France in August?

[bob_summers]

View attachment 75597
Few years ago, sunny one minute...huge storm the next!

That’s a foreboding looking storm. Where is that? Hossegor?

 

[Ch1pbutty]

That’s a foreboding looking storm. Where is that? Hossegor?

Further north. Montalivet (but not as far north as the nudist colony!)

 

[Ladymuck]

Back in January we booked to go to France this August and I also booked a plan B which is a campsite in Oxfordshire.

If we can get back to relatively unrestricted freedom in the UK this summer I will happily forfeit a holiday abroad.

 

[andyinluton]

And the Spanish Flu is a great example of this.

or German Measles

 

[Ladymuck]

However if there is some half hearted attempt to restrict people entering the UK and we lose any freedom again this summer as a result, along with forfeiting holidays abroad, I am going to be mightily peeved off.

 

[Velma's Dad]

or German Measles

Syphilis was called “the French disease” by the English and Germans, “the Spanish pox” by the French, and “the Polish disease” by the Russians.

 

[Amarillo]

The so called Kent variant that some in the EU are blaming the UK for is a good example. Is it a councidence that Kent is the port of entry for hundreds of EU lorry drivers every day. The Kent variant was quite possibly introduced to Kent from outside the UK and then exported back to the EU?

The Chinese Government put forward a very similar argument when Donald Trump referred to it as the Chinese or Wuhan Virus.

Oxford Vaccine
Wuhan Virus
Variant of Kent (or Kentish Variant)

They are all descriptions which people understand and describe where it was first discovered.

 

[Phase one]

The Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak LINeages tool for naming Covid 19 variants is known as PANGOLIN

Unfair to the poor pangolin!


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And as for naming a cyst after chocolate....


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[soulstyledevon]

I've basked in Basque rain for many years!

It's confluence of so many Atlantic weather systems make it a warmer but just as wet and unpredictable United Kingdom.

Not helped by the extreme and dynamic mountain weather patterns.
But what a stunning area.
Skiing in the morning and a drive down the mountain for an evening sunset surf...
Beautiful part of the world

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Today’s Times front page. Whitty and Ferguson seem to agree.

 

[bob_summers]

Meanwhile in Spain, holidaying Germans arriving by road this Easter are allowed to enter without PCR. Meanwhile I can’t leave my province to visit relatives, PCR or not.
I can understand the hospitality and leisure industries are desperate to work, I just hope this doesn’t lead to summer-long shutdowns as we fight off new strains…

 

[GrahamB]

I take it that Sidepod is being provocative!

It is worth pausing and reflecting, especially today when we remember the dead.

Remember being counted as a “Covid death” has happened to 2.74 million people during the last 12 months.

The pandemic has devastated many millions of families who have lost loved ones, and many others have lost friends and work colleagues.

Covid-19 has brutally exposed the health inequalities that exist in our own country and I hope these inequalities will be addressed in the recovery.

Those who have been most affected have been the disadvantaged, the poor, black and ethnic minorities, the vulnerable and certain occupations including health care and other front line workers.

Let us remember them today and not get hung up on precisely how we count them.


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Spot on - very well said.

 

[GrahamB]

‘It's a pity these variants are named/referred to by the country they are found in rather than a purely scientic nomenclature as we do with Influenza.’

Totally agree WG, it leafs to very unhelpful finger pointing.

The so called Kent variant that some in the EU are blaming the UK for is a good example. Is it a councidence that Kent is the port of entry for hundreds of EU lorry drivers every day. The Kent variant was quite possibly introduced to Kent from outside the UK and then exported back to the EU?

I agree also. Equally unhelful is any sort of triumphalism over being slightly ahead if the game on vaccine roll out. Until the rest of the world catches up we are all at risk and travel restrictions will stay in place. Its a global pandemic which requires joined up global response. And we can’t claim to have our own house in order when large swathes of UK healthcare workers are refusing the vaccine. There is massive disinformation still circulating on FaceBook etc where unfortunately a lot of people get their opinion forming influences.

 

[sidepod]

Spot on - very well said.

Perfectly straight forward and simple question. Accusations of provocation are not necessary. If you don't know the answer to my question then just say so.

There is no shortage of number/graphs/slides/stats etc. All I want to know is how many have died from purely 100% COVID.?

 

[Dr-Snickers]

Perfectly straight forward and simple question. Accusations of provocation are not necessary. If you don't know the answer to my question then just say so.

There is no shortage of number/graphs/slides/stats etc. All I want to know is how many have died from purely 100%

I’m not sure that there are many causes of death that are 100% independent of the other conditions a person has; trauma being the main one. I don’t believe that data will exist and I don’t know how you could analyse the data we do have to counter all the other variables.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Perfectly straight forward and simple question. Accusations of provocation are not necessary. If you don't know the answer to my question then just say so.

