France in August?

[Wongo]

I think it’s looking unlikely we’re going tbh. But 16 weeks is a fair while. I dunno. I live for those 2 weeks every year. Today I’ve just put new bowls in the van and I’m looking for a new wok! It was such a fantastic release when we went last summer.

16 weeks ago no one had a vaccine shot, Once supply and organisation imprives

 

[bob_summers]

20km from the French/Spanish border here. The hotels in town were full of French visitors this weekend, no doubt Easter will be the same. It beggars belief - we’ve been confined to the province and even immediate city limits for months now, 14 day incidence is again on the climb, yet the border is open for the French to come and go. So obviously the tourist dollar trumps all - summer travel is on the table if your conscience is good with it.

 

[Borris]

Do you actually think the French will forego their annual lemming pilgrimage to the South so they can all sit on top of each other on the Cote d'Azure. Everything will be as normal come July/August. They did it last year.

All the more reason for not going then!

 

[Ch1pbutty]

We are planning a stress free summer, not going abroad!

Think we will stay local now...
UK is looking to be one huge traffic jam this summer given that alot of campsites are fully booked.

 

[sidepod]

All the more reason for not going then!

Absolutely. Wouldn't set foot in the place during August. September is a different story.

 

[jts46]

3rd wave of covid is arriving soon

 

[B J G]

3rd wave of covid is arriving soon

France already in it, moving patients about for Hospital beds.

seems worry now is that with this building infection rate (not just in France) another strain will develop and we won't be permitted out of UK incase we bring it back for a 4th wave.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

20km from the French/Spanish border here. The hotels in town were full of French visitors this weekend, no doubt Easter will be the same. It beggars belief - we’ve been confined to the province and even immediate city limits for months now, 14 day incidence is again on the climb, yet the border is open for the French to come and go. So obviously the tourist dollar trumps all - summer travel is on the table if your conscience is good with it.

If we do decide to use our ferry to Santander we will possibly go to the campsite at the top of the hill above San Sebastián, enjoy some pintxos outside and then go here for a week.

Hipcamp

coolcamping.com

I was reading today that when they announced the Paris lockdown there were traffic jams 200 miles long from people fleeing the restrictions.

 

[bob_summers]

Know that site well @Lambeth Cali , pass it on my runs - what's it like to stay on?

Same happened in Madrid btw, mass exodus of people heading for their 2nd homes with fake travel justifications.

 

[Wildcamper]

Think we will stay local now...
UK is looking to be one huge traffic jam this summer given that alot of campsites are fully booked.

All our trips, if allowed, booked for April, May, early June then Sept and Oct. High summer staying at home - may be mid week day trips if it's raining!

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Know that site well @Lambeth Cali , pass it on my runs - what's it like to stay on?

Same happened in Madrid btw, mass exodus of people heading for their 2nd homes with fake travel justifications.

I think we stayed there just two nights. It’s quite an urban site so smallish pitches. I think we liked it, easy bus ride into town and then it has a great pool that nobody seemed to be aware of on the roof.

 

[B J G]

If we do decide to use our ferry to Santander we will possibly go to the campsite at the top of the hill above San Sebastián, enjoy some pintxos outside and then go here for a week.

Hipcamp

coolcamping.com

I was reading today that when they announced the Paris lockdown there were traffic jams 200 miles long from people fleeing the restrictions.

Much the same as London pre Xmas.

 

[GrannyJen]

Personally,

and only my personal opinion....

I think it would be extremely premature and overly optimistic to be thinking of any travel to anywhere outside of the UK before 2022 earliest. You might get out, but anything could happen and getting back in could be problematic.

Frankly I would be delirious with happiness just to be able to visit my local pub

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Part of the issue that politicians don’t get (or politically cannot articulate) is that if you’re hoping to go anywhere, then you better well have booked now, because if you attempt to find anywhere the day after restrictions are eased you’ll find there are no places available. The other point is that I’m not really booking a holiday as much as moving my 2020 ferry booking to 2021 so as not to lose it.
If things today looked more rosy en France, I would be currently booking the best sites (all with cancellation policies) so we didn’t end up with nothing. We have a plan B and a UK plan C. If travel is allowed then I would like to have options. School holidays without actual holidays would be long and grim.
I think it’s looking like a 20% chance we’ll get to head abroad but I’m 100% certain I want to have options available and I would probably have estimated a 20% chance last March and to my surprise we got a great two weeks come August.

 

[Phase one]

The EU have undoubtedly been poor in their vaccination programme and EU citizens are sadly facing a further surge and having to deal with the much more transmissible and slightly more lethal “Kent” variant - Remember where we ended up with that one in January!

