

I get it they use the word should (not must) but if everybody took your view (to pick and choose and look for loopholes) rather than complying with the spirit of the guidelines, the guidelines would have no impact whatsoever and we would be back to the same situation a few weeks ago.

Whilst the guidelines above use the word should when you look the guidelines for the use of open spaces they make it clear that you should stay local where possible - i.e use open spaces near to your home and do not travel unnecessarily. Arguably getting in a car to go anywhere for exercise is unnecessary as you could do it immediately upon leaving home if walking (there isn't even much traffic on the roads at the moment) or at the first green space you come to, which in most cases, wouldn't be more than a few miles from your home.

"Coronavirus – Guidance on access to green spaces

stay local
and use open spaces near to your home where possible – do not travel unnecessarily "


Anyway thank god the majority of people are complying with the guidelines and not treating it as some a la carte menu - whereby they pick and choose what items they want to comply with . If they did we would be in serious bother
Not here in Rural Derbyshire - just the opposite. And yesterday when the Chief Constable was on Radio 2 and explained himself the majority of people were supportive. He also explained the misinformation on the Blue Lagoon (it is one of the most dangerous / toxic waters in Europe and is effectively Bleach plus they dye it every year ) and went onto to explain how places the week before were totally over ran by visitors ignoring the guidelines and stripping the local shops of all their supplies and potentially impacting the NHS and spreading their germs to a locally isolated and largely elderly communities. Indeed, just this week a ambulance had to make its way up an extensive dirt track to rescue a visitor who broke her ankle .

By the way Derbyshire police haven't fined anybody including a large group near the Snake Pass enjoying a picnic and shisha that came from Manchester, Sheffield and Ipswich.

In terms of travelling 9 miles - really? The guidelines don't say you have a right to or should travel to a picturesque place to do your exercise. Instead they say when doing any of the 4 things permitted you should minimize time spent outside of the home (see Government Guidance below) . If you drive to exercise you haven't really minimised anything as you could probably have done it immediately outside your house or, at the very least, the first open space you came to. Given this local would defined as very local as most people or within a few miles of an open space.

"Staying at home
You should only leave the house for very limited purposes:
  • shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible.
  • one form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle - alone or with members of your household.
  • any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person.
  • travelling for work purposes, but only where you cannot work from home
These reasons are exceptions - even when doing these activities, you should be minimising time spent outside of the home "

I get it they use the word should (not must) but if everybody took your view (to pick and choose and look for loopholes) rather than complying with the spirit of the guidelines, the guidelines would have no impact whatsoever and we would be back to the same situation a few weeks ago.

Whilst the guidelines above use the word should when you look the guidelines for the use of open spaces they make it clear that you should stay local where possible - i.e use open spaces near to your home and do not travel unnecessarily. Arguably getting in a car to go anywhere for exercise is unnecessary as you could do it immediately upon leaving home if walking (there isn't even much traffic on the roads at the moment) or at the first green space you come to, which in most cases, wouldn't be more than a few miles from your home.

"Coronavirus – Guidance on access to green spaces

stay local
and use open spaces near to your home where possible – do not travel unnecessarily "


Anyway thank god the majority of people are complying with the guidelines and not treating it as some a la carte menu - whereby they pick and choose what items they want to comply with . If they did we would be in serious bother

Have a look at the Twitter feed rather than the b*******s being stated. It's hilarious.

And I totally disagree with you. I always walk in the forest as its local to me. My first green space is the area in the estate which says no dogs allowed on the grass. Oops not sure that meets the definition under the government guidance....... what am I suppose to do?

Now the 3 guys kicking a football on the trail in the New Forest...... debatable. No houses in their direction of travel for miles.
 
Tom, you're being pedantic, if this is the park that you linked to only a few doors away from home then i can see no reason not to visit the park and have a good run around. Most people would love a green space that close to the house, but you have to drive to a different one because of a restricted entrance, come on.
We do use both parks, and the reasons are more complex than you suggest.

The risks with spreading or contracting Coronavirus are from close contact or touching surfaces - especially hard smooth surfaces. It is close to impossible to access Horn park with bikes without touching hard smooth surfaces.

Horn Park has just one distinct path around it. Avoiding people can be difficult.

Sutcliffe Park is landscaped to capture flood water from the River Quaggy. It has a whole network of footpaths, essentially three concentric circles. It is far easier in Sutcliffe Park to maintain separation.

Getting in the van on our driveway and driving 5 minutes then parking outside Sutcliffe Park poses no discernible risk of contact with hard surfaces others may touch or may have touched.
 
We do use both parks, and the reasons are more complex than you suggest.

The risks with spreading or contracting Coronavirus are from close contact or touching surfaces - especially hard smooth surfaces. It is close to impossible to access Horn park with bikes without touching hard smooth surfaces.

Horn Park has just one distinct path around it. Avoiding people can be difficult.

Sutcliffe Park is landscaped to capture flood water from the River Quaggy. It has a whole network of footpaths, essentially three concentric circles. It is far easier in Sutcliffe Park to maintain separation.

Getting in the van on our driveway and driving 5 minutes then parking outside Sutcliffe Park poses no discernible risk of contact with hard surfaces others may touch or may have touched.
I was suggesting leaving the bikes and walking to the local park, go off the path and let the boys tire themselves out running on the grass if possible. :thumb
 

VW California Club

Back
Top