Diesel ban 2030

[clarinetbcn]

Don’t expect electric cars to save the planet
Banning petrol and diesel vehicles would deliver only minor emissions savings at a vast cost to consumers

Bjorn Lomborg
View attachment 69575
In a move to burnish Britain’s green credentials, Boris Johnson is to announce a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030. He is following other political leaders, including Joe Biden, in promising lavish carrots to energise the market for electric cars as well as sticks to outlaw petrol cars. Unfortunately, electric cars will deliver only tiny emissions savings at a very high price.
Electric cars are certainly fun, but usually cost more across their lifetime than their petrol counterparts. That is why subsidies are needed. And consumers are put off by the vehicles’ short ranges and long recharging times. Despite the US offering up to $10,000 (£7,600) for each electric car, for example, fewer than 0.5 per cent of the nation’s cars are battery electric. And almost all the handouts go to the rich. Some 90 per cent of electric car owners also own a fossil-fuel car. Indeed, electric vehicles are mostly a “second car” used for shorter trips and virtue signalling.
If you subsidise electric cars enough, people will buy them. Almost 10 per cent of all Norway’s passenger cars are now electric thanks to generous policies that waive most costs. Over its lifetime, a £23,000 car might receive benefits worth more than £20,000. But this approach is unsustainable for most nations. Even Norway is starting to worry; exempt drivers cost the country more than a billion euros a year.
Innovation will eventually make electric cars economical even without subsidies, but concerns over range and slow recharging will remain. That is why scientific projections do not predict that electric cars will take over the world. A new study shows that by 2030, just 13 per cent of new cars will be battery electric. If Johnson bans new petrol cars by then, he will essentially be prohibiting 87 per cent of consumers from buying the cars they want. That hardly seems politically viable.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2030, if all countries live up to their promises, the world will have 140 million electric cars on the road. But this would not make a significant impact on emissions for two reasons. Firstly, electric cars require large batteries, which are often produced in China using coal power. The manufacture of one electric car battery releases almost a quarter of the greenhouse gases emitted by a petrol car across its entire lifetime.
Second, electric cars are recharged using electricity that is in most countries powered by fossil fuels. Together, this means that a long-range electric car will emit more CO2 for its first 60,000km than its petrol equivalent. This is why owning a second electric car for short trips could result in higher overall emissions. Comparing electric and petrol, the IEA estimates the electric car will save six tons of CO2 over its lifetime, assuming global average electricity emissions. Even if the electric car has a short range and its battery is made in Europe using mostly renewable energy, its savings will, at most, amount to 10 tons.
To use America as an example, if Biden restores the full electric car tax credit, he will essentially pay £5,700 to reduce emissions by up to 10 tons. Yet, he can get US power producers to cut 10 tons for just £45. Indeed, if the whole world follows through and gets to 140 million electric cars by 2030, the IEA estimates it will reduce emissions by just 190 million tons of CO2 – a mere 0.4 per cent of global emissions.
We need a reality check. First, politicians should stop writing huge cheques just because they believe electric cars are a major climate solution. Second, there is a simpler answer. The hybrid car saves about the same amount of CO2 as an electric car over its lifetime. Third, climate change doesn’t care where CO2 comes from. Personal cars represent about 7 per cent of global emissions, and electric cars will only help a little.
Right now, electric car subsidies are something wealthy countries can afford to offer virtue-signalling elites. But if we want to fix the climate, we need to focus on the big emitters and drive innovation in fusion, fission, geothermal, wind and solar energy. Advances that make any of these cheaper than fossil fuels would mean it is not just rich Londoners changing their habits, but everyone, including China and India, switching large parts of their energy consumption towards zero emissions.
Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center

Bjørn Lomborg

Bjørn Lomborg Credentials Background Bjørn Lomborg is a political scientist, economist, and the founder and president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center (CCC). Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus Center (CCC) was founded in 2006 in Denmark and registered as a non-profit organization in the United...

www.desmogblog.com

The Union of Concerned Scientists also authored a highly critical analysis of Lomborg’s first book. They state: [64]

“Lomborg’s book is seriously flawed and fails to meet basic standards of credible scientific analysis. The authors note how Lomborg consistently misuses, misrepresents or misinterprets data to greatly underestimate rates of species extinction, ignore evidence that billions of people lack access to clean water and sanitation, and minimize the extent and impacts of global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels and other human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases. Time and again, these experts find that Lomborg’s assertions and analyses are marred by flawed logic, inappropriate use of statistics and hidden value judgments. He uncritically and selectively cites literature—often not peer-reviewed— that supports his assertions, while ignoring or misinterpreting scientific evidence that does not. His consistently flawed use of scientific data is, in Peter Gleick’s words 'unexpected and disturbing in a statistician.'”