Granny Jen may not be too worried by variants at the moment but I am very concerned - they may throw overboard a portion of the undoubted gains of the NHS Vaccination programme.

As regards EU travel - not only are the “South African” and “Brazil” variants more frequent in the EU, the sequencing programmes in the EU are very poor, and the EU have very little hope of being able to respond to variants in a timely way.

The South African variant currently appears under control in the UK, being found in just 0.17% of the 158,452 sequenced viruses since it was identified.

In parts of the EU the situation is already rather worrying with figures showing rates of 4.26% in 6,314 sequenced in France, 1.31% in 24,609 in Germany and 0.21% in 5,628 in Italy.

The lack of adequate sequencing effort in the EU is a major weakness. The possibility of established community transmission of these further variants within Europe, (if it hasn’t already occurred,) is very real.

If the EU are not monitoring variants effectively how on earth can they ever hope to control them?

Similarly, the the so-called Brazil variant seems under control in the UK with only six (0.01%) cases in 42,481 sequences.

It too is notably more prevalent in the EU with 2.58% of sequences in Italy, 0.25% in France and 0.19% in Germany.

The present rising number of cases in the EU should not create any sense of UK smugness; it should be a real concern to us.

When coupled with their slow vaccination programme and inadequate sequencing effort the UK should expect to see more new variant cases entering the UK especially if we import these new variants in much larger numbers over the summer!

It is in our own interest that cases are controlled within the EU through lockdowns and an accelerated vaccination programme and we must do our level best not to import these further variants in larger numbers since we need to prevent community transmission becoming established here.

Politicians in the EU and UK who are presently busy appealing to nationalistic sentiments should grow up! - they need to calmly and collectively focus on solving the problem and real risks.

Case control and variant control and import controls are important since the SA and Brazil variants have the potential to undermine the vaccination programme and continuing large case numbers in the EU will speed the development of further variants.

Real world clinical data for effectiveness of available vaccines against variants is presently limited because many of the initial trials were done before the variants emerged.

We had some in vitro antibody neutralisation assay data earlier, but extrapolation to a clinical setting is limited and some of our widely used vaccines may not be as effective as we had hoped for.

Real world clinical efficacy data against variants is now emerging.

It is clear both the AZ and Pfizer vaccines are effective against the Kent variant- their effectiveness is clear from the UK vaccination programme - see Oliver Johnson on Twitter for nice visuals and explanation.

For the AZ vaccine, a trial has been carried out in South Africa where 93% of cases were the B.1.351 (South Africa) variant. The results were published last week (NEJM). The number of cases was relatively small and therefore confidence intervals on efficacy are wide, but an AZ vaccine efficacy of just 10.6% (compared with 75.4% for non-B.1.351 strains) looks pretty worrying if it got established here.

All is not lost as there looks to be more promising data against the SA variant for the single shot Jansson vaccine (FDA data) - so it maybe an autumn “boost” if we get into a mess with the SA variant

The Brazil variant we need to watch closely.

I would not be looking at EU travel this year. I would echo the CMO message that we continue to take sensible preventive measures as we roll out vaccines as quickly as we can and as we very cautiously loosen restrictions.

We need to ignore the “lockdown sceptics” and the new “unlock faster brigade”

Whilst the UK vaccination programme is yielding major benefits and currently saving many lives (including my 97 year old mother who has just had covid without developing significant symptoms (thank you AZ vaccine!), we are still in a very vulnerable stage.

Remember, we imported our first wave mainly from Europe not China. Let’s not import our 3rd wave of SA and Brazil
Variants this summer.

Having seen the heroic response of NHS colleagues during the last 12 months who are now totally burnt out, we need to give them a break ( and pay rise) and avoid another surge in hospitalisations, long covid cases and deaths. Stay in the UK, get a Vaccine when called and continue to use those prevention steps to minimise virus spread.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[LemonDrop]

The EU have undoubtedly been poor in their vaccination programme and EU citizens are sadly facing a further surge and having to deal with the much more transmissible and slightly more lethal “Kent” variant - Remember where we ended up with that one in January!

Granny Jen may not be too worried by variants at the moment but I am very concerned - they may throw overboard a portion of the undoubted gains of the NHS Vaccination programme.

As regards EU travel - not only are the “South African” and “Brazil” variants more frequent in the EU, the sequencing programmes in the EU are very poor, and the EU have very little hope of being able to respond to variants in a timely way.

The South African variant currently appears under control in the UK, being found in just 0.17% of the 158,452 sequenced viruses since it was identified.

In parts of the EU the situation is already rather worrying with figures showing rates of 4.26% in 6,314 sequenced in France, 1.31% in 24,609 in Germany and 0.21% in 5,628 in Italy.

