France in August?

[Lambeth Cali]

I tend to think that we are entering the phase where 'we have to live with it' as the World must be running out of government support (financial mainly) and the need for normal commercial/work activity is becoming higher on the reasons to avoid lock down again.

I’m sure your right.
Infection numbers, no matter how high, and possibly even deaths, with presumably some limit, are now becoming irrelevant. The only thing Whitty and Valence appear to have focussed Boris on is hospitalisations. That’s where the goal posts have moved to. We only have so many beds… if they get too high, something will need to be done to bring them down.

 

[B J G]

Hospitals need to get back to normal care of all illnesses, backlog is alarming.
decades of NHS cutbacks has taken it's predictable toll but that's another issue.

At least France has now removed the travel curfew for those who go over.

 

[jimmywease]

I’m sure your right.
Infection numbers, no matter how high, and possibly even deaths, with presumably some limit, are now becoming irrelevant. The only thing Whitty and Valence appear to have focussed Boris on is hospitalisations. That’s where the goal posts have moved to. We only have so many beds… if they get too high, something will need to be done to bring them down.

I believe that govt covid restrictions have only ever been based on hospital numbers and this continues to be the case.

 

[WelshGas]

Europe have yet to see the “ Delta “ wave, but they will. The whole world will.

Travel restrictions, quarantines or lockdowns will just slow it down, but it is inevitable, and how bad it will be is totally dependent on the vaccination rate.

 

[Amarillo]

Europe have yet to see the “ Delta “ wave, but they will. The whole world will.

Travel restrictions, quarantines or lockdowns will just slow it down, but it is inevitable, and how bad it will be is totally dependent on the vaccination rate.

No one in Europe (apart from perhaps Denmark) knows how widespread the delta variant is. They don’t test for it!

 

[bob_summers]

No one in Europe (apart from perhaps Denmark) knows how widespread the delta variant is. They don’t test for it!

They do here. Predicting it to be the dominant strain by mid July.

 

[clarinetbcn]

No one in Europe (apart from perhaps Denmark) knows how widespread the delta variant is. They don’t test for it!

That’s not the case, at least in Spain.

Madrid brings forward second AstraZeneca shot for 60-69 group as more cases of delta variant are detected

According to the deputy health chief, there is already community transmission in the region of this strain, which was first identified in India

www.google.es

 

[bob_summers]

Or in france

114 cases of Covid-19 Delta variant traced in southwest France

The cases were confirmed in the Landes this week. People are urged to get fully vaccinated as soon as possible

www.connexionfrance.com

 

[Amarillo]

Fair enough.

It still remains the case that Britain and Denmark lead in genetic sequencing of variants by some margin:

Why has the Delta variant spread so quickly in UK? - BBC News

It is now the dominant strain in the UK - but the rest of the world may well follow suit.

www.bbc.co.uk

But not very helpful if when you spot a new variant rampaging through another country you fling your border open to welcome that new variant!

 

[WelshGas]

Fair enough.

It still remains the case that Britain and Denmark lead in genetic sequencing of variants by some margin:

Why has the Delta variant spread so quickly in UK? - BBC News

It is now the dominant strain in the UK - but the rest of the world may well follow suit.

www.bbc.co.uk

But not very helpful if when you spot a new variant rampaging through another country you fling your border open to welcome that new variant!

Better now, than during the Autumn or Winter months.

 

[Velma's Dad]

I've seen various figures from various European countries that suggest Delta is not yet predominant in any other than the UK. And that is consistent with what UK authorities have more-or-less admitted (eg Susan Hopkins of PHE, on Marr this morning), that the failure to red-list India will have caused the extensive seeding of Delta into the UK in April, which explains the UK's accelerating case totals since mid-May.

Supporting that analysis, none of our major continental neighbours have yet seen any rise in overall cases, so I think we can conclude from that that Delta has not yet taken a substantial hold there. If we find that it does start to ramp up in the next week or two, that would still put them about 6 weeks 'behind' the UK on the Delta wave, and it maybe longer.

The question then is where will the continental countries be on their vaccination rates when they reach the UK's current position on the Delta epi-curve, perhaps during August. It looks to me about similar. However that doesn't of course bode well for UK-continental travel in that time frame.

 

[Amarillo]

However that doesn't of course bode well for UK-continental travel in that time frame.

Yes - up until last night when I saw online that UK infection rates are ~10 times higher than many of our European neighbours, I had hope that a French camping holiday over the last two weeks of August might be possible. That hope is gone.

 

[bob_summers]

listening to radio earlier, Spain intends to get 70% fully vaccinated by late August. Think it’s 40% currently have both doses, slightly up on the EU avg.
Delta variant sits at 10% of cases now compared with 76% over the border in Portugal, and will be the dominant strain by mid July.

edit Portugal is 76 not 90%

 

[Velma's Dad]

Delta variant sits at 10% of cases now compared with 90% over the border in Portugal, and will be the dominant strain by mid July.

I didn't know that Portugal estimate on Delta. According to 'World in Data', Portugal's case totals started trending up in May, around the same time as UK's.

 

[bob_summers]

When did Portugal open up travel from the UK? Mid May?

Here’s those delta rates, I mixed up Portugal but it’s still way ahead of the rest of EU

 

[Amarillo]

I didn't know that Portugal estimate on Delta. According to 'World in Data', Portugal's case totals started trending up in May, around the same time as UK's.

View attachment 80295

It demonstrates the folly of the Portuguese government in welcoming British holidaymakers once it was on the British Green List. A five week window to allow the delta variant to spread across Portugal like wildfire.

There’s a good simulation of the effect on travel between communities at 13:00 here:

 

[Velma's Dad]

Yes yet another assumption in the UK's pandemic contingency plan that proved wrong, or at least situationally inappropriate. It turns out that well no, you can't use border closures to ultimately prevent community transmission taking hold (unless you're NZ or somewhere) BUT you CAN certainly use it to buy you valuable time when you're ramping up countermeasures. If your government isn't fixated on trade deals at the time of course.

Unfortunately the next pandemic could easily be with us long before the covid enquiry has eventually emerged from its lengthy kicking down the road, so a lot of these basic lessons won't necessarily be taken on board.

 

[jimmywease]

Yes - up until last night when I saw online that UK infection rates are ~10 times higher than many of our European neighbours, I had hope that a French camping holiday over the last two weeks of August might be possible. That hope is gone.

I’m afraid you’re probably right. Just booked Cairngorms for August (starts searching midge-hoods...)

Will there be a new thread “Scotland in August?” if hospitalisations rise and restrictions increase?

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

I’m afraid you’re probably right. Just booked Cairngorms for August (starts searching midge-hoods...)

Will there be a new thread “Scotland in August?” if hospitalisations rise and restrictions increase?

Let’s hope travel restrictions in/out of Scotland are not reimposed. :-(

 

[WelshGas]

Let’s hope travel restrictions in/out of Scotland are not reimposed. :-(

They have if you come from Manchester.

 

[Amarillo]

UK infection rates are ~10 times higher than many of our European neighbours

 

[Wongo]

Mr Mustique strikes again!

 

[WelshGas]

View attachment 80316

How many countries are doing Asymptomatic testing?

 

[Amarillo]

How many countries are doing Asymptomatic testing?

I have no idea.

Britain now has testing nailed, and the vaccine rollout is amazing. Yet it still seems slow to react, as it has been throughout this pandemic.

 

[WelshGas]

I have no idea.

Britain now has testing nailed, and the vaccine rollout is amazing. Yet it still seems slow to react, as it has been throughout this pandemic.

Therefore that Table is meaningless.


With Hindsight - possibly. With Foresight - disagree.