 

[Velma's Dad]

Don’t expect electric cars to save the planet
Banning petrol and diesel vehicles would deliver only minor emissions savings at a vast cost to consumers

Bjorn Lomborg
View attachment 69575
In a move to burnish Britain’s green credentials, Boris Johnson is to announce a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030. He is following other political leaders, including Joe Biden, in promising lavish carrots to energise the market for electric cars as well as sticks to outlaw petrol cars. Unfortunately, electric cars will deliver only tiny emissions savings at a very high price.
Electric cars are certainly fun, but usually cost more across their lifetime than their petrol counterparts. That is why subsidies are needed. And consumers are put off by the vehicles’ short ranges and long recharging times. Despite the US offering up to $10,000 (£7,600) for each electric car, for example, fewer than 0.5 per cent of the nation’s cars are battery electric. And almost all the handouts go to the rich. Some 90 per cent of electric car owners also own a fossil-fuel car. Indeed, electric vehicles are mostly a “second car” used for shorter trips and virtue signalling.
If you subsidise electric cars enough, people will buy them. Almost 10 per cent of all Norway’s passenger cars are now electric thanks to generous policies that waive most costs. Over its lifetime, a £23,000 car might receive benefits worth more than £20,000. But this approach is unsustainable for most nations. Even Norway is starting to worry; exempt drivers cost the country more than a billion euros a year.
Innovation will eventually make electric cars economical even without subsidies, but concerns over range and slow recharging will remain. That is why scientific projections do not predict that electric cars will take over the world. A new study shows that by 2030, just 13 per cent of new cars will be battery electric. If Johnson bans new petrol cars by then, he will essentially be prohibiting 87 per cent of consumers from buying the cars they want. That hardly seems politically viable.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2030, if all countries live up to their promises, the world will have 140 million electric cars on the road. But this would not make a significant impact on emissions for two reasons. Firstly, electric cars require large batteries, which are often produced in China using coal power. The manufacture of one electric car battery releases almost a quarter of the greenhouse gases emitted by a petrol car across its entire lifetime.
Second, electric cars are recharged using electricity that is in most countries powered by fossil fuels. Together, this means that a long-range electric car will emit more CO2 for its first 60,000km than its petrol equivalent. This is why owning a second electric car for short trips could result in higher overall emissions. Comparing electric and petrol, the IEA estimates the electric car will save six tons of CO2 over its lifetime, assuming global average electricity emissions. Even if the electric car has a short range and its battery is made in Europe using mostly renewable energy, its savings will, at most, amount to 10 tons.
To use America as an example, if Biden restores the full electric car tax credit, he will essentially pay £5,700 to reduce emissions by up to 10 tons. Yet, he can get US power producers to cut 10 tons for just £45. Indeed, if the whole world follows through and gets to 140 million electric cars by 2030, the IEA estimates it will reduce emissions by just 190 million tons of CO2 – a mere 0.4 per cent of global emissions.
We need a reality check. First, politicians should stop writing huge cheques just because they believe electric cars are a major climate solution. Second, there is a simpler answer. The hybrid car saves about the same amount of CO2 as an electric car over its lifetime. Third, climate change doesn’t care where CO2 comes from. Personal cars represent about 7 per cent of global emissions, and electric cars will only help a little.
Right now, electric car subsidies are something wealthy countries can afford to offer virtue-signalling elites. But if we want to fix the climate, we need to focus on the big emitters and drive innovation in fusion, fission, geothermal, wind and solar energy. Advances that make any of these cheaper than fossil fuels would mean it is not just rich Londoners changing their habits, but everyone, including China and India, switching large parts of their energy consumption towards zero emissions.
Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center

Classic case of a bloke who has taken a position and then tries to cherry-pick some evidence to support it. Lomborg has been doing that for 20 years since wrote his book "The Skeptical Environmentalist" which at the time he wrote it I thought was an interesting debate about CC futures but he doesn't seem to have moved on in his thinking since then.

Pretty much all the facts he cites are current point-in-time but he doesn't even acknowledge they're bound to change dramatically with take-up. Eg the cost of EVs: very likely to plummet with economies of scale and competitive effects; governments are fully expecting to taper subsidies down to nothing within just a few years.

Some of his statements in this article are plain stupid: "A new study shows that by 2030, just 13 per cent of new cars will be battery electric." Well, in the UK (the country he's writing about) ALL new cars will be EVs by 2030, and presumably a large proportion of those BEVs rather than hybrids.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Classic case of a bloke who has taken a position and then tries to cherry-pick some evidence to support it. Lomborg has been doing that for 20 years since wrote his book "The Skeptical Environmentalist" which at the time he wrote it I thought was an interesting debate about CC futures but he doesn't seem to have moved on in his thinking since then.

Pretty much all the facts he cites are current point-in-time but he doesn't even acknowledge they're bound to change dramatically with take-up. Eg the cost of EVs: very likely to plummet with economies of scale and competitive effects; governments are fully expecting to taper subsidies down to nothing within just a few years.