There is no shortage of number/graphs/slides/stats etc. All I want to know is how many have died from purely 100% COVID.?

I think that’s often not possible to tell, even pre COVID. I’m not sure it’s always possible to say exactly what killed someone. In the elderly I’m sure it’s even more difficult to say with 100% certainty. What’s on a death certificate is like a diagnosis.
Obviously some people get hit by a bus.

 

[soulstyledevon]

I’m not sure that there are many causes of death that are 100% independent of the other conditions a person has; trauma being the main one. I don’t believe that data will exist and I don’t know how you could analyse the data we do have to counter all the other variables.

Agree.
I wonder, if a plane crashes with numerous dead and some survivors, how many died of heart failure or stroke before the crash, but death is declared as an aviation incident...

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Well, UK campsite booked this morning.
Bye bye croissants, swimming, crepes, Normandy cider.
I think there’s a pub with a beer garden nearby so I’ll get through somehow.

 

[soulstyledevon]

Well, UK campsite booked this morning.
Bye bye croissants, swimming, crepes, Normandy cider.
I think there’s a pub with a beer garden nearby so I’ll get through somehow.

At least you won’t need to pack a pair of budgie smugglers this year...

 

[Dr-Snickers]

At least you won’t need to pack a pair of budgie smugglers this year...

...apparently they are coming back in to fashion

 

[66tim99]

...apparently they are coming back in to fashion

Not according to the laughter I got from my family last time I shoe-horned a pair on to enter a piscine

 

[GrahamB]

Is it not a case of how the death is reported?
How many people in the UK have died of 100% COVID, nothing else, no underlying conditions, purely COVID?

Perfectly straight forward and simple question. Accusations of provocation are not necessary. If you don't know the answer to my question then just say so.

There is no shortage of number/graphs/slides/stats etc. All I want to know is how many have died from purely 100% COVID.?

I personally wasn't accusing anyone of being provocative but I agreed with the sentiment of reflection on the significant number of premature deaths as a result of the pandemic and the exposure of health inequalities. It is probably not possible to know the answer to your question of who died ‘purely from Covid’. In my view its not really relevant. What we can do is triangulate the evidence of data like excess deaths, hospital admissions, deaths in care homes, death certificates where Covid was identified, and the ratio of deaths/infections, to know that Covid-19 is a vicious disease from a novel virus running through the population with high mortality in vulnerable groups. The “being hit by a bus and dying with Covid” rhetoric is a daft argument and such isolated instances are not statistically significant.

 

[GrannyJen]

Perfectly straight forward and simple question. Accusations of provocation are not necessary. If you don't know the answer to my question then just say so.

There is no shortage of number/graphs/slides/stats etc. All I want to know is how many have died from purely 100% COVID.?

I doubt that anyone can answer that without the impossible task of carrying out a detailed autopsy on every single one of the 100,000 plus people registered as having died whilst being infected with Covid in the previous 28 days.

The major complication of covid is the overactive immune response that could well trigger failure of organs already in some stage of failure anyway so how much is due to covid and how much due to what would have happened in the next few months anyway will be almost impossible to assess.

All one can argue is that excess deaths and covid-related deaths appear to be within the same ballpark of each other and given also that those shielding from Covid have also by default been shielding from that other seasonal killer called influenza then any excess deaths occurring would be a less than normal event.

 

[T6 CFO]

Last time I saw the figures together it was something like 146k covid and 111k excess deaths.

IF we don’t get a new wave you would expect the figure of excess deaths to fall as it’s on a 5 year average.

Excess deaths is a better indicator as over time it will smooth out the deaths currently attributed to covid in for example a hospice.

I suspect a long time down the road someone will be doing statistics on life years lost.

The single biggest anomaly I’ve seen is the disparity in excess deaths and reported COVID deaths in Russia.




Mike

 

[andyinluton]

Last time I saw the figures together it was something like 146k covid and 111k excess deaths.

IF we don’t get a new wave you would expect the figure of excess deaths to fall as it’s on a 5 year average.

Excess deaths is a better indicator as over time it will smooth out the deaths currently attributed to covid in for example a hospice.

I suspect a long time down the road someone will be doing statistics on life years lost.

The single biggest anomaly I’ve seen is the disparity in excess deaths and reported COVID deaths in Russia.




Mike

We've got to be careful with the 5 year average going forward as the 5 years now includes a year of covid. would be better off calling it the 5 years 2014-2019

I would hope the excess deaths will get to a negative figure as surely a large number of the frail people that would normally have died this year died last year.