The lack of adequate sequencing effort in the EU is a major weakness. The possibility of established community transmission of these further variants within Europe, (if it hasn’t already occurred,) is very real.

If the EU are not monitoring variants effectively how on earth can they ever hope to control them?

Similarly, the the so-called Brazil variant seems under control in the UK with only six (0.01%) cases in 42,481 sequences.

It too is notably more prevalent in the EU with 2.58% of sequences in Italy, 0.25% in France and 0.19% in Germany.

The present rising number of cases in the EU should not create any sense of UK smugness; it should be a real concern to us.

When coupled with their slow vaccination programme and inadequate sequencing effort the UK should expect to see more new variant cases entering the UK especially if we import these new variants in much larger numbers over the summer!

It is in our own interest that cases are controlled within the EU through lockdowns and an accelerated vaccination programme and we must do our level best not to import these further variants in larger numbers since we need to prevent community transmission becoming established here.

Politicians in the EU and UK who are presently busy appealing to nationalistic sentiments should grow up! - they need to calmly and collectively focus on solving the problem and real risks.

Case control and variant control and import controls are important since the SA and Brazil variants have the potential to undermine the vaccination programme and continuing large case numbers in the EU will speed the development of further variants.

Real world clinical data for effectiveness of available vaccines against variants is presently limited because many of the initial trials were done before the variants emerged.

We had some in vitro antibody neutralisation assay data earlier, but extrapolation to a clinical setting is limited and some of our widely used vaccines may not be as effective as we had hoped for.

Real world clinical efficacy data against variants is now emerging.

It is clear both the AZ and Pfizer vaccines are effective against the Kent variant- their effectiveness is clear from the UK vaccination programme - see Oliver Johnson on Twitter for nice visuals and explanation.

For the AZ vaccine, a trial has been carried out in South Africa where 93% of cases were the B.1.351 (South Africa) variant. The results were published last week (NEJM). The number of cases was relatively small and therefore confidence intervals on efficacy are wide, but an AZ vaccine efficacy of just 10.6% (compared with 75.4% for non-B.1.351 strains) looks pretty worrying if it got established here.

All is not lost as there looks to be more promising data against the SA variant for the single shot Jansson vaccine (FDA data) - so it maybe an autumn “boost” if we get into a mess with the SA variant

The Brazil variant we need to watch closely.

I would not be looking at EU travel this year. I would echo the CMO message that we continue to take sensible preventive measures as we roll out vaccines as quickly as we can and as we very cautiously loosen restrictions.

We need to ignore the “lockdown sceptics” and the new “unlock faster brigade”

Whilst the UK vaccination programme is yielding major benefits and currently saving many lives (including my 97 year old mother who has just had covid without developing significant symptoms (thank you AZ vaccine!), we are still in a very vulnerable stage.

Remember, we imported our first wave mainly from Europe not China. Let’s not import our 3rd wave of SA and Brazil
Variants this summer.

Having seen the heroic response of NHS colleagues during the last 12 months who are now totally burnt out, we need to give them a break ( and pay rise) and avoid another surge in hospitalisations, long covid cases and deaths. Stay in the UK, get a Vaccine when called and continue to use those prevention steps to minimise virus spread.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What a brilliant post.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

A very persuasive argument. It’ll be interesting what the government, and Whitty, will allow.
I think I read that at current rates France will take 2 years to vaccinate their adult population. There’s a real hesitancy there. Not improved by the AZ fiasco. That is a lot of staycationing.

 

[Jester]

A very persuasive argument. It’ll be interesting what the government, and Whitty, will allow.
I think I read that at current rates France will take 2 years to vaccinate their adult population. There’s a real hesitancy there. Not improved by the AZ fiasco. That is a lot of staycationing.

Seems like the Government will fine you £5000 for unnecessary travel. Can you not see the potential for you and your family contracting the virus then passing on to more vulnerable relatives and friends.
Really, what more do you need to know.

 

[Phase one]

One final point is that importation of variants works in reverse too! - remember we exported the “Kent” variant which is now taking off in Europe and USA etc and the proportions of this highly transmissible variant are rising both in Europe and places like Florida.

The difficulty in controlling this variant with half hearted and regional restrictions have already been well demonstrated in the UK.

It has taken us a national lockdown aided by rapid vaccination to achieve control and I am amazed that France are continuing with a tried and failed “regional” approach to the Kent variant but I guess they are hoping an accelerated vaccination programme might rescue them - we shall see.

