Diesel ban 2030

[WelshGas]

No, it appears to be cars AND vans. So you can rest your taxonomic muscles, unless govt changes its mind ALL Calis will presumably get caught by this (unless you can find a way to get them reclassified as maybe... dunno... mobile poultry accommodation?).

Hybrids will be allowed until 2035 but I imagine manufacturers may see that as a dead end route and aim to switch entirely to BEVs?

(I saw somewhere that the definition of a hybrid will be a vehicle that can travel at least a reasonable distance in non-emitting mode. The figure of 30 miles was mentioned.)

I'm sure many ICE vans will continue to be produced for other markets but I'd guess the government might ban their import to UK? Just speculating.

Car derived vans possibly.

 

[subthree]

I am REALLY going to need to look after our 2020 T6.1 to last way beyond 2030. No way I am going to be buying a Ford based Cali in a few years to replace it.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Is there zero pollution on making all this electricity we will need to run cars?

Oh dear you don't seem to have been keeping up.

Put simply, no of course not, all electricity generation emits CO2 in varying degrees, from a lot for coal generation to very little for renewables. Whatever the generation mix, the net level after distribution losses is still less than the CO2 exhaust emissions from a petrol or diesel car. UK gen mix is expected to be half renewables by 2025, and mostly renewables plus a rump of natural gas by 2040. Yes the UK is well placed because of wind resources but it's the UK we're talking about with the announced 2030 ICE phase out.

Embodied energy in car manufacturing (both for ICE and EV) depends largely on the gen mix in the country of manufacture. China (a lot of cars, and EV batts, likely to be built there in next decades) will be slow to switch from coal power although mitigation technologies including plant-level carbon capture will probably have some positive impact on their emissions. (Actually I suspect the CO2 in batteries dimension will impel car manufacturers to locate battery manufacture in countries with a reasonable gen mix, as it's going to be in the spotlight from at least some consumers especially the younger ones.)

Analyses vary depending on all these assumptions, but most studies model that in most markets EVs already have life-cycle emissions lower than ICE equivalents, and the gap is bound to widen as electricity generation continues to decarbonise.

No it's not the whole solution to climate change, but one of a number of linked efforts that collectively reduce emissions and their harmful effects over the next two or three decades. We may not be bothered but our kids certainly are.

There are lots of other dimensions to the EV debate apart from carbon, including issues around battery materials, eg artisanal mining of cobalt in DR Congo just to name one. That's as with any major technology shift, eg the development of LEDs is said to be causing significant health impacts due to light pollution and its effects on sleep quality and thereby on diabetes, high blood pressure, and depression. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

On the plus side, EVs will substantially improve local air quality in urban areas (not totally, as particulates still generated by brake linings etc, while the 'last generation;' of ICE cars will have the best NOx and particulate controls and be banned from many city centres anyway) but as localised air pollution currently contributes to 40,000 early deaths a year in the UK alone, that of itself is quite a big deal if we could reduce it by even a proportion (we're willing to spend hundreds of billions to save broadly similar numbers of lives from Covid).

But DYOR.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Car derived vans possibly.

From Parkers website: " It looks as though this ban will extend to vans and pickup trucks weighing under 3.5 tonnes (3.5t or 3,500kg) as well as passenger cars."

I don't know how reliable that report is.

 

[Simon1]

In my ftiends flat it would need to be long enough to feed down 15 flights of stairs...down through the ground hallway, through the concierge area and right across the car park...a 400 metre cable should do it.....but I'd imagine a tripping a hazard would be the biggest problem...and it stopping doors closing.

The way round it is the make it law that every car park has to have 'x' number of charging points...can I see that happening by 2030...absolutely no chance.

For me they need to increase the range to 4 or 5 hundred miles before they become viable. Both mine and the gf parents are 250 miles away...so at the moment we would need to stop halfway to charge...then charge at destination...then charge halfway back......as I say...total unviable...if thats a word.lol

I don’t know why manufacturers haven’t arranged between themselves a set of standardised batteries that can be autonomously attached with a quick release system to the underside of a vehicle when it’s driven over a pit with sliding hatch where a mechanised system whips off the spent battery and swaps for a fully charged one in a few minutes. You would get a full charge straightaway, the petrol companies with investment can make money pretty much the same way and service stations still have there shops as an incentive.

 

[flying banana]

Only 10 yrs to find out who is correct.