Some of his statements in this article are plain stupid: "A new study shows that by 2030, just 13 per cent of new cars will be battery electric." Well, in the UK (the country he's writing about) ALL new cars will be EVs by 2030, and presumably a large proportion of those BEVs rather than hybrids.

Haven’t read the small print but does the UK’s 2030 EV target apply to all vehicles or just ‘cars’? What about lorries, vans, tractors, buses, coaches, fire engines, ambulances, etc, etc.

 

[Thepuma]

Just a thought but....if ALL cars are electric, if you have a long commute and live in a block of flats, how on earth are you going to charge the car up?

 

[willwander]

Tesla shares up 20% in the past three days.
Tesla up 485% year to date
ExxonMobil down -45% year to date
Follow the money.

 

[WelshGas]

Classic case of a bloke who has taken a position and then tries to cherry-pick some evidence to support it. Lomborg has been doing that for 20 years since wrote his book "The Skeptical Environmentalist" which at the time he wrote it I thought was an interesting debate about CC futures but he doesn't seem to have moved on in his thinking since then.

Pretty much all the facts he cites are current point-in-time but he doesn't even acknowledge they're bound to change dramatically with take-up. Eg the cost of EVs: very likely to plummet with economies of scale and competitive effects; governments are fully expecting to taper subsidies down to nothing within just a few years.

Some of his statements in this article are plain stupid: "A new study shows that by 2030, just 13 per cent of new cars will be battery electric." Well, in the UK (the country he's writing about) ALL new cars will be EVs by 2030, and presumably a large proportion of those BEVs rather than hybrids.

I think he was referring to the World. Can’t see there being many EVs in the countries like India and the countries of the Southern Hemisphere.

 

[WelshGas]

Just a thought but....if ALL cars are electric, if you have a long commute and live in a block of flats, how on earth are you going to charge the car up?

With difficulty.

 

[WelshGas]

Haven’t read the small print but does the UK’s 2030 EV target apply to all vehicles or just ‘cars’? What about lorries, vans, tractors, buses, coaches, fire engines, ambulances, etc, etc.

Just cars.

 

[WelshGas]

Classic case of a bloke who has taken a position and then tries to cherry-pick some evidence to support it. Lomborg has been doing that for 20 years since wrote his book "The Skeptical Environmentalist" which at the time he wrote it I thought was an interesting debate about CC futures but he doesn't seem to have moved on in his thinking since then.

Pretty much all the facts he cites are current point-in-time but he doesn't even acknowledge they're bound to change dramatically with take-up. Eg the cost of EVs: very likely to plummet with economies of scale and competitive effects; governments are fully expecting to taper subsidies down to nothing within just a few years.

Some of his statements in this article are plain stupid: "A new study shows that by 2030, just 13 per cent of new cars will be battery electric." Well, in the UK (the country he's writing about) ALL new cars will be EVs by 2030, and presumably a large proportion of those BEVs rather than hybrids.

Only 10 yrs to find out who is correct.

 

[Louis II]

For me the most interesting part of the wider announcement was the development of hydrogen generation and mention of its use for transport applications.
Much better fit for a Cali in my opinion.
With the end of ICE drawing nearer it will be interesting to see if ULEZs etc increse or if they will become unnecessary as more and more switch to EVs.

 

[SusiBus]

Just watched a video on YouTube on the all new MGB EV. At first, seemed a bit of a risky venture. After further thought, l think there could be quite a few export markets for them. US West Coast, Japan, China. All hold MG in higher regard than in the UK.

 

[VWCoastbusters]

Very interesting vehicles but they don't seem that stable to me.

If you are interested, there is a great YouTube series entitled "Kinging It". In one episode the two young bloggers buy one and travel down India in it. Later on in the series they have it imported to Britain and drive it back to Wales from the docks. Unfortunately, they flip it over on the approach to a tight bend causing much damage to both vehicle and their pride. Fortunately, Craig and Amy had no serious injuries.

I started watching their blogs which are mainly about their buying an old Mercedes Bus, converting it to a very comfortable MH and then going on their travels around Europe and the UK. They are both very watchable. I recommend watching them.

LOVE Kinging It

 

[Velma's Dad]

I think he was referring to the World. Can’t see there being many EVs in the countries like India and the countries of the Southern Hemisphere.

Doubtless true for a lot of the global South but on the other hand India might end up being a big market for EVs as much of the population is becoming urbanised. I read somewhere that the Indian govt expects fast EV take-up in two/three wheel segments and light commercial, slower in passenger cars. Not sure when we'll see the first battery powered Hindustan Ambassador, someone's probably done it by now.