Given their current approach do not be surprised in a few months (when you want to go to France) if more restrictions or wider lockdowns are in place - just another another reason to stay local this year

The anti-vaccine and anti control stance, particularly in France will cost many thousands of lives and sadly it will probably place the health system under severe strain in the next few months even if just in cities but it seems some politicians have learned nothing from the horrors of Italy in the first wave and our NHS capacity difficulties in January

Macron and others have unfortunately fuelled the anti vaccine, anti control faction and now to try to cover their own incompetence they are now setting about blaming others (AZ, UK etc).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[T6 CFO]

One final point is that importation of variants works in reverse too! - remember we exported the “Kent” variant which is now taking off in Europe and USA etc and the proportions of this highly transmissible variant are rising both in Europe and places like Florida.

The difficulty in controlling this variant with half hearted and regional restrictions have already been well demonstrated in the UK.

It has taken us a national lockdown aided by rapid vaccination to achieve control and I am amazed that France are continuing with a tried and failed “regional” approach to the Kent variant but I guess they are hoping an accelerated vaccination programme might rescue them - we shall see.

Given their current approach do not be surprised in a few months (when you want to go to France) if more restrictions or wider lockdowns are in place - just another another reason to stay local this year

The anti-vaccine and anti control stance, particularly in France will cost many thousands of lives and sadly it will probably place the health system under severe strain in the next few months even if just in cities but it seems some politicians have learned nothing from the horrors of Italy in the first wave and our NHS capacity difficulties in January

Macron and others have unfortunately fuelled the anti vaccine, anti control faction and now to try to cover their own incompetence they are now setting about blaming others (AZ, UK etc).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We have relatives in Brittany who have dual citizenship and are both just into their 70’s.
There explanation of how they have tried to get vaccinated and failed is a terrible indictment of the system, or lack of it, in place.
They confirmed there is a strong anti Vax culture.
They are locked down tight due to an influx from Paris.


Mike

 

[Wildcamper]

It seems certain now that Covid is not going to go away. As Covid is a coronavirus, as is the influenza virus, it will continue to mutate. It will not be long before current vaccines will not work. This is the situation with the influenza virus where we all accept that we need a new vaccination every year to deal with the latest strain. It is almost certain that Covid is heading the same way. Currently world Governments are fire fighting to try to avert a meltdown, they have little choice. However, I hope somewhere there is coordinated (please I so hope so) on how to cope with new Covid strains year on year. As I said, it is not going away. We have to learn to live with it.

 

[T6 CFO]

It seems certain now that Covid is not going to go away. As Covid is a coronavirus, as is the influenza virus, it will continue to mutate. It will not be long before current vaccines will not work. This is the situation with the influenza virus where we all accept that we need a new vaccination every year to deal with the latest strain. It is almost certain that Covid is heading the same way. Currently world Governments are fire fighting to try to avert a meltdown, they have little choice. However, I hope somewhere there is coordinated (please I so hope so) on how to cope with new Covid strains year on year. As I said, it is not going away. We have to learn to live with it.

The experts flanking Boris have repeatedly said the same.


Mike

 

[soulstyledevon]

We could learn a lot from South Korea.
Can you believe a population of 52m and only 1600 deaths...
I’m willing to give the state some control (temporary) if it means we can reduce the impact of Covid.

Covid: The countries that nailed it, and what we can learn from them

A year into the pandemic, we look at countries that have had some success in tackling the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[WelshGas]

It seems certain now that Covid is not going to go away. As Covid is a coronavirus, as is the influenza virus, it will continue to mutate. It will not be long before current vaccines will not work. This is the situation with the influenza virus where we all accept that we need a new vaccination every year to deal with the latest strain. It is almost certain that Covid is heading the same way. Currently world Governments are fire fighting to try to avert a meltdown, they have little choice. However, I hope somewhere there is coordinated (please I so hope so) on how to cope with new Covid strains year on year. As I said, it is not going away. We have to learn to live with it.

Increasingly it looks as if the UK could lead on the coordination front.
A. We do more Genomic sequencing than many other countries.
B. We have the Oxford team and the AZ vaccine, relatively cheap and easily transported worldwide.
C. We produce the Vaccine and are ramping up production with new facilities.
D. The UK population are not as Vaccine adverse as in many other countries.
Other vaccines may become available as time goes by as well.
We are also quit good at vaccinating for influenza on an annual basis already.
It's a pity these variants are named/referred to by the country they are found in rather than a purely scientic nomenclature as we do with Influenza.

 

[WelshGas]

We could learn a lot from South Korea.
Can you believe a population of 52m and only 1600 deaths...
I’m willing to give the state some control (temporary) if it means we can reduce the impact of Covid.

Covid: The countries that nailed it, and what we can learn from them

A year into the pandemic, we look at countries that have had some success in tackling the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Government control is not temporary though, also they don't seem to have any Anti-lockdown protests and the population follow government edicts religiously. I can't see that happening in the UK or any western country. It is just not in our culture to do so.