9 years 1 month

 

[flying banana]

has anyone had a look into how much energy all the data centres are using to run the internet ? it's a huge problem measured in tera watt hours. just for the uk. zoom calls and sending pics of your private parts to a girl are a huge environmental problem ( i need to change my habits for the good of the planet)

 

[WelshGas]

9 years 1 month

In fact 9 yrs 1 month and 11 days.
I just rounded it up. I suppose I could have rounded it down to 9 years or rounded up to the nearest Decade.

 

[Amarillo]

Maybe our dependency on any form of motorised transportation will change over the forthcoming years and the total number of vehicle movements decreases dramatically. We'll continue to WTF, we'll no longer drive to the shops, we'll spend more time within our communities rather than going further field. So it might not necessarily be the cars that change but us that change the way we live our lives. This current debate assumes that we'll carry on living the way we did pre lockdown but maybe we won't. On average my car probably sits on the drive or in a car park for 23 hours a day which seems a real waste of a depreciating asset. Perhaps I could share the car as well as some of the.cost.

My utopia for London is a city where on street parking is banned, and the space currently used for stationary cars given over to scooters, e-scooters, bicycles and e-bikes.

On Sunday I cycled with my six year old son between Tower Bridge and the Rotherhithe Tunnel on the brand new segregated cycle lane alongside Jamaica Road, with bus bays and loading bays between the cycle track and main carriageway. It was glorious and not a route I would have considered safe for a six year old a few months ago.

Crossing Tower Bridge was still a challenge.

 

[andyinluton]

Bigger water tank & we can soon get the weight over 3.5tnne, problem solved.

 

[WelshGas]

Bigger water tank & we can soon get the weight over 3.5tnne, problem solved.

LWB or T32? base.

 

[WelshGas]

My utopia for London is a city where on street parking is banned, and the space currently used for stationary cars given over to scooters, e-scooters, bicycles and e-bikes.

On Sunday I cycled with my six year old son between Tower Bridge and the Rotherhithe Tunnel on the brand new segregated cycle lane alongside Jamaica Road, with bus bays and loading bays between the cycle track and main carriageway. It was glorious and not a route I would have considered safe for a six year old a few months ago.

Crossing Tower Bridge was still a challenge.
View attachment 69595

But that has nothing to do with whether vehicles are ICE or EV.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

Maybe I'm taking what I hear too literally, but isn't the proposed ban for new petrol and diesel cars. Not vans, not trucks, not lorries, not campervans, but cars. Now I can see a Caravelle falling into the car category, but a California? Maybe a Beach Tour, but not a Beach Camper, Coast or Ocean.

It’s a ban on new cars and vans.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

VW have been making the same van since 2005. I saw that they do finally seem to be producing an actual new Transporter. I guess this will include a hybrid option. Will they decide to make a new California?
Whether they do or don’t, I can only see resale values staying rock solid.
When lead free petrol came in they didn’t retrospectively ban classic cars. Eventually though Lead Replacement Petrol got difficult to find. I had a 80s Merc and a 1969 Triumph Herald.
I don’t think there will be a desire to ban older campervans and spoil our legitimate hobby. I suppose I wonder whether it will get more difficult to buy diesel in 2035 when hybrids are banned. There are already options to convert vans to electric power but it’s eye wateringly expensive but in 15 years time if it’s affordable I would consider it.
Either way it doesn’t worry me.

 

[Lambeth Cali]

VW have been making the same van since 2005. I saw that they do finally seem to be producing an actual new Transporter. I guess this will include a hybrid option. Will they decide to make a new California?
Whether they do or don’t, I can only see resale values staying rock solid.
When lead free petrol came in they didn’t retrospectively ban classic cars. Eventually though Lead Replacement Petrol got difficult to find. I had a 80s Merc and a 1969 Triumph Herald.
I don’t think there will be a desire to ban older campervans and spoil our legitimate hobby. I suppose I wonder whether it will get more difficult to buy diesel in 2035 when hybrids are banned. There are already options to convert vans to electric power but it’s eye wateringly expensive but in 15 years time if it’s affordable I would consider it.
Either way it doesn’t worry me.

 

[B J G]

Bigger water tank & we can soon get the weight over 3.5tnne, problem solved.

Not that simple, chassis & suspension needs to be designed to take the weight basically to do that you end up with a Grand California - the only Cali in future?

 

[Scoobz1]

If you notice ALL the talk is about Banning Diesel and Petrol, as well as Hybrid CARS.