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Just watched a video on YouTube on the all new MGB EV. At first, seemed a bit of a risky venture. After further thought, l think there could be quite a few export markets for them. US West Coast, Japan, China. All hold MG in higher regard than in the UK.

Electric Mustang coming soon.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Just watched a video on YouTube on the all new MGB EV. At first, seemed a bit of a risky venture. After further thought, l think there could be quite a few export markets for them. US West Coast, Japan, China. All hold MG in higher regard than in the UK.

Owning an MGB would be punishment enough. But an electric MGB? Thinking pulling own brains out through nostrils with crochet hooks would be better...

But seriously, £90k?

 

[Simon1]

Just a thought but....if ALL cars are electric, if you have a long commute and live in a block of flats, how on earth are you going to charge the car up?

A really long extension lead

 

[Simon1]

Wonder what the caravan community thinks of these proposals, Small EV’s aren’t going to be much good at towing caravans around, not far anyway with their limited amount of batteries, so is it the end for them or will manufacturers start incorporating batteries into caravans to feed the car pulling it.

 

[Amarillo]

Hi all. This is my first time posting but I have been following for a few months since placing an order for a new VW California, due in March 2021. In light of the plan to bring forward the ban on new diesel and petrol vehicles in 2030, do people think this is not a good idea now? We had our hearts set on our new van, and have started buying things to fill it, but we are now worried it will have poor resale value etc. On the other hand, is it's our van and we keep it for years without selling it, the ban should have little impact. We would really value your thoughts! Sarah

Maybe I'm taking what I hear too literally, but isn't the proposed ban for new petrol and diesel cars. Not vans, not trucks, not lorries, not campervans, but cars. Now I can see a Caravelle falling into the car category, but a California? Maybe a Beach Tour, but not a Beach Camper, Coast or Ocean.

 

[davidgmo]

I have a friend who is an expert in the energy generation business and also has worked in the automotive industry.

He said even if just a majority of drivers in the UK ran exclusively electric vehicles the UK would need up to 20 new power stations to deliver the overnight power supply load to charge that many vehicles at once.

Now we all know how fast (not) they are building those - maybe one every 10 years? Go figure how Boris is going the deliver his latest promise then?

A bit like "we have world-beating test and trace system" and "millions of tests every day". Dream on Boris

 

[Dottybus]

The positive side of this is that at least for us polluters we get the pick of the not so busy non electric hook up pitches.

 

[Thepuma]

A really long extension lead

In my ftiends flat it would need to be long enough to feed down 15 flights of stairs...down through the ground hallway, through the concierge area and right across the car park...a 400 metre cable should do it.....but I'd imagine a tripping a hazard would be the biggest problem...and it stopping doors closing.

The way round it is the make it law that every car park has to have 'x' number of charging points...can I see that happening by 2030...absolutely no chance.

For me they need to increase the range to 4 or 5 hundred miles before they become viable. Both mine and the gf parents are 250 miles away...so at the moment we would need to stop halfway to charge...then charge at destination...then charge halfway back......as I say...total unviable...if thats a word.lol

 

[Thepuma]

The positive side of this is that at least for us polluters we get the pick of the not so busy non electric hook up pitches.

Is there zero pollution on making all this electricity we will need to run cars?

 

[Bellcrew]

Maybe our dependency on any form of motorised transportation will change over the forthcoming years and the total number of vehicle movements decreases dramatically. We'll continue to WTF, we'll no longer drive to the shops, we'll spend more time within our communities rather than going further field. So it might not necessarily be the cars that change but us that change the way we live our lives. This current debate assumes that we'll carry on living the way we did pre lockdown but maybe we won't. On average my car probably sits on the drive or in a car park for 23 hours a day which seems a real waste of a depreciating asset. Perhaps I could share the car as well as some of the.cost.

Hoping Thompson and Morgan are busy budding the millions of magic money trees needed over the next few years, the whole of the political class is depending on it.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Maybe I'm taking what I hear too literally, but isn't the proposed ban for new petrol and diesel cars. Not vans, not trucks, not lorries, not campervans, but cars. Now I can see a Caravelle falling into the car category, but a California? Maybe a Beach Tour, but not a Beach Camper, Coast or Ocean.

No, it appears to be cars AND vans. So you can rest your taxonomic muscles, unless govt changes its mind ALL Calis will presumably get caught by this (unless you can find a way to get them reclassified as maybe... dunno... mobile poultry accommodation?).

Hybrids will be allowed until 2035 but I imagine manufacturers may see that as a dead end route and aim to switch entirely to BEVs?

(I saw somewhere that the definition of a hybrid will be a vehicle that can travel at least a reasonable distance in non-emitting mode. The figure of 30 miles was mentioned.)

I'm sure many ICE vans will continue to be produced for other markets but I'd guess the government might ban their import to UK? Just speculating.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Just cars.

It's cars AND vans, according to the govt's press release. Hybrids allowed until 2035.