Absolutely no mention of Commercial Vehicles. Until there are significant advances in the technology I believe Diesel/Petrol and maybe Hybrid commercial vehicles will be around a lot longer.

Significant hybrids will get an extension to 2035 .... significant is yet to be defined ...
I would be more worried about what is going to replace the duty they make on petrol and diesel (circa 60-70% of the cost per litre).

Tax as percentage of UK pump price

The interactive chart below shows how taxation on petrol and diesel (duty and VAT) has changed as a proportion of the pump price over time (weekly, rolling ten

www.racfoundation.org

Presumably they will charge for road mile usage to offset this and legacy diesel and petrol cars may also get caught up in this, plus pay the normal duty on petrol and duty given the way Governments & Tax works and to act as a further incentive for electric

 

[Velma's Dad]

Presumably they will charge for road mile usage to offset this and legacy diesel and petrol cars may also get caught up in this, plus pay the normal duty on petrol and duty given the way Governments & Tax works and to act as a further incentive for electric

Yes there have been noises made this week about a future road pricing scheme. I assume that's quite likely some time in the next five years or so. Seems to me a reasonable way to tax as it's progressive and can give discounts/waivers in some cases eg for people with mobility problems. Also gives a way of managing congestion (the 'polluter pays' principle) - works well to keep traffic moving in Singapore, apparently. No doubt the motoring orgs will squeal, they always do.

 

[Bellcrew]

Yes there have been noises made this week about a future road pricing scheme. I assume that's quite likely some time in the next five years or so. Seems to me a reasonable way to tax as it's progressive and can give discounts/waivers in some cases eg for people with mobility problems. Also gives a way of managing congestion (the 'polluter pays' principle) - works well to keep traffic moving in Singapore, apparently. No doubt the motoring orgs will squeal, they always do.

Unfortunately people on modest incomes who live in the majority of the country without decent local public transport will have to pay through the nose to subsidise those fortunate few who live in metropolitan areas, not progressive at all.

 

[Velma's Dad]

Unfortunately people on modest incomes who live in the majority of the country without decent local public transport will have to pay through the nose to subsidise those fortunate few who live in metropolitan areas, not progressive at all.

Not necessarily, or indeed at all. Road pricing schemes usually charge on a variable 'congestion pricing;' basis, ie taking into account the traffic level on a stretch of road not just simply the distance travelled. People in rural areas would thereby pay a fairly low rate per mile. Unlike fuel duty which is much more closely linked to mileage covered so, arguably, is less fair on rural motorists.

(I'm not sure what you mean by "majority of the country", or "fortunate few". More than 80% of the population live in urban areas. Some of them are rich and some are poor, just like in the shire counties.)

 

[andyinluton]

Unfortunately people on modest incomes who live in the majority of the country without decent local public transport will have to pay through the nose to subsidise those fortunate few who live in metropolitan areas, not progressive at all.

That would be the same people that expect the people in metropolitan areas on higher incomes to pay more tax to subsidise those in other areas. Heres the Gov breakdown of where people lived in 2014

Category	Population	Proportion (%)
Rural, comprising:	9,260,892	17.0
Rural town and fringe	5,003,956	9.2
of which those in a sparse setting	192,085	0.4
Rural village and hamlet	4,256,936	7.8
of which those in a sparse setting	298,045	0.5
Urban, comprising:	45,055,726	83.0
Urban major conurbation	19,415,739	35.7
Urban minor conurbation	1,948,518	3.6
Urban city and town	23,691,469	43.6
of which those in a sparse setting	90,397	0.2
England	54,316,618	100.0

 

[danvan]

Just a thought but....if ALL cars are electric, if you have a long commute and live in a block of flats, how on earth are you going to charge the car up?

Charge it where you park it?

 

[GrumpyGranddad]

Is there zero pollution on making all this electricity we will need to run cars?

No, and nor is there zero pollution in the manufacture of the cars, and batteries, and the supporting infrastucture. Would be very interesting to know how many years it takes for an EV to repay it’s environmental debt and actually show a net benefit.

 

[Thepuma]

Charge it where you park it?

Youre assuming all car parks and all roadsides will have charging points at every parking space.

 

[The Pox]

I have the solution. Get an angle grinder and cut two holes in the floor and pedal it like the Flintstones! Who is going be the first to try it and show us with photos... Patent it and sell the idea to VW. They would bring it in as a £1000 option.